THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 18 JANUARY 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007650
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 18, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
January 18, 1974
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declassification schedule of ED. 11652
. exemption category 5B(1).(21.(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
January 18, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Press reportsindicate that Syria has threatened
to break relations with Egypt because of Cairo's
agreement to disengage forces.. If these reports
are accurate., Syrian President Asad may be in
trouble. The Israeli Government is under fire
from conservatives; demonstrationsarethreatened
for Sunday, (Page 1)
The Indonesian Government has clamped, down on dis-
sent following several days of.street,violence in
Jakarta. (Page 3)
Intercepted messages indicate_that the Khmer Com-
munists plan a major attackagainst Phnom Penh's
southern defenses- in the near future, (Page 4)
Israel's tank inventory is estimated to be greater
now than before the war as a result of its absorp-
tion of large numbers of captured armor. (Page 5)
Recent improvements in the Ho Chi Minh Trail per-
mit North Vietnamese infiltrators to ,move now by
truck at a much faster pace than previously.
(Page 6)
Chinese and South Vietnamese nationals may have
clashed recently over. Chinese occupation of one of
the disputed Paracel Islands. (Page 7)
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MIDDLE EAST
Syria threatened to sever relations with Cairo
yesterday following the announcement of the Egyptian-
Israeli disengagement agreement, according to a press
report from Damascus. If the report is accurate,
President Asad may have been forced to make the threat
by those in the military and Baath Party who strongly
oppose negotiations with Israel.
"Authoritative sources" were quoted by the press
report as stating that Damascus viewed the disengage-
ment agreement as an act of treachery that would lead
to the "liquidation" of the Palestinian question and
of Arab interests as a whole.
Asad's position could be seriously weakened by
this turn of events. Only a few days ago he seemed
ready to enter negotiations.
Asad was said to have called a meeting of polit-
ical leaders to announce that Syria would attend the
Geneva conference. To underscore the decision, he
reportedly named the Syrian delegation and said he
intended to reshuffle the cabinet, presumably to re-
place those opposing such a move. Most prominent
among those rumored to be replaced was Foreign Minis-
ter Khaddam, who is said to have threatened to resign
rather than represent Syria at the peace talks.
Syria's reaction could pose particular problems
for Egyptian President Sadat. He can point to suc-
cess in the disengagement talks as a counter to mil-
itant Arabs who contend that only war can bring prog-
ress toward a complete Israeli withdrawal, but with-
out Asad's support Sadat has less of a counter to
charges that Egypt is negotiating unilaterally, dis-
regarding Arab interests.
Sadat had already been planning a trip to Da-
mascus, as well as other Arab capitals, presumably
to coordinate positions in the aftermath of the
negotiations. The trip now takes on added urgency.
Egypt clearly regards Syrian-Israeli disengagement
as a necessary next step, and views Syrian partici-
pation in the broader Geneva negotiations as a key
factor in the talks.
Sadat probably hopes he can convince the Syrians
that Cairo does not intend to abandon the Arab cause
for the sake of a comprehensive bilateral settlement
with Tel Aviv, and that Syrian participation in the
coming talks could benefit Damascus.
(continued)
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As yet, there has been no reaction to the dis-
engagement announcement from Saudi Arabia or other
Arab oil-producing states. Neither has there been
any indication whether it will lead to a lifting of
the oil embargo and an increase in production.
The evidence suggests that King Faysal may not
have made up his mind whether to declare an end to
the embargo in conjunction with disengagement on the
Egyptian front. The terms and timetable of the accord
may be a telling factor in his decision.
Israel views its approval of the accord as a
major concession to the Arabs. Tel Aviv will likely
regard Cairo's adherence to the agreement as the pre-
requisite for further steps toward a comprehensive
settlement. Although the Meir government conceded
that it had to make the first move, it is likely to
proceed cautiously in withdrawing its forces from
the Suez Canal into the Sinai, constantly alert for
any sign Cairo is not keeping its end of the bargain.
The government has already come under sharp
criticism for making the agreement with Cairo. The
right-wing Likud--the country's second largest polit-
ical grouping--is calling for street demonstrations
on Sunday to protest the alleged "surrender and one-
sided withdrawal."
Mrs. Meir's efforts to form a new coalition gov-
ernment will probably not be affected by the agree-
ment. Likud, her major domestic political opponent,
is not in the running for coalition membership, and
the parties that are do not share Likud's opposition
to territorial concessions in the Sinai.
Moscow quickly issued the text of President
Nixon's statement, including the phrase that the
disengagement agreement had been reached "with the
help of the Government of the United States of
America." The Soviets did not, however, report any
of the related remarks made by the President. Moscow
obviously is not pleased with the fact that it played
little or no role in bringing about disengagement.
The Soviets, nevertheless, have little choice but to
support the agreement as a step toward a Middle East
settlement.
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INDONESIA
The government has decided to clamp down on
dissent in the wake of this week's urban violence
in Jakarta. According to a government statement:
--demonstrations that can lead to disorder
will be prohibited;
--universities will be "protected" from polit-
ical activities;
--newspaper reporting will be "regulated"; and
--those responsible for the recent disorders
will be punished.
This morning, troops occupied the University.
of Indonesia, and the government shut down three
radio stations and a newspaper.
Security officials now admit that most of the
violence was caused by nonstudent street toughs,
but they are nevertheless arresting student leaders
as an object lesson. Officials are publicly blaming
the students for starting something they could not
control, while many of the students themselves are
appalled at the outcome of the anti-Japanese pro-
tests and are working with the authorities to re-
store order.
The rapidity with which the protest escalated
proves that the students' criticism of Japanese
business practices and of the high living of the
Jakarta elite struck a sympathetic chord among the
general 'population. The subsequent violence, how-
ever, may well have canceled any gains the student
movement might have made. The new government line
suggests that the violence also gave pause to those
within the ruling group who were beginning to cham-
pion the students cause.
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Phnom Penh
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CAMBODIA
Recent intercepted messages indicate that the
Khmer Communists plan a coordinated attack against
Phnom Penh's southern defenses. As many as three
Communist regiments will reportedly attack the
western end of the defense line between Routes 3
and 4. If the Communists penetrate the city's out-
lying defenses, they evidently intend to hit targets
in and around Phnom Penh itself. The overall opera-
tion could involve 4,500 troops.
The Communist move may not develop entirely as
planned, however. Units located southeast of the
capital have postponed participation until early
next week, and others have failed to launch prelim-
inary attacks on schedule. Many of the units in-
volved are made up of inexperienced troops or have
already seen heavy combat this dry season.
In anticipation of the attack, the government
has approximately 5,000 troops, backed by artillery
and armored units, in positions south of Phnom Penh.
But most of the army's reserve force is already tied
down, and the government will be hard pressed to
find substantial reinforcements for either the south
or the northwestern front, where heavy fighting con-
tinues.
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ISRAEL
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INDOCHINA
Intercepted communications suggest the North
Vietnamese have so improved the Ho Chi Minh Trail
complex that they can now use trucks throughout most
of the system to transport infiltrating troops. In-
filtrators can reach South Vietnam's northern prov-
inces in less than a week, the central highlands in
about three weeks, and the COSVN area in about a
month. After arriving in South Vietnam, however,
it still takes another two weeks to integrate the
troops into their units.
The overall improvement of the infiltration
system has taken place since the cease-fire. It
appears to be part of North Vietnam's long-range
plan to build firm and effective links with Commu-
nist-controlled areas in the south, and is not
necessarily related to any short-range military
intentions. In fact, parts of the network in South
Vietnam and Laos are still under construction.
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ParaCal Islands
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Robert, ? Pattie
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PHILIPPINES
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CHINA - SOUTH VIETNAM
Chinese and South Vietnamese nationals may have
clashed on January 16 over Chinese occupation of
Robert Island in the disputed Paracel Islands. Sai-
gon reports that South Vietnamese soldiers fired on
the Chinese when they set up tents and raised their
flag over the island. In what may be a response to
the incident, two Chinese naval air force jet fighters
yesterday performed an unprecedented flight from
Hainan Island to the Paracels and back.
Both Peking and Saigon have claimed the Paracels
and have maintained a military presence on some of
them since the mid-1950s. For the past two years,
the Chinese have been constructing a naval facility
on one of the islands that could effectively service
naval combatants.
The Paracels have strategic and economic impor-
tance to the Chinese. They are used as radar and
weather sites, and their proximity to the main ship-
ping lines of the South China Sea permits surveillance
of ocean traffic. For its part, South Vietnam has
moved in recent years to reinforce the number of
troops manning its outposts, particularly on Pattie
Island.
The renewal of interest in the islands may have
been prompted by the prospect of finding oil on them
or under the surrounding waters. The Chinese are
constructing a large drilling rig on one island which
could be used for oil, gas, or sulphur exploration.
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