THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 23 MAY 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007964
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 23, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
May 23, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B(
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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J. V LI, L .1.1.,1-1,1 1--I J A
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
May 23, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Premier Chou En-lai has had to change his operating'
style because of his years, but he still seems very
much in charge of China's day-to-day affairs.- (Page 1)
inside Israel sometime this week, (Page 2)
EC countries are preparing to make good on their pro-
posal to offer wide-ranging cooperation to the Arab
states. (Page 3)
The Soviets apparently are preparing for several major
space events in the coming weeks. (Page 5)
In South Vietnam, increased Communist military action
is continuing in the northern provinces but falling
off in most other areas. (Page 6)
The Khmer Communists apparently intend to pursue
their campaign against isolated Cambodian government
enclaves well into the rainy season. (Page 7)
Portuguese officials are worried that self-determina-
tion for the African territories will have widely
differing results. (Page 8)
Notes on the Middle East and India appear on Page 9.
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CHINA
Age has. finally caught up with Chou En-lai,
China's 76-year-old premier, forcing a change in his
operating style. Chou still seems very much the man
in charge of China's day-to-day affairs, but he has
cut down on protocol functions in order to concen-
trate on more pressing matters.
Foremost among the issues requiring Chou's at-
tention is the anti-Confucius campaign, now in its
tenth month.. The premier has been deeply involved
in the repeated attempts to keep the campaign from
getting out of hand. ?Central Committee directives
setting strict limitations are finally having some
impact in the provinces. Unauthorized political wall
posters have been removed, and provincial media have
in some cases called for obeying party instructions
"to the letter."
There is still much to do. At least some of the
attacks on provincial leaders may not have official
party sanction, and factionalism, including armed
conflict, remains a problem in a number of places.
Additional stages in the anti-Confucius campaign
probably will include the fall of some high party
leaders.
Chou's lower public profile has led to specula-
tion outside of China that the premier is on the
losing end of the campaign and has been pushed into
the background by his political opponents, led by
Mao's Wife, Chiang Ching. It is far more likely
that pressure from his opponents kept Chou in a more
active role for longer than he originally intended
and that he did not begin to reduce his public ap-
pearances until he felt he had the situation in hand.
The Chinese have been at obvious pains to quell
rumors of Chou's political demise. He has been men-
tioned in the Chinese media more frequently than he
would be if he were in trouble. In addition, at
least two foreign visitors have been officially de-
scribed as visiting China at Chou's invitation, an
unusual formulation.
Chou's health could, of course, continue to
decline and force a further curtailment of his ac-
tivities. This could introduce a period of uncer-
tainty, since Chou has been instrumental in keeping
domestic affairs on a relatively even keel and in
executing Mao's policies toward the US.
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FEDAYEEN
Fatah, the largest fedayeen -organization, re- 25X1
portedly is planning to launch a terrorist operation
The relatively moderate stand on,Middle East.
settlement issues taken in private recently by Fatah
leaders would not preclude sponsoring a terrorist op-
eration within Israel.
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EC - ARAB STATES
EC countries are preparing to make good on their
proposal, announced on March 4, to offer wide-ranging
cooperation to the Arab states. The changes of gov-
ernment in London, Bonn, and Paris, as well as ad-
verse US reaction to the proposal, prevented earlier
action.
Hans-Dietrich Genscher, West Germany's new for-
eign minister, said publicly on May 19 that he be-
lieves the Euro-Arab dialogue will begin "in the next
few weeks...the time is ripe for it." A senior
West German official visited Cairo this weekend; he
may go to other Arab capitals as well.
In Brussels this month, Belgian political di-
rector Davignon told a number of Arab ambassadors
that the EC foreign ministers would probably take up
the question of EC-Arab cooperation early in June.
He suggested that they would decide to begin negotia-
tions with the Arab states. Preliminary discussions
are likely to take place at a meeting of the politi-
cal directors of the Nine in Bonn on May 27-28.
On the Arab side, a committee of 11 foreign
ministers, formed in March to develop a policy on
EC-Arab cooperation, early this week expressed in-
terest in a dialogue. The Arabs--in Cairo for a
meeting of the Arab League Defense Council--listed
topics they would like to discuss with the Europeans.
These include:
--European assistance in establishing an indus-
trial base in the Arab world,
--a flow of European technology,
--a balanced system of trade,
--balanced prices for raw materials, and
--ways to ensure stability in the value of Arab
capital investments and to guard against the
effects of future "monetary shocks."
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USSR
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USSR
The Soviets are apparently preparing for sev-
eral major space events in the coming weeks.
The evidence suggests that a lunar probe, pos-
sibly carrying a Lunokhod rover vehicle, may be
launched next week.
The Soviets probably will also attempt tO orbit
a manned Soyuz spacecraft and a large Salyut space
station in the coming weeks. The mission of these
? spacecraft cannot yet be determined. The Soyuz--
with two Cosmonauts aboard--might, for example, re-
main in orbit a few days testing equipment related
to the joint Apollo-Soyuz mission scheduled for next.
year, or it might instead link up with a Salyut
space station for a protracted mission.
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Bridges
Destroyed
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SOUTH VIETNAM
Increased Communist military action is continu-
ing in the northern provinces, but falling off in
most other areas. The new attacks, consisting
largely of rocket and mortar shellings, have been
directed at the provincial capital of Tam Ky, the
Quang Ngai airfield, and several other military and
civilian targets in the northern coastal area. Only
scattered ground contacts have been reported in this
region, however.
? Communist attacks have decreased significantly
in the central provinces. Route 1--the only north-
south land link--remains blocked, however, because
of the destruction of three bridges.
Senior South Vietnamese military officers are
cautiously optimistic over the situation in the
provinces just north of Saigon. In a recent assess-
ment, they stated that elements of the North Vietnam-
ese 7th and 9th divisions have made little headway
thus far in moving against several GVN outposts and
district capitals in Binh? Duong Province. The offi-
cers expect further fighting, but are confident that
government operations will keep the Communists off
balance.
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Bat ambang
Communists plan
heavier attacks
swig 6inii
Lovek.
/- Government gains
PHNOfl
PENH
tacks
epulsed
Neak
Luong
Ream Air base
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CAMBODIA
The Khmer Communists apparently intend to pursue
their campaign against isolated government enclaves
well into the rainy season. According to a recent
message, the Khmer Communist Central Committee has in-
structed regional forces to continue attacking widely
separated provincial centers and supply lines through
July. Among the targets specifically mentioned were
the provincial capitals of Prey Veng and Kompong Thom,
the southwestern reaches of Route 4, and the govern-
ment base at Lovek northwest of Phnom Penh.
At the moment, the Communists are focusing their
attention on Kompong Thom. Intercepted messages re-
flect a continuing buildup of insurgent units in the
area and outline plans for a major push against the
city's southern and western sectors in the near future.
While preparations for this attack are being completed,
the Communists are harassing Kompong Thom's defenders
with sporadic shellings and ground probes.
East of Phnom Penh, Prey Veng City also remains
under some pressure, but government units there have
been getting the best of the skirmishing along the
city's perimeter. On the capital's northern front,
government forces have capitalized on Communist with-
drawals to advance several miles north on Route 5.
These troops have destroyed several barricades the
Communists placed across the Tonle Sap River to prevent
the movement of foodstuffs to Phnom Penh.
Phnom Penh itself has been hit by several rocket
attacks in the past few days. These attacks have
caused little damage, however. Ten miles southeast
of the city, government units have repulsed attacks
against defenses along Route 1.
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PORTUGUESE AFRICA
Portuguese officials are worried that self-
determination for the African territories will have
widely differing results. Although they are opti-
mistic about the prospect for peaceful political set-
tlements in Angola and Portuguese Guinea, they have
grave reservations about what may be in store for
Mozambique.
In a talk with the U$ ambassador in Lisbon on
May 20, General Costa Gomes, the number two man in
the junta, said he fears a referendum on self-
determination in Mozambique would result in a vote
for independence and would be followed by civil war.
He bases his fears on the rapid deterioration in
relations between Mozambique's blacks and whites in
recent years and the bitter ethnic rivalries within
the territory's African majority..
Costa Gomes was clearly less concerned about
the future of.Angola and Portuguese Guinea, where
there is less racial and ethnic antagonism. In
? Angola none of the three rival liberation groups
are politically or militarily capable of forcing
? Lisbon to negotiate independence on their terms.
Prospects for ending the warin':Portuguese Guinea
are fairly good. The two sides will begin cease-fire
negotiations in London on May 25. Lisbon recognizes
that the insurgents form the only organization of any
consequence there and the Portuguese might be will-
ing to make significant concessions.
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NOTES
Middle East: Fighting was at an unusually low
level yesterday on Israel's northern front. Only
intermittent exchanges of tank and artillery fire
occurred between Israeli and Syrian forces. Damas-
cus reported that its forces shelled an Israeli set-
tlement some eight miles north of the Jordanian bor-
der, but there have been no Israeli reports of casu-
alties or damage at the settlement. Israeli air
activity also was light, with only a few reconnais-
sance flights detected. Israeli naval patrol boats
were operating off Beirut yesterday, but there were
no Israeli air or sea attacks against the fedayeen
facilities inside Lebanon.
India: Firm government action has in effect
ended the nationwide rail strike that began on May
8. Employees are returning to work and train sched-
ules are approaching normal, even though the strike
is not over officially. Prime Minister Gandhi still
refuses to resume negotiations with the rail unions
until the strike is formally called off. Union
leaders, meanwhile, are divided over whether to fight
on or accept defeat. Although industrial production
was hurt by disruptions in transport, the overall
economic effects of the strike were not as serious
as was anticipated.
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Top Secret
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