THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 16 APRIL 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014773
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: April 16, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
April 16. 1975
To
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category, 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
April 16, 1975
Table of Contents
South Vietnam: Government forces are expanding
their holdings both east and west of Xuan Loc,
but may be leaving themselves dangerously vul-
nerable elsewhere. (Page 1)
Cambodia: Unconfirmed reports suggest that the rem-
nants of the Cambodian government may be trying
to arrange a surrender today. (Page 4)
USSR:
(Page 5)
Lebanon: Fighting between the fedayeen and Phalan-
gist militia continued in Beirut yesterday.
(Page 6)
Egypt-Israel:
(Page )
Ethiopia:
(Page 8)
Notes: Cyprus; Romania-USSR (Page 9)
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SOUTH VIETNAM
South Vietnamese forces are ex-
panding their holdings both east and
?west of Xuan Loc, but Bien Hoa airbase
came under renewed communist artillery
shelling early today and is apparently
temporarily closed.
The government units attempting to open the
road from Xuan Loc to Saigon are still meeting de-
termined communist resistance, and their progress
has been slow. Some of the civilians who fled from
the city to the surrounding countryside are begin-
ning to trickle back.
Along South Vietnam's central coast, government
airborne and ranger troops defending Phan Rang air-
base came under heavy North Vietnamese armored at-
tack early today. Phan Rang city, about five miles
southeast of the base,was also reported to be under
heavy attack. Late press reports state that govern-
ment forces have abandoned both the airbase and the
city, and are being evacuated by sea.
In the delta provinces, fighting has been
fairly heavy in Vinh Long Province as the commu-
nists continue to threaten Route 4 north of Can
Tho. The North Vietnamese 8th Division has been
redeploying in preparation for its long-expected
campaign to cut Route 4 in Dinh Tuong Province.
If the 8th Division coordinates its attacks on
Route 4 with the North Vietnamese 5th Division far-
ther north in Long An Province, the South Vietnam-
ese 7th Division will be hard pressed to keep this
vital link to Saigon open.
The South Vietnamese have contained
the communist drives east and southwest
of Saigon, but may be leaving themselves
dangerously vulnerable to heavy new at-
tacks from the north.
In an attempt to meet the communists head on
and defeat them well away from the capital, the
government has had to shift a large part of its
reserves from Saigon to the Xuan Loc area. While
the South Vietnamese stand at Xuan Loc provides a
much needed morale boost, there is still danger
(continued)
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South
Vietnam
-Phan Rang
?
Cambodia
Military Region 3
? South Vietnamese Infantry Division
South Vietnamese Airborne Brigade
? North Vietnamese Infantry Division
MR 2
MR 4
5,0 Mites
25 50 kilometers
557701 4-75 CIA
SOUTH CHINA SEA
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
that the reinforced South Vietnamese division there
will be isolated and destroyed by the communists,
who have more than three full divisions in the area.
Even if the battle continues to go well for Saigon,
it will continue to tie down a large force and leave
the South Vietnamese with relatively few main-force
units to defend other approaches to the capital.
At the moment, the government appears most vul-
nerable in the provinces north of Saigon. The South
Vietnamese 25th Division is in Tay Ninh and Hau
Nghia provinces, and the rest of the 5th Division
is in Binh Duong Province. Those units appear to
be a sufficient blocking force against existing
communist units in the area, but at least six commu-
nist divisions, including four from North Vietnam,
appear to be moving toward Military Region 3. Ad-
vance elements from two divisions--the 312th and
the 320B--could already be in the area north of
Saigon. All or most of the communist reinforcements
could be in place and ready for action in a matter
of weeks.
communist
plans to attack Saigon itself in the next few days.
While there are no signs that any large communist
force is moving into position for a direct assault,
the communists do have the capability to sneak sap-
pers into the city. Moreover, the recent shellings
of Bien Hoa airbase suggest that the communists also
now may be planning to shell the outskirts of Saigon
and the Tan Son Nhut airbase with their heavy field
guns. An offensive by newly arrived divisions north
of Saigon, coupled with sapper attacks and shellings
of the city itself, might lead to a rapid crumbling
of the government's position.
A sampling of South Vietnamese opinion since
early April reflects a mood of deep pessimism within
official circles.
The sampling was made before your address to
Congress last week and the recent creditable show-
ing by the South Vietnamese military at Xuan Loc
and in the delta. It seems unlikely, however, that
these developments, in themselves, have been enough
to alter what appears to be a general conviction
that adequate US support will not be forthcoming
and a fear that the communists may prove too strong
for the South Vietnamese military to hold indefi-
nitely.
(continued)
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The most immediate concern of most South Viet-
namese, especially those who have worked closely
with the Americans, is "what happens if." Reassur-
ances that they will be evacuated are much sought
after.
believes that large-scale evacua-
tion would be nearly impossible and that once it
begins, government troops would fire on anyone try-
ing to leave. Another feels
that as soon as the communists begin hitting the
government's defenses around Saigon, there will be
wholesale panic similar to that at Da Nang and that
evacuation from Tan Son Nhut airport would not be
feasible because of the chaos.
A sense of impending disaster also permeates
the military./
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Phnom Penh
Teo!
Leap,.
Pre
Phpo
Captured by Communists
Government
defense line
1River banks fall to .communjsts"
???qc
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557705 4 (.IA
\\\ Statute ,Miles
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CAMBODIA
the remnants of the Cambodian govern-
ment may be trying to arrange a sur-
render today, apparently on the condi-
tion that the insurgents agree not to
enter Phnom Penh.
Khmer Communist units yesterday reportedly
reached the eastern end of the Monivong bridge lead-
ing into Phnom Penh and also entered the southern
suburb of Takhmau. Khmer navy officers reported
by telephone that government forces have abandoned
all positions on the east bank of the Mekong River
opposite the city's waterfront.
On the opposite side of the city, battle lines
are running roughly along a railway embankment about
a mile north of Pochentong airport.
On Route 5, the Communists have apparently
destroyed or captured the military fuel depot at
Prek Phnou.
Although communications between Phnom Penh and
the outside are beginning to break down, the domes-
tic radio station in the capital remained on the
air yesterday. Government officials were issuing
periodic reports on the military situation. Some
military commanders have also been issuing orders
to their units via radio broadcasts.
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USSR
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LEBANON
Fighting between the fedayeen and
Phalanges Party militia continued in
Beirut yesterday, leaving at least 100
dead. Shooting also occurred in Sidon
and Tripoli, while a general strike went
into effect in all major cities.
President Franjiyah met personally yesterday
with Pierre Jumayyil, head of the Phalanges Party,
almost certainly to appeal to Jumayyil to help halt
the fighting. The President's initiative is good
evidence that the country's Christian leadership
feels seriously threatened by the continuing vio-
lence. Lebanon's delicate constitutional system has
operated, in effect, to give the Christians control
of the government. Franjiyah is in the hospital re-
covering from major surgery; even when in good health
he has usually refused to become involved in dis-
putes involving the country's political parties and
the Palestinians.
The Lebanese cabinet has authorized Prime Min-
ister Sulh to call on the country's 19,000-man army
to put down the dispute, if necessary. For the
moment, however, the Prime Minister is pursuing
talks with political leaders in hope of negotiating
an end to the fighting.'
A small number of commandos from the less radi-
cal groups--Fatah, Saicia, and the Popular Democratic
Front for the Liberation of Palestine--have already
entered the fray, although the bulk of the fighting
has been carried by fedayeen from the smaller, more
radical groups.
Palestine Liberation Organization chairman
Yasir Arafat has staved generally aloof thus far.
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EGYPT?ISRAEL
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ETHIOPIA
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NOTES
Prospects for resuming the Cyprus negotiations
in Vienna on April 28 still are clouded by the un-
certain status of Greek Cypriot negotiator Glafkos
Clerides.
Clerides
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intends to turn in his res-
ignation within two days and give
up his position as president of the House of Depu-
ties. Clerides has argued for a realistic strategy
that accepts the Turkish Cypriot demand for a bi-
regional federation in return for Turkish Cypriot
concessions on other issues. Makarios claims that
such a major concession should be made only after
a period of long, hard bargaining. Clerides' latest
threat to resign is probably designed to produce
stronger expressions of support from Greek Prime
Minister Karamanlis and Makarios. In the event
such expressions are not made, Clerides may well
follow through and step down from his position as
negotiator.
Tensions in Romanian-Soviet relations have
recently increased.
A Romanian diplomat in Moscow says that in ad-
dition to differences over the European security
talks, CEMA policies, and the proposed pan-European
communist party. conference, Bucharest is now resist-
ing Soviet efforts to expand the political coordi-
nating role of the Warsaw Pact. The Soviets are
reported to be pushing for the establishment of a
permanent Pact committee of foreign ministers.
Moscow apparently wants to set up a secretariat--
similar to NATO's political organization--that would
be headed by a Soviet secretary general. The Ro-
manian diplomat speculates that once the European
security conference is over, Moscow will increase
its stress on ideological orthodoxy within the
Pact--a move clearly intended to force Romania to
identify more closely with Soviet policies and pro-
nouncements.
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