THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 5 MAY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015100
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 5, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
The President's Daily Brief
May 5, 1976
2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
Exempt from general
declassification uhedulc of ED. I 1652
exemption category 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
,^?? 1-1 myr1-1 T1 TJ 11 T TiX 7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
May 5, 1976
Table of Contents
Mexico: In a major shift of policy, the government announced
yesterday that the country's oil wealth is substantially
greater than previous official estimates. (Page 1)
Egypt: Minister of War Gamasy claims Cairo's failure to receive
substantial military assistance from the US has not hurt
morale in the armed forces. (Page 2)
Poland-Egypt: Warsaw reportedly has decided not to sell medium
tanks to Cairo. (Page 3)
25X1
Lebanon: Both the Christians and the leftists are using armored
vehicles and heavy artillery, and neither shows signs of
running short of ammunition. (Page 5)
USSR-Mozambique: President Machel will visit Moscow later this
month. (Page 7)
Notes: Poland; Cuba; Kuwait-USSR (Page 8)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
Zlk T 7 7-", 71 T1 7", CY 7 TN 7-, A 7. rT, 1-17\ TT AT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
MEXICO: In a major
shift of policy, Mex-
ico announced yesterday
that the country's oil
wealth is substantially
greater than previous
official estimates and
that it would join OPEC
as soon as it is invited.
Minister of National Patrimony
Alejo stated that Mexican oil re-
serves probably are on the order
of 30 to 60 billion barrels. This
would put Mexican reserves on a par
with Kuwait's and roughly three
times the proved reserves of the
US, excluding Alaska.
Our current estimate of Mexican
reserves parallels the newly an-
nounced figure. We expect, more-
over, that Mexico eventually will
confirm reserves at the 60 billion
barrel level. This would allow
Mexico to increase production to
6 million barrels a day by 1985 if
it can obtain the necessary equip-
ment to develop its oil fields.
The release of these hitherto
closely held estimates probably
means that Mexico has decided to
develop its oil potential rapidly
to bolster its economy. The cur-
rent pressure on Mexico to devalue
its peso has enhanced the arguments
of those advocating rapidly in-
creasing oil exports.
The timing of Alejo's announcement
apparently was intended to end the
flight of speculative capital from
Mexico and strengthen the peso on
international money markets. This
is likely to happen in the short
run, but the underlying pressures
for a devaluation--Mexico's high
rate of inflation relative to its
trading partners--will remain.
Yesterday's announcement coincides
with the concerted efforts of Mex-
ican officials to convince the in-
ternational financial community
that its economic prospects are
bright.
1
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
7-1k 1' 7?, Ts Tb C"/ TTNTAT Z-1 TT IT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
EGYPT: Egyptian Minis-
ter of War Gamasy told
Ambassador Eilts last
week that Cairo's fail-
ure to receive substan-
tial military assis-
tance from the US has
not hurt morale in the
Egyptian armed forces.
Gamasy said he has ad-
vised Egyptian command-
ers not to expect large-
scale US aid. Presi-
dent Sadat, however,
still hopes to receive
significant amounts of
US arms in 1977.
Mexican entry into OPEC will have
little impact on either Mexico or
the cartel. Mexico already is
marketing its oil at OPEC price
levels and probably will not be
constrained in its production pol-
icy by OPEC membership.
Despite Gamasy's statements about
morale, other recent information
has suggested some restiveness in
the Egyptian military. Officers
reportedly are unhappy with the
diminished capabilities of the
armed forces following the Soviet
Union's refusal to provide Egypt
with arms and spare parts.
Gamasy claimed that Egypt has made
plans to replace or rehabilitate
obsolete Soviet equipment with
arms supplies from France, Britain,
Yugoslavia, and other unspecified
countries, presumably including
China. He acknowledged that the
military is suffering from de-
graded equipment and a shortage of
spare parts. The problem is most
acute in the air force, which does
not have enough operational air-
craft to permit pilots to maintain
a high degree of proficiency.
Gamasy confirmed declining morale
in the air force as a result of
these cutbacks in flying time, and
said that low and middle ranking
officers in all services are troub-
led by the high cost of living and
the shortage of low cost housing.
He acknowledged that unspecified
"outside parties" have tried, but
failed, to penetrate the military
and create discontent. He ob-
served that there is some extreme
2
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
POLAND-EGYPT: Poland
reportedly has decided
not to sell T-54 and
T-55 medium tanks to
Egypt.
right-wing sentiment in the mili-
tary, but insisted that these ele-
ments are not disloyal to the gov-
ernment or its policies.
Gamasy's apparently candid assess-
ment of morale in the Egyptian
military is distinctly more com-20A1
placent than other assessments of-
fered recently by leading civilian
politicians.2
Despite his professed lack of con-
cern, Gamasy may have been attempt-
ing to remind the US that there is
a direct connection between good
morale and a continuing supply of
arms.
Warsaw probably was pressured by
Moscow to back out of the deal.
The Poles produce the Soviet-
designed tanks under license, and
in late 1975 reportedly planned to
sell Egypt 150 tanks for 00 mil-
lion.
It is likely that Cairo wanted the
Polish-built tanks to replace equip-
ment that is inoperable because of
a shortage of spare parts, rather
than to form new armored units. Over-
head photography shows that the
number of tanks in Egypt's motor-
ized infantry divisions has dropped
from 31 to 22 per battalion since
the October 1973 war.
3
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
r anean Sea
Area of limited forces
and armaments
Buffer Zone
Bir 51101
GalenPass
-ir
? _ . -
;
.t-r?
1.
5,1 N A I
As Mechanized infantry battalion
Mk Possible motorizedyinfintr-F-battalion
Egypt-Israel Agreement
September 1975
Line E:
Line J:
Line K:
Line F:
81.-1:
&
131.-28
E-1:
J-1:
A U.S.A.-WA.:
The Egyptian line
The Israeli line
The lines E and J will extend 12
nautical miles into the Mediterranean
Sea perpendicular to the direction of
the coast and the area between the
lines will be U.N. huller zone.
The limit of the Israeli area of
limited forces and armaments.
The limit of the Egyptian area of
limited forces and armaments.
The line separating the Israeli-con-
trolled area from: the area south of
line E and west of line M; and the
areas of buffer zones 211 and 28.
The buffer zone between lines E
and J.
The buffer zones along the Gulf of
Suez.
Road section for common use.
Egyptian surveillance station.
Israeli surveillance station.
USA. watch stations 1, 2, & 3.
? U.N.Posts in the Hamam Faroun area.
a
2.?
to Miles
0 s'Ci an Kilometers
559717 5-76 CIA
Hama
Faroun
area
-A
' _
?
l'-
c
Aba zananah Buffer zone-c\
^Sift ? 01?"'
/ ? .
?
Abortadal
Buffer Zo\ne-2B
\ I ;
? - ? '
SAUDI
ARABIA
Num ash sh..,xe
_ _ ?
Red Sea
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for R?elea-Se 20i16767716 -CIA:RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
EGYPT-ISRAEL-SYRIA:
25X1
4
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010031-5
Beirut, Lebanon
,-.4.
,,,i;:e iii-ipz-4 ?
-160110 4 ..s`
rr," tri .:NC5 AIN EL MREISSI
*41' itigkr."244',n&"11
P tql:Algaert:
"giar-IfeAktgal
$
'
,
? ,.,--:-------? 4... * -
Ip f7,- ..,, ?
4
7.44?INET
eLl
egAliCKI
HA &Georges
EL HOSNp
r ',7e,001
tepaF
umiunNan.
Op ZOKAK EL BLATT
J11.?
Zirr.?
g
6d SirollIre
d'S
DPczz3b
MOUSSAITBEIV
TAIogg '(::5,""Sa= vvzi ez)
Mc
uSaaCI
aw
4,
SAIFI
PORT
1
4
Ek? ?
,,PORT DISTRICT
tat/00c,
IJJIMEDAWAR
Statute Mile
Alb
,F)
iggekign, 7
UYs
r?T.Lrxravar.A.7,
ihniEW41-? 000(j.
'OOP
-?
?c:1 tz: 4t.c:
0
eZ
?;14-
,..(kSHRAFIYAH
`q I 4R4Ail
? F711N___6f
relicZyn---.
E113
:ciRpLiirzR ...111.? !
7'11.-72f 7:L'il
0 0/---1
4-*
"6? .....
?
VIL.;"; 1 a
't PVgioc:ez:,r-//(:71, .4-c:57pAl liriaM146D
1/400 ilic,,,c:7-7a.
S Cii .. * '
II ...
01=, Dtil \ r'S ki:/21
(
.osi
! cv.egg&ciquiii,
010 vi
tir,i,_ d. pt CTIJRN ECH CHEBBAK
csa `Po
r_sl Li
niYo.7,
IN IN IN ma( rik .16.
illilif
-10ti SAVA,.
ak
M
lP
CS' 1! , MI
..., 4 Ail . ri I - ?00.0 lac,
--IPZIcle
Me6a. 44&
Mediterranean Sea
559713 4-76
t7
144
g BOURJ HAMMOUD evZi
aF?., 0J,
o
SINN EL
rez
i
FIL
K57011,0
DEKWANEH
g
rLi
. ?
/41.1_