THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 19 JANUARY 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007651
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 19, 1974

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'The President's Daily Brief
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January 19, 1974
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declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B(11121.13)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
January 19, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
President Sadat has left Egypt for a tour of Arab
capitals that will end in Syria, seeking to dispel
doubts about the disengagement accord. (Page 1)
Soviet
Chinese forces drove South Vietnamese Marines off an
island in the Paracels yesterday. (Page 4)
Thai Prime Minister Sanya has offered to resign in
the face of charges that his government has been in-
effective in dealing with public disorder. (Page 5)
\Soviet)
//(Page 6)
Soviet
(Page 7)
President Bourguiba
is leaving for
(Page 8
a rest in Switzerland.
Notes on Japan-Iraq, Indonesia, North Korea, South
Korea, and Angola-Zaire appear on Pages 9 and 10.
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MIDDLE EAST
President Sadat left for Saudi Arabia last
night, beginning a tour that over the weekend will
also take him to several Persian Gulf states and
Syria.
He will arrive in Damascus on Sunday. While
there, Sadat will try to convince President Asad
that Egypt is not seeking a unilateral settlement
with Israel.
Public Egyptian comments on the disengagement
agreement signed on January 18 have been designed
to allay Syrian misgivings. Sadat said yesterday
that the negotiations should concentrate on Syrian-
Israeli disengagement before the Geneva conference
is resumed.
By implying that the conference may not be
reconvened until Syria has achieved progress to
match Egypt's, Sadat probably hopes to make it clear
to Syria and the other Arab states that Cairo will
not act except in concert with all Arabs. Indica-
tive of the kind of problems which Sadat may encoun-
ter from some Arabs, a fedayeen broadcast from Bagh-
dad last night bitterly attacked Cairo's agreement
with Tel Aviv as "treasonous."
Egypt is trying to adapt its comments to Syrian
policy. Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam insisted
earlier this week that disengagement of forces on
the Egyptian and Syrian fronts must occur simultane-
ously, and be linked to an Israeli commitment to
withdraw from all occupied Arab territory. Syria's
willingness to enter into talks with Tel Aviv may
hinge in large part on whether Damascus is satisfied
with whatever understanding Sadat has reached with
Israel on future withdrawal.
According to an Iraqi broadcast, the Syrian
Government has denied an earlier press report that
Damascus threatened on Thursday to sever relations
with Cairo over the terms of the Egyptian-Israeli
agreement.
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USSR - MIDDLE EAST
(continued)
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the So-
viets have publicly reacted calmly to the disengage-
ment announcement. Press reports had suggested that
the announcement would be issued simultaneously in
Moscow as well as in Cairo, Tel Aviv, and Washington,
but the Soviets in fact merely reported President
Nixon's announcement of the agreement. In their
subsequent reporting, the Soviets have, so far, con-
fined themselves to brief factual coverage--although
they have tended to slight Secretary Kissinger's
role in the talks.
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CHINA - SOUTH VIETNAM
Early this morning Chinese and South Vietnamese
troops clashed on an island in the Paracels believed
to be Duncan Island.
South Vietnamese authorities reported that about
75 marines landed on the island and were surrounded
by at least two companies of Chinese troops. Prior
to the South Vietnamese landing, at least two Chinese
ships and perhaps more were anchored off the island,
and two or three Chinese jet fighters again overflew
the area.
The South Vietnamese have pulled their forces
from the island, reporting three marines killed and
two wounded. Saigon has also recalled naval and
troop reinforcements that had set out for the Para-
cels.
South Vietnamese naval units exchanged fire
with Chinese ships near Duncan Island; a Chinese
ship and all of the South Vietnamese ships were hit,
and at least one South Vietnamese vessel has sunk.
Firing was also reported between one of the Chinese
ships and a South Vietnamese fighter aircraft, ap-
parently sent to escort the ships back home.
The South Vietnamese are unlikely to seek fur-
ther combat in view of the apparent Chinese deter-
mination to use force. Each side will accuse the
other of starting the fighting, but it is unlikely
that either seeks a prolonged military confrontation
over the islands.
Both sides have long maintained some presence
in the Paracels. The current flare-up appears to
have been touched off by a recent renewal of con-
flicting claims to other islands in the South China
Sea. Last fall, the South Vietnamese repeated their
claim to the Spratly Islands, a group south of the
Paracels, prompting a Chinese Foreign Ministry state-
ment earlier this month that reaffirmed China's
claim. At the same time, Peking repeated its claim
to other island groupings in the South China Sea,
including the Paracels, as well as "the natural
resources in the sea around them."
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THAILAND
Prime Minister Sanya has offered to resign in
the face of repeated charges that his government
has been ineffective in dealing with public disorder.
Sanya/
to meet with King Bhumibol today to
request that he be allowed to step down. The King,
however, probably will reject his request.
The tumultuous student demonstrations last week
against Japan and the US have also served to aggra-
vate concern within the conservative elite--and
particularly among army officers--that the govern-
ment is losing control. (
While the King shares Krit's concern, he is
deeply committed to a civilian form of government
and would probably turn to the military only as a
last resort. Moreover, the situation in Bangkok
has returned to normal, which should help to settle
Sanya's nerves and ease the army's concern. If
Sanya insists on stepping down, the likely outcome
is the formation of a new civilian government, per-
haps with some military officers in key cabinet po-
sitions.
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TUNISIA
Tunis radio has announced that Bourguiba 25X1
is leaving today for a rest in
Switzerland.
The issue of succession once more dominates
Tunisian politics. Bourguiba has been vacillating
on reforms necessary to ensure an orderly transfer
of power. His recent actions, especially his rapid
retreat from an agreement to merge Tunisia with
Libya, will weaken his prestige and eventually his
capacity to govern.
Bourguiba probably values his friendship with
the US more than ever as he approaches the end of
his rule. Most of the presidential hopefuls around
Bourguiba, such as Prime Minister Nouira, also at-
tach importance to friendly ties with the US. When
Bourguiba passes from the scene, however, Tunisia's
foreign policy will probably become more visibly
nonaligned and less pro-Western.
Among the more prominent contenders for power,
Mohamed Masmoudi, the recently dismissed foreign
minister, is the least favorably disposed to the
US. He is the chief Tunisian advocate of closer
ties with Libya and as foreign minister he sought
a more active role for Tunisia in Arab politics.
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NOTES
Japan-Iraq:
Indonesia: Jakarta is now quiet, but radical
students in the East Java city of Surabaya are de-
manding that the government close down local enter-
tainment spots by January 19; otherwise, the students
threaten to close them forcibly. Although the number
of students involved is very small, police fear that
in the aftermath of the Jakarta riots it would not
take very much to spark a rampage in Surabaya. Local
authorities are attempting to persuade the Chinese
owners of the offending establishments to close down
temporarily until the tension subsides.
North Korea: In recent weeks the North Korean
Air Force has begun routine flights near the De-
militarized Zone and the Northern Limit Line.
North Korean sorties, including these flights, have
increased almost 50 percent above normal since early
December. Pyongyang presumably wants to be able
to respond quickly should its dispute with South
Korea over offshore islands produce an incident.
South Korea: Seoul plans to double the man-
power in its navy and to acquire several new war-
ships by the early 1980s. The navy is to expand to
about 55,000 men, exclusive of the 26,000'marines
whom the navy absorbed last fall. The modernization
plan calls for acquisition of two submarines, three
destroyers, and one destroyer escort as well as
several naval attack aircraft, tactical missiles,
and patrol boats.
(continued)
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Angola-Zaire: Portuguese officials in Angola
believe there may be a marked increase in guerrilla
activity in the near future, perhaps with the as-
sistance of the Zairian Army.(
//While Zaire's President Mobutu would prob-
ably not commit his own forces to the fighting, he
could provide logistical and advisory support. The
Portuguese believe they can counter the insurgent
threat.
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Top Secret
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