THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 2 JULY 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006004753
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: July 2, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
July 2, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5E0),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
July 2, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
President Peron left no obvious heir. His widow
will probably stay on while political and military
leaders try to agree on a successor. The task will
be difficult. (Page 1)
Ethiopia
(Page 3)
the So-
viets have launched two more D,class ballistic mis-
sile submarines. (Page 4)
Prime Minister Tanaka's Liberal DemOcratic Party is,
expected
expected to retain its majority in elections for the
Upper House of the Diet on July 7, thus ensuring..
that party's control of the entire Japanese legisla-
tive process. (Page 5)
The Turkish government has lifted the ban on opium
poppy cultivation. (Page 6)
Lao Prime Minister Souvanna is consideringa plan
to dissolve the rightist-dominated National Assembly.
and convert the coalition government's Joint National
Political Council--which now has an advisory role and
is chaired by Pathet Lao leader Souphanouvong--into
a legislative body. (Page 7)
The outcome of Sunday's election in Iceland indicates
a.slight swing to the right and suggests that. the
pro-NATO Independence Party will be asked to form a
government (Page 8)
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ARGENTINA
President Peron died yesterday and left the
country without an obvious successor. Peron himself
recently remarked that he had no heir apparent, sug-
gesting that he did not expect Mrs. Peron to last
very long in the top job.
She may last only as long as it takes political
and military leaders to work out a mutually accept-
able solution .?
r
The military, which is still widely unpopular,
prefers an orderly constitutional succession. Major
political leaders agree. With the Peronist Move-
ment likely to undergo a gradual disintegration,
the military will have to play a key role in estab-
lishing whatever government eventually evolves.
The
stakes are too great for a serious split in the mili-
tary, however, and the high command probably will
stick together.
One of the first problems may be to persuade
Maria Estela de Peron to stay in the job and thus
avoid the election that otherwise would be needed.
In the past she has expressed reluctance to assume
the presidency./
Appeals to patriotism and her husband's memory
will keep her in the job for the immediate future.
Jose Lopez Rega, Peron's private secretary and con-
fidant, is probably more interested than anyone else
in keeping her in the presidency. He is ambitious,
and with Peron gone he needs Maria Estela if he is
to achieve a power position.
Without Peron's hand, confusion within the high-
est levels of government will grow as leaders like
Lopez Rega contend for power.
.When Mrs. Peron decides the burdens of state
are too much for her, military leaders may try to
get her to convoke a council of state representing
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all political parties except those Of the extreme
left. If she were to agree to remain as titular
head of the council, a national election could be
postponed for some time.
If Mrs. Peron steps down, her successor, Senate
President Jose Allende, would be required by the con-
stitution,at least to set a date for elections within
30 days.
If Allende does become president, the military
will probably try to persuade him to put off the
actual election date as long as possible. It is un-
likely that Allende himself would be a contender,
since his Christian Democratic Party is small and
he lacks any other political following.
The chances are that the military Would favor
some sort of coalition ticket. One possibility would
be a joining of forces by former provisional president
Raul Lastiri, a long-time Peronist,? and Radical Party
leader Ricardo Balbin, who has been cooperating
cloSely with the Peronist government.
The sudden return of former president Hector
Campora to Buenos Aires last week from his post as
ambassador to Mexico increases the chance that a
leftist coalition might be formed to compete with
a more moderate one. This would create turmoil and
division, a prospect providing the military with an-
other reason to try to postpone an election until a
strong candidate can be agreed on.
Even though all political leaders officially
pledged to support Mrs. Peron when she was installed
as temporary chief of state on. June 29, Peronist fac-
tions can be expected to act independently now that
Peron is dead.
This is especially true of the leftist youth
leaders, who, were all but read out of the moVement'
by Peron himself for their disruptive demonstrations,
and public attacks on his wage and price stabiliza-
tion policies.
Terrorist groups will also take advantage of
the leadership vacuum. The People's Revolutionary
Army probably will step up acts of violence, and
guerrilla organizations on the fringes of the Peron-
ist movement may become more active.
A general breakdown in order of a magnitude that
would force military intervention, however, does not
appear likely at this time.
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ETHIOPIA
The military continues to round up important
members of the aristocracy with a minimum use of
force. The president of the Senate, an institution
controlled by the landowning elite, reportedly is
the latest to have been picked up. Apparently only
about 15 persons have actually been detained so far,
although numerous others are said to be under house
arrest.
Military representatives are still meeting reg-
ularly with a four-man ministerial committee appointed
by Prime Minister Endalkatchew. This committee could
become a channel through which the military exercises
increased control over the government without resort-
ing to an outright take-over.
The arrests so far have been limited to the
capital area and have provoked no strong reaction.
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Soviets Launch Two D-class Ballistic Missile Submarines
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USSR
the
Soviets:: have launched two more D-.class,ballistic mis-
sile submarines. One was launched at. Severodvinsk
on the White Sea and the other at Komsomolsk in the
Soviet far east. The latter was the first D-class
launched from the shipyard at Komaomolsk4 all the
others were built at Severodvinsk.
The USSR has been building .D-class submarines
since 1970. Ten have now been launched. Seven are
either operational or on sea trials; three-including
the two just launched--are fitting_ out. The D-class
carries 12 missiles that have a range of 4,200 nau-
tical miles.
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JAPAN
Prime Minister Tanaka's Liberal Democratic Party
is expected to retain its majority in the election for
the Upper House of the Diet on July 7, thus ensuring
that party's control of the entire Japanese legisla-
tive process.
The bright prospects of the Liberal Democrats
rest mainly on the failure of theopposition.parties
to cooperate against them. The Communists should come
out of the election with further gains, mostly at
the expense of the faltering Socialists and Democratic
Socialists.
Tanaka stands to be the biggest winner./
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TURKEY
The Turkish government yesterday lifted the
three-year-old ban on opium poppy cultivation. Cul-
tivation will be permitted in six provinces of west-,
ern:Turkey and in part of a seventh. Prime Minister
Ecevit will reportedly make a detailed statement--
presumably about acreage plans and security measures-
today.
A Turkish goverment spokesman justified the
cabinet's decision by citing the economic conditions
of former poppy farmers and the needs of the inter-
national pharmaceutical industry. The government
promised that an effective control system will be
installed to prevent illegal trafficking in opium
or poppy cultivation in other than designated areas.
Experts in both the US and Turkey, however, doubt
that this can be done effectively.
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LAOS
Prime Minister Souvanna is weighing 4 plan to
dissolve the moribund rightist-dominated National As-
sembly and to Convert the coalition government's
Joint National Political Council, which now has only
an advisory role, into a legislative body. These
steps would greatly enhance the authority and pres-
tige of the council, which is. chaired by Pathet Lao
leader Souphanouvong, and weaken the position of the
non-Communists.
Since the creation of the coalition government
last spring, the Pathet Lao have been determined to
shift the National Assembly's legislative functions
to the Political Council. After considerable in-
fighting, the Pathet Lao were able to prevent-the as-
sembly from reconvening- The non-Communists, how-.
ever, are not likely to acquiesce in formal abolition
of the assembly without some resistance.
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NOT
Iceland: The outcome of Sunday's election in-
dicates a slight swing to the right and suggests that
the pro-NATO Independence Party, which increased its
representation from 22 to 25 in the 60-seat parlia-
ment, will be asked to form a government. This will
probably require lengthy negotiations. The Independ-
ents, who strongly favor retaining .the US-manned
NATO base at Keflavik, will have to enter a coalition
with at least one of the other parties.. The Progres-
sive Party, which headed the outgoing coalition, is
the only non-Communist group with enough seats to
give an Independence-led government a majority in
parliament. In the past the Progressives have op-
posed retention to the Keflavik base. They may be
persuaded to end this opposition, however, in return
for a role in the new government
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Top Secret
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