THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 15 JANUARY 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007918
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 15, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
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January 15, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 58( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
IL, ."P
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Table of Contents
USSR - Middle East:
offered a bearish assessment of Moscow's pros-
pects in the Middle East. (Page 1)
USSR-US: Moscow's decision to renounce the trade
agreement represents a significant change that
may have come about only in the past few weeks.
(Page 2)
January 15, 1975
Israel: The Israeli air force conducted large
exercises yesterday and Monday over the
northern Sinai and the Golan Heights, re-
spectively. (Page 3)
Arab States: Libya and Algeria still refuse to
contribute to the Arab War Fund. (Page 4)
Turkey: ?The government is seeking alternative
sources of arms should US military assistance
end in early February. (Page 5)
Portugal: The Popular Democrats and the Socialists
are threatening to walk out of the three-party
coalition if the Communists push through a new
labor law. (Page 6)
Turkey-Greece: The Turks have apparently decided
to go ahead with oil exploration in the Aegean;
the Turkish military alert continues. (Page 7)
Cyprus: President Makarios has a new cabinet made
up of men who have proved their loyalty to
him. (Page 8)
Laos: The US embassy is concerned that Lao Com-
munist leader Prince Souphanouvong is gaining
too much influence over Prime Minister Souvanna
Phouma. (Page 9)
Notes: China-France; Cuba (Page 10)
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USSR-MIDDLE EAST
has made a bearish assessment of Moscow's
prospects in the Middle East.
This recently expressed Soviet attitude does
not mean that the USSR will forgo manuevering to
regain influence in the area. Moscow will cer-
tainly continue to cultivate the Arabs while indi-
cating to leaders, such as Sadat, that they must
make concessions to Soviet views if they are to
receive aid.
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USSR-US
The USSR's decision to renounce the
1972 trade agreement with the US repre-
sents a significant change in the Soviet
position that may have come about only in
the past few weeks.
It was not until December 18, when Congress was
about to vote on the trade reform legislation, that
Moscow made public the letter Foreign Minister Gro-
myko had sent to Secretary Kissinger on October 26
denying any obligation to alter emigration policy.
Soviet media treatment of the issue subsequently
made clear that Moscow is also unhappy that the US
is placing limits on the amount of credits available
to the USSR and on how those credits could be used.
Two days before the publication of the Gromyko
letter, the issue may have been considered at the
Central Committee's plenary session. The Central
Committee may have approved a tougher line, but it
is more likely that the Soviets did not decide to
take the final step until sometime last week. Some
knowledgeable Soviet officials, for example, until
very recently have been telling their US counter-
parts that all would be well in US-Soviet economic
relations.
However the details sort out, there can be no
mistaking that Moscow's action is a setback to the
USSR's detente-oriented foreign policy line. The
prospect of closer economic relations with the US
has been a significant factor behind Moscow's desire
for detente.
The importance of the economic factor will be
indicated by the extent to which the Soviets move
to shore up the other aspects of their foreign pol-
icy line. The arms limitation agreement reached at
Vladivostok may be crucial in this respect; it may
turn out to be significant that over the past few
weeks the Soviets have continued to say positive
things about your summit meeting despite their bit-
ter criticism of the US trade legislation.
Moscow will probably move quickly to give some
assurances regarding its foreign policy line in the
aftermath of yesterday's revelation, unless there
has been a more far-reaching reappraisal than now
seems likely to have occurred.
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ISRAEL
The Israeli air force yesterday
conducted one of its largest exercises
since the October 1973 war over the
northern Sinai. It was preceded on
Monday by a large air force exercise
over the Golan Heights.
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ARAB STATES
Arab League representatives ap-
parently failed to recruit Libya and
AZgeria as contributors to the Arab
War Fund at their meeting in Cairo last
week. The total for 1.975 still stands
at $1.365 billion--the amount pledged
by Middle East oil producers immedi-
ately after the Rabat meeting in
October 1974.
Algerian President Boumediene and Libyan
President Qadhafi, although still willing to
provide arms for an Arab-Israeli conflict, ap-
parently have refused to contribute untied cash
to the fund. Neither leader is convinced that the
"belligerent" countries are committed to a suf-
ficiently hard line against Israel. Moreover,
with revenue prospects uncertain, both leaders are
beginning to feel some financial pinch.
In view of the shortfall in pledges, Syria
and Egypt will now receive $580 million each,
Jordan $175 million, and the Palestine Liberation
Organization $30 million. Although this is only
58 percent of the original aid allocation of $2.3
billion specified at the Rabat meeting, these sums
amount roughly to the cash contribution (as distinct
from project aid) that belligerent states expected to
receive.
Jordan recently announced that it has received
$51 million from the fund.
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TURKEY
? The Turkish government is seeking
alternative sources of armaments in ex-
pectation that US military assistance
will end in early February.
Turkish officials previously assumed that a way
would be found to avoid the aid cutoff, but the tem-
porary ban instituted last month shocked them out of
their complacency.
Sixteen deputies of the Republican People's
Party have reacted to the prospect of an aid cutoff
by calling for parliamentary debate on Turkish-
American relations, and a Turkish senator is press-
ing for a senate investigation. These deputies be-
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PORTUGAL
The Popular Democrats and the
Socialists are threatening to walk out
of the three-party coalition govern-
ment if the Communists succeed in push-
ing through a law allowing only a single
labor organization.
Leaders of the Armed Forces Movement are try-
ing to placate both sides; they are making conces-
sions to the Popular Democrats and the Socialists
on the proposed national economic plan that could
lead them to withdraw their objections to the
Communist-sponsored labor law. A cabinet meeting
scheduled for Friday has been advanced to tomorrow.
The Communists will not surrender the control
they have over the labor movement, Furthermore,
they think they have found an issue that will cause
considerable disarray in the government and may
even lead to postponement of the election now ex-
pected in April. The Communists have been search-
ing for ways to delay the election until they can
build up their strength, The Communists held a
mass rally last night to demonstrate "popular sup-
port" for their labor law; the Socialists are plan-
ning a counterdemonstration tomorrow, The schedul-
ing of these rallies has increased speculation that
one side or the other might try a coup in connection
with the demonstration.
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TURKEY-GREECE
The Turks have apparently decided
to go ahead with oil exploration in the
Aegean--an action likely to lead to an in-
crease in tension with Greece.
In responding to charges of negligence in his
Aegean policy, Prime Minister Irmak confirmed yes-
terday that a Norwegian seismic survey ship under
contract to Turkey would begin prospecting "before
long" off Turkey's western coast. This would place
the ship in the disputed zone of the Aegean, where
it could be used by the Turks to reinforce their
claim. Irmak also repeated Turkey's request that
the Greeks agree to a new demarcation line in the
Aegean or to a proposal for joint prospecting.
The US embassy in Ankara reported yesterday
that the Turkish military alert apparently has been
extended to include some ground force units west of
Istanbul. A Turkish pilot based at one of the air-
fields on alert has said that military readiness
was increased because of pending Turkish oil ex-
ploration in the Aegean.
The embassy has concluded, however, that alert
measures taken thus far do not mean that the Turks
intend to initiate military action.
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CYPRUS
President Makarios yesterday announced
the formation of a new cabinet made up of
men who have proved their loyalty to him
in the past.
Having excluded all but his supporters from
the cabinet, Makarios will probably seek regular
consultations with political party leaders in order
to maintain a semblance of Greek Cypriot unity.
Makarios is particularly suspicious of derides
and will probably try to take credit for any suc-
cesses in the intercommunal talks that derides is
conducting with Turkish Cypriot leader Denktash.
Clerides and Denktash yesterday began preliminary
discussions of political issues and will meet again
tomorrow to discuss reopening Nicosia airport and
the island's seaports, particularly Famagusta.
?The British, in the meantime, are reportedly
planning to begin on Saturday to evacuate to Turkey
those Turkish Cypriots living in the sovereign Brit-
ish base area in the southern part of Cyprus. Turk-
ish and Turkish Cypriot leaders had earlier voiced
concern about the Turkish Cypriots on the base.
They will now be under pressure to reciprocate by
responding to the humanitarian concerns of Greek
Cypriots.
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LAOS
Prime Minister Souvanna Phouma's
convalescence seems to be proceeding
satisfactorily, but the US embassy is
concerned that his half-brother, Lao
Communist leader Prince Souphanouvong,
is gaining too much influence over him.
Senior non-Communist members of the coalition,
who are based in Vientiane, have only limited ac-
cess to the Prime Minister, who has secluded him-
self in the royal capital of Luang Prabang, where
Souphanouvong resides. Souvanna certainly is no
pawn of the Pathet Lao, nor is there any evidence
that he deliberately wishes to complicate US-Lao
relations or to seriously undercut the political
position of the non-Communist side. His recent ac-
tions, however, do suggest he has concluded that if
Laos' third coalition experiment is to succeed, the
non-Communists must ultimately yield on all but the
most important issues in the face of Pathet Lao in-
transigence.
Ambassador Whitehouse believes that constant
exposure to the Pathet Lao point of view has colored
Souvanna's judgments and increased his long-standing
suspicions of right-wing political and military lead-
ers. This could contribute to Souvanna's inclina-
tion to minimize the threat posed by the Pathet Lao's
drive for greater power and authority.
The embassy has learned, for example, that the
Prime Minister's New Year's address was drafted by
either Souphanouvong or Communist Deputy Prime Min-
ister Phoumi Vongvichit. One passage singled out
the US as having special responsibility for "heal-
ing the serious wounds of war in Laos"--a propagan-
distic formulation long pushed by the Lao Communists.
? Souvanna also recently endorsed Souphanouvong's
18-point national political program, a comprehen-
sive set of domestic and foreign policy guidelines
for the coalition government. The program had been
pending before the cabinet for more than six months
because the non-Communists objected to several con-
troversial provisions. ,Souvanna, however, appears
to have approved Souphanouvong's original proposal
more or less intact--almost certainly in response to
pressure from the "Red Prince."
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NOTES
China
Cuban leader Castro took the position in a
press conference last week that the danger of US
aggression against Cuba has diminished.
During the remainder of the conference--as re-
ported by the official Cuban news agency--Castro
made clear that he has no intention of relaxing his
efforts to promote confrontation between the US and
the countries of Latin America. Although he hinted
that Havana is no longer exporting revolution, he
pledged to support "every continental anti-imperial-
ist policy" and to search for any means to counter
US influence in the hemisphere.
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