THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 4 SEPTEMBER 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014893
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 4, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
September 4, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of ED. 11652
exemption category, 513(1).(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
September 4, 1975
Table of Contents
Portugal: Anti-Communist army officers appear to
have won an important tactical victory in
their effort to prevent Vasco Goncalves' in-
stallation as armed forces chief of staff.
(Page 1)
Lebanon: Protests against the new Sinai pact could
combine with the continuing clashes between
Christians and Muslims to undermine the deli-
cate calm in Beirut. (Page 2)
Angola: The two major nationalist groups are re-
ported to be building up their forces between
Luanda and Caxito. (Page 4)
Notes: Egypt; Turkey-Cyprus (Page 5)
Annex: We discuss the reaction of fedayeen groups
to the new Egyptian-Israeli agreement.
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PORTUGAL
Anti-Communist army officers appear
to have won an important tactical victory
in their effort to prevent Vasco Goncalves'
installation as armed forces chief of staff.
The army's assembly voted overwhelming against
Goncalves late on Tuesday in spite of the former
prime minister's personal appearance at the meeting.
The assembly also voted to ask President Costa Gomes
to postpone the crucial meeting of the Armed Forces
General Assembly--scheduled for tomorrow--until the
composition of the general assembly can be changed
to make it more representative of the armed forces.
If the session is held as scheduled, the army dele-
gates may well boycott it..
The air force was to have held its assembly
yesterday, but reports conflict on whether the
assembly took place. The air force, which is
thought to be the most anti-Communist of the three
services, was expected to follow the army's lead.
Mario Soares has made public his party's conditions
for joining a new government. In addition to the
removal of Goncalves, Soares is demanding:
--Municipal, labor union, and national as-
sembly elections.
--Support for the popularly elected constit-
uent assembly.
--Implementation of a Socialist Party eco-
nomic plan.
There are some signs that Portuguese right-
ists may try to take advantage of the current
political confusion. An attempt just now by
rightists to launch a strike inside Portugal would
be quickly exploited by the Communists, who would
link all their opponents to the popularly dis-
credited political right. This could easily scut-
tle the efforts of the anti-Communist military
officers to purge Goncalves and his supporters.
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MEDITERRANEAN
SEA
Tyre.
Sidon
BEIRUT
HrlfARAT :
If1744
Golan
Heights
,_Damascus
SYRIA
0 20 ?
Miles
9-75 558423
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LEBANON
Palestinians and Lebanese leftists
called a general strike yesterday to pro-
test the Egyptian-Israeli agreement. The
strike halted commercial activity in the
southern port cities of Sidon and Tyre
but was only partly effective in Beirut.
There is danger that the protests against
the new Sinai pact could combine with the
continuing clashes between Christians and
Muslims to undermine the delicate calm in
Beirut.
Small arms fire was heard early yesterday
morning in the Beirut suburbs, and two rockets were
fired at the headquarters of the right-wing Chris-
tian Phalanges Party. Government security forces
moved quickly to contain the violence and to pro-
vide protection to the Egyptian embassy, which had
been the scene of a demonstration by Palestinians
last weekend.
The government appears gradually to be gaining
the upper hand in the provincial capital of Zahlah,
where clashes have occurred for the last ten days
between Christians and Muslims. According to re-
liable press reports, at least 36 persons have been
killed in the fighting there.
Palestinian forces in Beirut's refugee camps
have gone on alert in the expectation
of widespread fighting soon. Militias of right-
and left-wing Lebanese political parties also are
preparing fcer a resumption of hostilities by im-
porting large quantities of arms and accelerating
their training programs.
Complicating Lebanon's domestic dif-
ficulties, Israeli aircraft bombed feda-
yeen targets in southern Lebanon yesterday
for the second consecutive day.
(continued)
2
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Tel Aviv has increased its attacks on fedayeen
targets during the past several weeks in retaliation
for stepped up fedayeen strikes across the border,
and in an attempt to preempt these terrorist at-
tacks. Early yesterday morning, according to a
military authority in Tel Aviv, Israeli aircraft
struck fedayeen camp, storage, and headquarters
structures some 15 miles north of the Israeli bor-
der on the Mediterranean coast. Fedayeen targets
in southeastern Lebanon near Mount Hermon also were
hit by Israeli aircraft and artillery in separate
strikes.
UN observers reported outbreaks of sporadic
machine gun, mortar, and artillery fire last night
and again early this morning. The Palestine guer-
rilla command announced in Beirut this morning that
Israeli commandos struck guerrilla positions near
the Lebanese port city of Sidon. The Israelis re-
portedly came ashore in five rubber boats under the
cover of naval gunfire. The Israeli military com-
mand confirmed in a brief communiqug ?that its troops
had clashed with Arab guerrillas but provided few
details.
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NGO
Brazz
Areas dominated by:
Kinshasa
ri Popular Movement
n National Front
National Union
MILES
CarMona
ATLANTIC
OCEAN
Nova Redondo
Lobito
Benguel
Chavuma
558415 9-75
rnOndangua
SOLk-i-WEST AFRICA
(Interna
tional Territory)
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ANGOLA
The National Front for the Libera-
tion of Angola and the Popular Movement
for the Liberation of Angola are reported
to be building up their forces between
Luanda and the Front's stronghold at
Caxito. Claims by the National Front
that it has advanced to within ten miles
of the capital cannot be confirmed,
however.
The National Front is anxious to establish a
military perimeter around the outskirts of Luanda,
but does not intend to fight its way
into the capital. It apparently hopes that a
strong military presence so close to Luanda will
be enough to convince the Portuguese and the Popu-
lar Movement that the Front must be permitted to
establish a political presence in the city again.
The National Front also hopes to discredit Popu-
lar Movement claims of being the territory's only
effective nationalist group and to frustrate its
plan to "assume total responsibility for governing
Angola" on November 11.
With slightly more than two months remaining
before they are scheduled to grant independence to
Angola, the Portuguese are making a last-ditch at-
tempt to patch together a government to which it
can hand over sovereignty. Admiral Leonel Cardoso,
formerly in charge of naval operations in Portu-
gal's African territories, was sworn in last week
as the new high commissioner in Angola and should
be arriving in Luanda soon. Cardoso will have
broader executive, judicial, and defense responsi-
bilities than those granted to his predecessor now
that Lisbon has suspended the January agreement.
4
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NOTES
Egypt
the b2nal,
agreement would achieve virtually all Egypt's im-
mediate military objectives, and that implementa-
tion of the plan to seize the Sinai passes is no
longer necessary.
army is maintaining the program
to train units in their wartime
the Egyptian
introduced in Jul
missions.
Turkey announced yesterday that some of the
approximately 1,500 army commandos stationed on
Cyprus since July 1974 will return to Turkey this
week.
The move appears related to the US arms em-
bargo as much as to a Cyprus settlement. The
Turks undoubtedly hope that the withdrawal will
offset their failure to make meaningful proposals
on a territorial settlement in Cyprus. This
failure, combined with Turkish unwillingness thus
far to follow through on commitments made during
the last round of the intercommunal talks in
Vienna, has left Greek Cypriots pessimistic over
prospects for the round of talks scheduled to be
held in New York on September 8 and 9. The main-
land Turks and Turkish Cypriot leader Denktash ap-
pear caught between a tactical need to appear rea-
sonable and forthcoming in New York--with an eye
to the US House of Representatives ? position on
the arms embargo--and the political situation in
Turkey that makes concessions difficult.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
FEDAYEEN
Two fedayeen groups that have
generally supported a negotiated settle-
ment in the Middle East--the Syrian-
controlled Saiga organization and the
Marxist-oriented Popular Democratic
Front for the Liberation of Paleetine--
have raised unusually forceful criti-
cism of the new Egyptian-Israeli agree-
ment. Unlike spokesmen for Fatah, the
largest commando group, they have di-
rectly attacked Egypt and President Sadat
as well as Israel and the US.
The outspokenness of the two groups reflects
the rapidly growing frustration among less radical
fedayeen leaders. They privately accepted last
year's Egyptian and Syrian interim agreements as
necessary steps toward negotiations involving the
Palestinians, but now are irritated that Egypt has
endorsed a second accord without explicit public
guarantees that Israel ever will make concessions
to or even negotiate with the Palestinians.
The Democratic Front, which for several months
has been inching toward a policy line independent
of Fatah, has done the most to translate its unhap-
piness into concrete opposition. On September 1,
the group assembled representatives of Lebanon's
16 Palestinian refugee camps to demonstrate opposi-
tion to the Sinai accord at several Arab embassies
in Beirut. The Democratic Front also helped organ-
ize yesterday's general strike by Palestinians in
Lebanon's major cities.
Position of Yasir Arafat
These initiatives have created a major problem
for Palestine Liberation Organization and Fatah
chief Yasir Arafat. His relatively conciliatory
policies have long been criticized by Fatah field
commanders, who, despite the risk of Israeli retali-
ation, would like to initiate more cross-border at-
tacks on Israel. The radical fedayeen philosophy
of rejecting any settlement with Israel is making
headway among these officers and among the second-
level Palestinian leaders who run the so-called
"popular organizations" within the PLO.
(continued)
Al
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The cynicism of these groups has grown--and
Arafat's prestige has diminished--since Arafat's
widely publicized appearance before the UN General
Assembly late last year. At that time, Arafat raised
Palestinian expectations, but he has been unable to
produce anything to meet these expectations.
Despite this popular disenchantment, Arafat
appears to be in little danger of being replaced as
head of the PLO or Fatah. The rejectionists are
still only a small minority, and none of the other
less radical leaders have come up with a practical
alternative to Arafat's policies.
In the past week, Arafat has begun an effort to
deal with his predicament by seizing the initiative
from his critics, while at the same time holding to
the essentials of his policies. In particular, he
is trying to obscure his continued willingness to
cooperate with Egypt and Syria in a barrage of
rhetoric condemning the US, threatening Israel, and
calling for Arab unity.
Dependence on Syria
To offset the strain in Palestinian-Egyptian
relations created by the new Sinai accord, PLO
spokesmen are taking care not to offend the Syrians,
and are working--at least superficially--toward im-
plementation of President Asad's six-month-old pro-
posal for a "joint Palestinian-Syrian political and
military command." The fourth session of the work-
ing group considering ways to implement the proposal
met in Damascus late last week.
Future Syrian policy toward Middle East nego-
tiations will be the single most important factor
in determining Palestinian policy. The Lebanese-
based fedayeen groups and the Syrian-based Palestine
Liberation Army, the PLO's conventional military
force, both depend on Syrian good will for the sup-
ply and transit of arms. In addition, the PLO de-
pends heavily on Damascus for international polit-
ical support, as in its effort to expel Israel from
the UN. As a result, the principal Palestinian
leaders dare not deviate too far from the Syrian
policy line.
So long as Damascus is reserved in its criticism
of Egypt and holds out hope for progress in negotia-
tions, Arafat will be free to pursue his preferred
strategy of preserving his links to Egypt. Arafat
is angered at Sadat's willingness to act without re-
gard for Palestinian interests, but also is impressed
with Cairo's demonstrated ability to make gains
through negotiations.
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(continued)
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In addition, he is mindful of the penalties the
Palestinians have paid for offering needlessly an-
tagonistic criticism in the past, and appreciative
of Egypt's potential to help offset any future Syrian
attempts to exercise greater control over the feda-
yeen.
Terrorism as an Alternative
The Palestinians' only clear alternative to de-
pending on Egypt and Syria is to employ unrestricted
terrorism to force world attention on the Palestinian
problem. There is no question that the fedayeen have
the operational capability to do this, but their
awareness of the political outrage that such a strat-
egy would prompt--in the Arab world and beyond--al-
most certainly will deter them.
Of the less radical groups, Saiqa and the Demo-
cratic Front have seldom engaged in international
terrorism, and show no sign that they are consider-
ing it now, despite their increased frustrations.
Fatah's Black September Organization is still
making contingency plans for interna-
tional terrorist operations, but for the past year
has been relatively inactive.
Among the radical groups, the Popular Front and
the General Command have engaged in international
terrorism--particularly hijackings--and could do so
again. Recently, however, they, like the less rad-
ical groups, have emphasized cross-border attacks
on Israel out of a conviction that such incidents
win greater support from the Palestinian masses and
Arab governments.
Fedayeen of all stripes have already stepped
up their attacks on Israel, and seem likely to con-
tinue to do so despite the increased frequency of
Israeli strikes at fedayeen bases throughout Lebanon.
For most fedayeen leaders, this is the only road open
between acquiescing in Egypt's fait accompli and
turning to counterproductive international terrorism.
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,
Top Secret
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