THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 16 JUNE 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015137
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: June 16, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
June 16, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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June 16, 1976
Table of Contents
Syria-Lebanon: Syrian forces yesterday pushed deeper into Pales-
tinian-controlled areas of southern Lebanon and continued to
consolidate their positions in the Bekaa Valley in the east.
(Page 1)
Syria-Iraq-Jordan: Iraq reportedly is still moving forces toward
the Syrian border; Jordanian forces remain on alert. (Page 2)
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USSR - Middle East: The USSR has reacted to continued Syrian mili-
tary activity in Lebanon by appearing more responsive to the
Palestine Liberation Organization. (Page 3)
(Page 3) , 25X1
Italy: Exchanges between the major parties are becoming increas-
ingly bitter as the election campaign enters its final days.
(Page 4)
Rhodesia: Morale has fallen among the black members of the secu-
rity forces because of increased casualties. (Page 5)
Jamaica: The country's ailing economy received a boost last week
when Trinidad and Tobago promised generous financial support.
(Page 6)
Notes: Cuba-Angola; Greece-Turkey; Uruguay (Page 7)
At Annex we discuss the recovery of the Canadian economy from a
year of stagnation.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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Mediterranean
Sea
Dayr az Zawr
LEB
BEIRUT
DAMASCUS Bagh ad
IRAQ
GOLAN
HEIGHTS
SAUDI ARABIA
559914 6-76
100 miles
100 Kilometers
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SYRIA-LEBANON: Syrian
forces yesterday pushed
deeper into Palestinian-
controlled areas of
southern Lebanon and
continued to consolidate
their positions in the
Bekaa Valley in the
east.
We have received no of-
ficial Israeli reaction
as yet to the latest
Syrian actions.
The Syrians' drive into southern
Lebanon is consistent with their
apparent strategy of isolating the
Palestinians in Sidon and Beirut
and obstructing the resupply of
the Palestinians through Tyre, now
the only uncontested Lebanese port.
The Syrians almost certainly will
push on to the coast and probably
block access routes to Tyre from
the north.
In penetrating the south, where the
Palestinians have been operating
freely for years, Syria hopes to
neutralize Palestinian and Lebanese
Arab Army forces through control
of the major towns and the secur-
ing of supply depots and arms caches.
Damascus may also be anxious to
prevent Palestinian units in the
area from launching raids on Is-
rael--a course which the Palestin-
ians might adopt with the expecta-
tion of provoking an Israeli reac-
tion against the Syrians.
Syria's operations further demon-
strate to PLO leader Arafat that
President Asad is determined to
weaken the Palestinians and their
allies and eliminate prospects of
their receiving substantial aid
from other Arab sources. Syria's
action appears to reduce chances
that Egypt or Iraq would see any
utility in landing token forces in
Tyre.
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--continued
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On the diplomatic front,
Libyan Prime Minister
Jallud is again claim-
ing to have secured
Syria's agreement to a
plan for a phased with-
drawal from Lebanon.
SYRIA-IRAQ-JORDAN:
Iraq reportedly is still
moving forces toward
the Syrian border. Jor-
danian forces remain on
alert as Amman watches
the situation in west-
ern Iraq.
Jallud has promised to establish
a timetable for the withdrawal and
to return to Beirut today.
Despite the publicity given Jallud's
announcement, the Syrians show no
signs of easing their offensive in
Lebanon and are probably still
playing along with Jallud to gain
time. Damascus reportedly has re-
assured the Lebanese Christians
that it has no intention of with-
drawing its forces until after
president-elect Sarkis is installed
in office.
Close coordination between the
Christians and Syrians apparently
prompted Lebanese President Fran-
jiyah and Interior Minister Shamun
to agree in principle yesterday to
the Arab League's plan to send a
joint Arab peace-keeping force to
Lebanon. The Syrians and Christians
probably calculate that this en-
dorsement will make for further
delay while the League dickers to
meet Christian conditions on the
size and disposition of the force.
Amman reportedly believes that
Baghdad's moves are military pos-
turing and has discontinued its
reconnaissance flights along the 25X1
Iraqi border.
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--continued
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USSR - MIDDLE EAST: The
USSR has reacted to con-
tinued Syrian military
activity in Lebanon by
appearing more respon-
sive to the Palestine
Liberation Organization.
It also may be trying
to put indirect pres-
sure on the Syrians to
disengage.
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Last Friday the USSR announced that
a permanent representative of the
PLO had arrived in Moscow. The
establishment of a PLO office in
Moscow had been pending for almost
two years, and the Soviet decision
to permit its opening at this time
seems to be a calculated move to-
ward the Palestinians. The Sovie5xl
also are now siding more openly
with the PLO in their media cover-
age of the fighting in Lebanon.
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--continued
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ITALY: Exchanges be-
tween Italy's major
political parties are
becoming increasingly
bitter as the campaign
for the election on
June 20 and 21 enters
its final days.
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The Christian Democrats are ham-
mering harder than ever on their
basic campaign theme that Communist
accession to power would damage
Italy's relationship with other
Western governments and erode the
country's democratic system. The
Communists are attacking the en-
tire Christian Democratic Party
rather than concentrating, as they
have earlier, on party right-wingers
such as party president Fanfani.
--continued
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Communist chief Berlin-
guer, in an interview
with the country's lead-
ing newspaper yesterday,
implied that he sees
NATO as a way of pro-
tecting the Italian Com-
munists from Soviet in-
terference.
RHODESIA: Morale has
fallen among the black
members of Rhodesia's
security forces as a
result of increasing
casualties,
He said he felt "safer" in NATO
than he would outside of it and
suggested that his party would
not be able to pursue an indepen-
dent path if Italy were aligned
with the Soviet bloc.
The Communists have previously ex-
plained their acceptance of Ital-
ian membership in NATO by saying
that they favor the eventual dis-
solution of both NATO and the War-
saw Pact. They say that in the
meantime, however, they do not want
to upset the European balance of
power by pulling Italy out of NATO.
Berlinguer's latest effort to em-
phasize the Italian party's differ-
ences with Moscow seems to signal
his concern that the Christian Demo-
crats may be making headway in
arousing fear among Italians about
the consequences of voting for the
Communists. 25X1
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Racial tensions also are surfacing
within the security forces as
black casualties exceed white
losses.r-
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The government's effort to control
the insurgents depends heavily on
the black troops, who make up al-
most two thirds of the police and
about half of the army. Most
blacks evidently joined the mili-
tary to obtain a job, and some
are uneasy about fighting against
the insurgents.
--continued
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JAMAICA: The country's
ailing economy received
a boost last week at a
meeting of Commonwealth
Caribbean leaders when
Prime Minister Eric
Williams of Trinidad and
Tobago promised generous
financial support of
Kingston.
Black morale may well have been
what Prime Minister Smith had in
mind when he announced plans on
Monday to promote some blacks in
both the army and police force
to officer rank. Previously only
whites could be commissioned as
officers.
Trinidad pledged budgetary and
balance-of-payments aid amounting
to $77 million over the next five
months. The aid will do much to
alleviate Jamaica's problems and
will give Prime Minister Michael
Manley room for maneuver as he
prepares for national elections,
which apparently will be held late
this summer.
Manley, however, was less success-
ful in achieving his political
goals. He was unable to persuade
Williams to endorse charges that
the US is engaging in a campaign
of "destabilization" in the Carib-
bean. Manley and other government
officials, however, continue to
claim to home audiences that the
CIA is interfering in Jamaica's
internal affairs.
--continued
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Conversations between
Cuban radio operators
in Angola and Congo
suggest that another
Cuban convoy returning
troops to Cuba may have
left Angola in the past
several days.
The Greek ambassador to
NATO has expressed con-
cern about the two-day
Turkish air exercise
that began yesterday
over the Aegean.
The Uruguayan armed
forces high command is
moving quickly to re-
structure the govern-
ment in the wake of
former president Borda-
berry's ouster last
weekend.
NOTES
A previous convoy that included at
least one troop transport arrived
in the Cuban military port of
Mariel from Angola on June 9.
Shortly thereafter, busloads of
soldiers, presumably from the con-
voy, were seen in Havana. A West-
ern press correspondent put the
number of troops at "about 600."
We have no other information on
how many troops were involved.
The Cuban government has so far
failed to comment on the convoy's
arrival.
Turkey has asserted its version of
the limits of Greek airspace in
previous exercises--the most re-
cent from June 2 to 5. No inci-
dents have occurred during these
earlier exercises despite strident
statements by both governments.
Interim President Demichelli will
serve only a few months. A newly
formed "Council of the Nation"--
composed of senior military offi-
cers, cabinet ministers, and con-
servative civilians--will then
elect a new chief executive.
Whoever is picked will be another
figurehead. Armed forces leaders
will still rule and will continue
Uruguay's conservative policies.
Relations with the US will remain
good.
--continued
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'Ji 1_4 L
CANADA--MODERATE RECOVERY
the Canadian economy
is recovering from a year of stagnation.
We believe the economy will grow 4.5 to
5 percent this year.
Ottawa is now concentrating on controlling infla-
tion. The current expansion, however, will do little
to cut the present 7.1 percent unemployment rate be-
fore the end of 1976. Feeling the brunt of anti-
inflation policies, organized labor has grown more
outspoken in its opposition to Trudeau.
Industrial output jumped 2.5 percent in the first
quarter of this year--the strongest gain since late
1972. Since consumer demand is slowing, the pace
of industrial recovery in the coming months will
depend largely upon the strength of Canada's export
markets.
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Ottawa hopes to achieve moderate growth this year
through increased foreign demand, especially in
the US. Total exports rose 13 percent in value and
8 percent in volume during the first quarter of 1976
over the first quarter of last year--the sharpest
increase in two years. Increased overseas demand
is now reinforcing the spillover effects from the
US economic recovery.
Export growth and improved terms of trade will prob-
ably lead to a small trade surplus in 1976, com-
pared with a trade deficit last year of $800 mil-
lion. Despite the surplus, Canada will still reg-
ister at least a $4-billion current account deficit
compared with $5 billion in 1975. The deficit prob-
ably will put downward pressure on the Canadian
dollar later this year.
The wage and price controls program, implemented
last October, is dampening consumer spending.
The controls have had small impact on price rises
thus far, but Ottawa should be able to limit in-
creases to 8 percent by year end.
Any improvement in economic conditions will help to
bolster the government's sagging political fortunes
although the Tories claim some credit since they
originally suggested wage and price controls. )
Al
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