THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 21 FEBRUARY 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007680
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: February 21, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
February 21, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( 1),121,(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
February 21, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Prime Minister Meir will keep the door open for the
National Religious Party to join her cabinet as she
attempts to form a minority coalition government.
(Page 1)
The EC intends to proceed with a try for Community
cooperation with the Arab states. (Page 2)
The ring of SA-5 missile sites defending Moscow is
now almost complete. (Page 3)
The Soviets are having problems developing liquid
hydrogen rocket engines for their space boosters.
(Page 4)
On Pages 5 and 6, we analyze the issues that concern
the Latin American foreign ministers gathered in
Mexico City.
The Islamic Summit, which begins tomorrow, will con-
centrate on a Middle East settlement and on joint
economic projects. (Page 7)
West German spokesmen are downplaying reports that
Chancellor Brandt is depressed and thinking of re-
signing. (Page 8)
Today, the Note Pages
include items on
Israel-Egypt, Japan, efforts
to seat the Viet Cong at an international conference,
and a prospective meeting of Latin American Communist
parties.
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ISRAEL
Prime Minister Meir will keep the door open for
the National Religious Party to join the cabinet as
she attempts to form a minority coalition government
with the Independent Liberal Party. Her minority
government will control 58 of the 120 Knesset seats.
The Prime Minister informed President Katzir of
her decision last night after the National Religious
Party, citing the refusal of the Chief Rabbinate
Council to approve the last-minute compromise worked
out with the Alignment on the religious issue, de-
cided not to join the cabinet. She clearly hopes
to induce the party to reverse its decision. Mrs.
Meir said that she would hold open the cabinet seats
originally earmarked for the National Religious
Party until the deadlock on the religious issue is
broken. The National Religious Party is not bound
by the rabbinate's decision and the party's central
committee may reconsider when it meets on February 24.
President Katzir has given the Prime Minister
one more week to form a cabinet. She must then pre-
sent it to the Knesset for a vote of confidence.
Foreign Minister Eban told Ambassador Keating last
week that the Alignment had quietly obtained the
agreement of the orthodox Agudah Religious Front to
throw its five votes to the government on votes of
confidence, which would give her the necessary Knes-
set majority.
Defense Minister Dayan has apparently also
closed ranks with the Prime Minister, who told re-
porters yesterday that she has requested Dayan to
continue to serve in his post. Dayan told the World
Zionist Council yesterday that he would give Mrs.
Meir and any government she formed his fullest sup-
port, and he left the door open about serving in a
new cabinet. Earlier, he was reported to have stated
his opposition to an Alignment-led minority govern-
ment.
The new minority government should be able to
continue to conduct peace talks with the Arabs. The
Prime Minister can probably count on sufficient sup-
port for the government from the liberal and leftist
parties to ensure a majority in the Knesset on Middle
East peace issues. Nevertheless, she is probably
extremely uncomfortable with the present unstable
state of affairs and can be expected to continue to
seek a solution that will give her a workable major-
ity in the Knesset.
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EC - ARAB STATES
Despite their disarray at the Washington energy
conference, the EC Nine intend to proceed with their
initiative for cooperation between the Community and
the Arab states.
The French and British are ready to go ahead,
and the political
directors from the Nine foreign ministries are ex-
pected to meet in Bonn tomorrow to review the mat-
ter. West Germany's attitude toward EC-Arab cooper-
ation remains the principal uncertainty. US coolness
toward the idea would presumably influence the West
Germans, but Bonn would probably prefer not to em-
phasize its differences with France by opposing a
move Paris has strongly supported.
Meanwhile, Bonn is trying to arrange a Community
meeting for today--to which the French would be in-
vited--to develop an EC position on the work of the
coordinating committee which was approved by the
Washington conference over French objections. Most
of the Europeans are eager to get on with setting
up the committee, but several have mentioned the de-
sirability of moving its meetings to a European site
as soon as possible. The French may make it diffi-
cult for the EC Commission to participate.
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SAM Deployment in the Moscow Area
? SA-1
? SA-2
? SA-3
* SA-5
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USSR
the Soviets
are constructing an eighth SA-5 surface-to-air mis-
sile complex near Moscow. This complex, when opera-
tional, will complete the SA-5 air defense ring
around the Soviet capital. This missile has an ef-
fective range of at least 100 nautical miles and can
engage targets between 1,000 and 100,000 feet.
The Soviets also have an SA-3 system in the
Moscow area which employs a short-range missile ef-
fective against medium and low-flying aircraft down
to 150 feet and perhaps lower. Deployment of this
system around Moscow is complete except for the
southeast quadrant which is less vulnerable to a low-
altitude attack.
Over the next few years the older SA-1 and SA-2
systems probably will be phased out, leaving the two
newer ones to provide air defense for the entire Mos-
cow area.
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USSR
The Soviets are having problems developing
liquid hydrogen rocket engines for use on space
boosters. The use of such a high-energy propellant
could eventually enable the Soviets to place twice
as much payload in lunar or planetary trajectories
with no appreciable increase in the weight of the
launch vehicle.
At a recent international meeting of experts,
the Soviets said their problems centered on con-
trolling ignition of liquid hydrogen engines. US
delegates believe that some of the problems might
be overcome by using computer controls. The Soviets,
however, probably will stay with their methods of
control, which do not require an on-board computer.
The US has been using liquid hydrogen engines since
1962 in the upper stages of several boosters, includ-
ing the Saturn launch vehicles.
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Use of high-energy propellants in the Soviets'
"J-vehicle," their counterpart of the US Saturn V
booster, would require new and larger upper stages.
Such a development is not now expected before the
late 1970s.
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LATIN AMERICA
A strong sense of nationalism underlies each
of the eight topics that the Latin Americans have
raised for discussion with the US at the inter-
American meeting of foreign ministers which begins
today in Mexico City. Five items basically concern
pressing economic issues that the Latin Americans
believe the US can and should do something about.
They want:
--greater access to US development resources
and markets;
--no coercive economic measures against govern-
ments that act against foreign-based companies;
--higher prices for raw materials and better
terms of trade;
--"codes of conduct" for multinational companies;
and
--greater access to US technology.
The other Latin American items call for a re-
view and revision of the existing inter-American
system, Panamanian sovereignty over the canal, and
a general review of the current state of US - Latin
American relations. The two items added by the US
are a review of the international situation and a
discussion of the energy crisis.
Cuba is not participating directly and the
Cuban question is not on the agenda but is bound to
come in for a good deal of attention and informal
discussion. Havana has dispatched a number of
journalists and at least one diplomat to cover the
conference and has indicated that it will be paying
closer attention to this meeting than to any simi-
lar conference in the last decade.
Although the participants have displayed an
unprecedented degree of unity--especially on the
sovereignty-related agenda items--their many dif-
ferences of opinion will still be evident. Both
the Cuban issue and the energy crisis are likely
to produce dissenting viewpoints. The regional and
subregional antagonisms and bilateral problems that
abound within the area will also intrude indirectly,
even though the participants have agreed to bar new
items from the already ambitious agenda.
(continued)
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Judging from past inter-American conferences,
tangible accomplishments at the Mexico City meeting
probably will prove difficult to identify. Indirect
gains, however, may result not so much from the for-
mal proceedings as from the corridor conversations
and other private contacts. At this point, the op-
timists and pessimists appear fairly evenly divided
among the Latin American participants. Even the
skeptics, however, are eager to hear what Secretary
Kissinger has to say. It is also recognized that
the meeting offers the best opportunity yet to raise
troublesome issues frankly and openly with a senior
US official.
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ISLAMIC SUMMIT
The main points of the agenda at the Islamic
conference opening Friday in Lahore will be the
status of Jerusalem, a Middle East settlement, and
several proposed joint projects, such as a develop-
ment bank. King Faysal--who is footing much of the
bill for the meeting--is particularly concerned with
Jerusalem and feels he has a special responsibility
to see that the Dome of the Rock area, the third
holiest shrine in Islam, is returned to Arab con-
trol.
Saudi Minister of State Saqqaf plans to fly
directly from the US to Lahore, where he will pre-
sumably report to Faysal and other Arab leaders on
his talks in Washington. Leaders of Saudi Arabia,
Egypt, Syria, and Algeria, who met at the mini-summit
in Algiers last week, may use the occasion for in-
formal consultations on results of the mission un-
dertaken by Saqqaf and Egyptian Foreign Minister
Fahmi.
Delegates to the conference will probably make
an effort to avoid public disagreement, and the fi-
nal communique is likely to be little more than a
pro-forma statement. In private, however, a number
of issues could prove divisive.
Continuation of the oil embargo against the US
and other countries will probably come up. The em-
phasis, however, is more likely to be on the damage
done to non-oil producing Muslims by the sharp price
rise. They will probably seek an arrangement that
will reduce the cost of oil to them.
President Qadhafi of Libya had been expected
to lead opposition to negotiations with Israel.
His recent meeting with Sadat and his reported
fence-mending with Faysal, however, suggest that he
has become worried about his isolation from the
Arab mainstream and may adopt a less radical stance.
Moreover, Sadat is probably right in expecting that
a moderate position on negotiations will receive
the backing of most non-Arab Muslims.
Other problems could arise at the summit.
Fedayeen terrorists have reportedly been consider-
ing an attempt on some of the participants. King
Husayn's dispute with the Palestine Liberation Or-
ganization may not arise in formal sessions, but
Yasir Arafat's decision to attend led to Husayn's
refusal.
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WEST GERMANY
Government spokesmen and Social Democratic Party
officials have denied a flurry of reports in the West
German press suggesting that Chancellor Brandt is
deeply discouraged about recent political and eco-
nomic developments in West Germany and is thinking
of resigning.
As the country's first postwar Social Democratic
Chancellor, Brandt is aware that he has been unable
to deal effectively with the party's main source of
support, the trade unions. With state elections--
the first since the national elections of November
1972--less than a month away, Brandt is understand-
ably concerned about his government's economic rec-
ord. The government's failure to enforce its ten-
percent ceiling for wage increases in settling the
public service employees' strike is expected to set
a precedent for other wage negotiations. Efforts
to keep the 1974 rate of inflation below ten percent
will be more difficult.
The embassy in Bonn notes, on the other hand,
that many of Brandt's difficulties are not of his
making. The energy crisis, inflation, unemployment,
disaffection within the Social Democratic Party's
youth wing, strains within the coalition, and disap-
pointment over the development of the European Com-
munity and Ostpolitik all must appear either unsolv-
able to Brandt or at least to require energetic lead-
ership that he for the time being seems unable to
provide.
Despite these problems, the embassy believes
he will continue as Chancellor until 1976. Brandt
not only takes pride in his own and his party's
achievements, but he is also aware that the problems
he faces are no greater than those confronting other
West European leaders.
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NOTES
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Israel-Egypt: Israeli forces are expected to
complete their withdrawal from the west bank of the
Suez Canal today as scheduled under the disengage-
ment agreement. The separation of forces, which so
far has proceeded smoothly, is to be completed on
March 5, when the Israelis are to withdraw to the
designated disengagement line in the Sinai Peninsula.
Japan-US: A scandal resulting from the falsi-
fication--apparently for non-political reasons--of
radiation monitoring reports prepared for the Japa-
nese Government by a private contractor has led the
Foreign Ministry to ask the US to suspend visits of
nuclear-powered submarines. The Japanese have in
mind a suspension of such visits for the rest of Feb-
ruary, but the duration could be longer because no
contractor capable of providing an effective radia-
tion monitoring service is willing to take the job.
The Communists are making use of the scandal to push
their opposition to US military bases in Japan. The
press is giving broad and uncritical coverage to Com-
munist charges that the Japanese public has been
systematically misled since at least 1968.
(continued)
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Vietnam-Cambodia: Hanoi's efforts to seat the
Viet Cong's Provisional Revolutionary Government have
dominated back stage maneuvering at the Conference
on the Law of War now under way in Geneva. The US
delegation believes that the final vote on the seat-
ing issue, perhaps as early as today, will be ex-
tremely close. Saigon has received only lukewarm
support from neighboring countries such as Indonesia,
Thailand, and the Philippines in trying to block the
PRG. A vote on seating Prince Sihanouk's representa-
tives, which was unexpectedly called for on February
19 by China, Algeria, and a number of other countries,
may also be held today.
International Communism: The Soviets are ask-
ing the Latin American Communist parties to meet in
Havana in late 1974. Moscow, which is also promot-
ing an all-European party meeting for late 1974,
evidently hopes that the Latin American conclave
will be yet another stepping stone toward an inter-
national Communist conference, perhaps in 1975.
Cuban Premier Fidel Castro is said to have reluc-
tantly agreed to play host.
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