THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 4 DECEMBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993010
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 4, 1971

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A010200040001-9
The President's Daily Brief
4 December 1971
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
4 December 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The war between India and Pakistan is discussed on
Page 1.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Riad yesterday delivered
a moderate exposition of well-known views at the
start of the UN Middle East debate. (Page 2)
(Page 3)
Reactions from Group of Ten nations to US willing-
ness to devalue the dollar take the line that real
negotiations can now begin. (Page 4)
The USSR has again tested its capability to inter-
cept a satellite in earth orbit. (Page 5)
Castro finally let loose a few blasts in his last
speech before leaving Chile. (Page 6)
-The future of Turkish Prime Minister Erim, who
resigned yesterday, lies in the confidence the mili-
tary have in him. (Page 7)
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16
CHINA
Peshawar
?1fri
wantipur
Islam \(
abad*
nagar
Pathan kit
ore
, Amritsar
Ai ritsar
? Ferozepore A
?IiAinbala
Jammu
vi,t) 06 sltmii>-\J
_
fiann of Kutch
+Jodpur
New Delhi*
Utarlai INDIA
+ Airfield attacked by Pakistani aircraft
MILES
ISO
+Agra
N..
-24-
552218 12-71 CIA
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INDIA-PAKISTAN
President Yahya Khan's declaration of war goes
one step beyond Prime Minister Gandhi's announcement
yesterday that in the face of Pakistani air attacks,
she had no choice but to put India on a war footing.
There is as yet no clear evidence regarding Pakistani
claims of Indian ground attacks in the west, Islama-
bad's rationale for yesterday's air strikes in the
West. In any Case, both sides now have traded air
attacks, and, further, heavier fighting has apparently
begun in the east.
The Pakistani Air Force hit some eight air-
fields in Kashmir and western India, and India
bombed Lahore and the Karachi port area, where
petrol storage tanks ?were set on fire. The Indians
also attacked Dacca airport, reportedly with MIG-21s.
? The Indian Government has decreed a state of:
emergency which is expected to be ratified during
a special session of parliament today. In,Pakistan,
which has been under a state of emergency since late
last month, the government has ordered the mobiliza-
tion of ex-servicemen and "essential persons'." Pak-
istan has reportedly banned all commercial flights
into and over both wings of the country and canceled
all Pakistan International Airlines flights. This
could complicate plans to evacuate all US dependents
and nonessential personnel from Karachi, action the
US consul has urgently recommended. India also
apparently has halted flights into New Delhi and
Calcutta.
In East Pakistan, major Indian Army and Air
Force attacks have been launched. According to a
press report, the Indian military commander in. the
area said these are aimed at forcing the surrender
of the Pakistani Army And the establishment of an
independent Bangla Desh. The US consul in Dacca
reports that Pakistani forces in the East wing were
beginning to feel the strain even before this latest
round, and that there has been ,a sharp rise in brutal
reprisals by the army in response to increased Mukti
Bahini pressure.
1
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UN.- MIDDLE EAST
Riad's restrained exposition of the Arab case in
hie speech yesterday at the UN confirms earlier
indications that the Egyptians, for the moment,
have in mind a relatively temperate resolution
which could gain broad international support.
While discussing Cairo's strategy at the UN with
US officials this week, Riad made a strong pitch
for US support in the world body. He said that
Cairo's minimum substantive demands are an en-
dorsement of the 1967 Security. Council Resolution
242, reactivation of the Jarring mission as well
as a response by Tel Aviv to Jarring's memorandum
of last February, and a provision barring Israel
from changing the status of the occupied terri-
tories.
The Egyptians appear less confident of solid
African support for a harsh resolution calling for
sanctions against Israel. Cairo now seems intent
on isolating Tel Aviv by gaining an overwhelming
vote for a noncontroversial statement of their
position. They probably calculate that if they
fail to gain US support, they, could submit a more
stringently worded resolution, placing the onus
on Washington. In their view, such a resolution
would have a better-than-even chance for passage.
Probably with Israeli encouragement, Costa Rica
has drafted an alternative text to the one the
Egyptians have in mind. The appearance of the
two texts should lead to considerable backstage
negotiations during the debate, which may last for
a week to ten days.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
The willingness indicated by the US at
the Rome conference to devalue the dollar
if acceptable concessions are made by
other Group of Ten countries had at least.
partially broken the international mone-
tary deadlock. Most foreign press com-
mentary so far has taken the line that,
even though a final settlement was not
reached in Rome, real negotiations have
now begun in an atmosphere of cooperation,
with the US having provided the break-
through. Observers have noted, however,
that even if an agreement is reached on
currency realignment, more fundamental
and longer-term issues?dollar convert-,
ibility into gold, reduction of the role
? of key currencies, and the scope of future
trade negotiations--remain unresolved.
Widespread speculation in anticipation that
the dollar will be devalued has driven the dollar
to record lows on foreign money markets, while gold
has risen to $43.75 per ounce. The only major cur-
rency not subject to heavy pressure has been the
pound. The Bank of France is buying dollars to
maintain the commercial frahc ceiling, and the
French Government is implementing additional fi-
nancial controls.
Until now the franc has not been subject
to much pressure. Paris apparently now
fears that its present two-tier exchange
system may no longer be adequate to pre-
vent speculation. To prevent appreciation
of the franc and preserve a stronger bar-
gaining position, the government is also
enacting several measures to restrict
capital inflows.
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USSR
The Soviets have conducted another test of
their capability to intercept a satellite in near
earth orbit. The target satellite--announced by
TASS as Cosmos 459--was launched on 29 November
from Plesetsk. Yesterday morning the interceptor
satellite was launched from Tyuratam.
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CUBA-CHILE
Castro stated in effect that
Chile's revolutionary process could be defended only
by using violence.
These remarks reflect Castro 'a long-held
belief?based on his own experience?that
any "revolution" has to be defended against
hostile elements. While he may now believe
that each country must undergo its own
distinct revolutionary process, he clearly
is not discounting violence as a means to
maintain revolutionary impetus. In public,
at least, Castro made a great effort through-
out his visit to keep out of Chile's do-
mestic problems. Only in his farewell
speech and in response to antagonistic
questioning from Christian Democratic
students did he drop his facade of neu-
trality. On these occasions, he argued
vehemently that the Chilean "revolution-
aries"--the Allende government--had the
right and the duty to defend themselves
against "fascists and reactionaries"--
the opposition political parties.
Within Allende '8 coalition, there are
strong differences over the wisdom of
using violence against the opposition.
The Movement of the Revolutionary Left
and most of Allende's hard-Zine Socialist
Party consider it a necessity, while the
Communist Party considers violence usu-
ally counterproductive. It was a Com-
munist goon squad, however, that used
the roughest tactics against the women's
demonstration on 1 December.
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NOTES
Chile-USSR: Chile's foreign exchange reserves
have fallen substantially since Allende's election
in September 1970, and this has forced Santiago to
request its foreign creditors to renegotiate its
debts, half of which are with the US.
USSR: The Soviet Mars 3 probe apparently went
into EFSIt around the planet on 2 December./
2, meanwhile, continues to circle the planet,/
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Turkey: Prime Minister Erim, whose government
resigned yesterday following the withdrawal of 11
technocrats from the 26-member cabinet, will remain
in a caretaker status until a new:government is
formed'. The withdrawing ministers had felt that
parliament was frustrating the government's eco-
nomic reform program and that recent conciliatory)
moves by Erim toward the dominant Justice Party
would only encourage further obstructionism. The
resignations of the reform-minded cabinet members
have probably damaged the military's confidence in
Erim's:leadership, and much will now depend on
whether and how rapidly he can form a new cabinet
acceptable to both parliament and the military high:
command.
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Top Secret
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