THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 9 AUGUST 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466734
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: August 9, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
August 9, 1976
2
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Ekeiript from general
declassification schedule of E 0 11652
exemphon category 5B( 11.(2).(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
August 9, 1976
Table of Contents
Greece-Turkey: Greece has protested the entry of the Turkish re-
search ship Sismik I into disputed waters; Turkey has re-
jected the protest. (Page 1)
Lebanon: Fighting continued in east Beirut throughout the week-
end. (Page 1)
Syria: President Asad yesterday installed the new cabinet headed
by Prime Minister Khulayfawi. (Page 2)
Egypt-Libya: Preliminary analysis of overhead photography taken
in late July indicates no significant buildup of ground
forces on either side of the Egyptian-Libyan border. (Page 3)
At Annex we present an alert memorandum on Greek-Turkish tensions
and judgments on the Greek-Turkish military balance.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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YUGOS
-24 BULGARIA
Lake
Ohrid
Lake
Prespa
ACE
psala
ALBANIA
:11:9 lfr
Ae-rOardarlefieS
36.
IONIAN
SEA
GREECE
0
0 25 50 75 Miles
0 25 50 -75 Kilometers
20
Limnos
Sismik 1 area
of operation
August 6-16
28
BLACK
SE 4
Istanbul.
SE4 OP PI4RAI4RA
6
Contested area
of operation
c?'%
Lesbos
ATHENS
46;?inth Canal
0 g
?40
TURKEY
SEA OF CRETE
218
?36
620239 8-76
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
GREECE-TURKEY: Greek
Foreign Minister Bit-
sios informed the US
embassy in Athens on
Saturday that the Turk-
ish ship Sismik I had
conducted seismic re-
search in disputed
waters off the Greek
island of Lesbos the
previous night for
several hours. Bitsios
suggested that the ship
had entered the dis-
puted area a second
time, but provided no
details.
LEBANON: Fighting con-
tinued in east Beirut
throughout the weekend
as Christian forces
moved to consolidate
their control over the
Muslim enclave of Nabaa
and Tall Zatar refugee
camp.
Athens protested to Ankara on Sat-
urday, calling on the Turks to
avoid further violation of "the
sovereign rights of Greece" but
not threatening specific action
against the ship.
Ankara has rejected the Greek note,
according to the press. Without
actually confirming the Greek alle-
gation, Turkey reasserted its
right to conduct research in con-
tested areas and warned Athens
against interfering with the Sis-
mik. The area of operation, over
which Greece lodged its protest,
falls within a larger region in
which the Turks had earlier an-
nounced the ship would operate
from August 6 to 16.
The Greek cabinet met in special
session yesterday to consider
Turkey's rejection of its protest,
and is expected to issue a state-
ment today.
The Christians have been taking
advantage of Damascus' repeated
postponements of the Syrian-Pales-
tinian-Lebanese truce committee
meeting. The Syrians gave no
reason for their cancellation of
the meeting that was to have con-
vened Saturday. Although the re-
quest may have been prompted by
President Asad's preoccupation
with forming a new cabinet, it
seems more likely that the Syrians
are employing delaying tactics as
a means of assisting the Christians.
The Red Cross, having evacuated
only 74 people from the Tall Zatar
refugee camp on Friday and having
--continued
1
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
President Franjiyah and
Camille Shamun are the
leaders who are prob-
ably most responsible
for Christian violations
of the cease-fire and
for the heady confidence
among Christians that
they can achieve a to-
tal military victory.
SYRIA: President Asad
yesterday installed the
new cabinet headed by
Prime Minister Khulay-
fawi.
been fired on by snipers at the
pick-up point, has abandoned fur-
ther efforts to enter the camp.
The announcement of the Red Cross'
decision apparently prompted some
400 families to flee the camp on
their own this weekend.
Red Cross officials have accused
the Christians of shelling the
Beirut airport Friday while a Red
Cross plane was on the runway.
50X1
The Phalanclists/
50X1
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have been less
effective than formerly in check50X1
Christian extremists.
Four principal members of the pre-
vious government, including For-
eign Minister Khaddam and Defense
Minister Talas, retain their posts.
The present cabinet, like the for-
mer one, is dominated by the Baath
Party and Sunni Muslims.
* * *
2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
--continued
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GREECE ,
,
MEDITERRANEAN SEA
Tripoli
*
Tobruk
Sidi Barrani
Sollum t
Matruh
NIGER
L-IBYA
CHAD
+Kufrah
.Siwah
TURKEY
Cairo*
SYRIA
LEBANON
ISRAEL
-
I I JORDAN
?
e)
Suez Canal
Sinai \
(;SRA ELI-, I
OCCUPIED)
SAUDI '
ARABIA
EGYPT
SUDAN
0 200 Miles
o 200 Kilometers,
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
EGYPT-LIBYA: Prelimi-
nary analysis of over-
head photography taken
in late July indicates
no significant build-
up of ground forces on
either side of the
E. tian-Lib an border.
No ground forces were detected at
Siwah, and ground activity at Mat-
ruh and Sollum appeared to be at
levels similar to those observed 50X1
prior to the reported build-up.
Photography
did show: 50X1
--a total of eight new surface-
to-air missile battalions at
Matruh, Sollum, and Sidi Bar-
rani;
--twelve MIG-21 fighters and
nineteen L-29 jet trainers at
Matruh; and
--a new airfield under construc-
tion at Sidi Barrani.
On the Libyan side, nineteen
rage 5 fighters were seen at
airfield near Tobrukj
Mi- 50X1
the
// The Libyans have
positioned three additional SA-2
missile firing battalions around
the field, and they are construct-
ing a new graded-earth landing
strip west of Tobruk.
The photography also confirmed ear-
lier reports of a military build-
up in southeastern Libya. Two
Mirage 5s were at Kufrah, the first
fighter aircraft ever detected at
this airfield. Elements of a mech-
anized infantry battalion were
noted at a military installation
north of the airfield.
--continued
3
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Egypt claims it has
"definite evidence"
that Libya was respon-
sible for the explosion
of two bombs in a gov-
ernment building in
Cairo yesterday that
injured 15 people.
A high official in the Egyptian
Ministry of Interior has charged
that Libyan President Qadhafi per-
sonally planned the incident.
With relations between the two
countries in their present state
of deterioration, Egypt would be
inclined to charge Libya with re-
sponsibility for any terrorist
act. Further influencing Cairo's
attitude, however, are the numer-
ous instances of Libyan-sponsored
sabotage in Egypt over the last
two years. Most of these were on
a smaller scale than yesterday's
bombing.
--continued
4
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
GREECE-TURKEY
We present here the substantive points of
an alert memorandum of August 7 on Greek-
Turkish tensions and judgments on the Greek-
Turkish military balance.
Both Turkey and Greece hope to avoid conflict in the
Aegean, but the war of nerves is escalating as each
side seeks to prevent the other from winning advan-
tage. The odds still appear against large-scale
conflict, but the possibility cannot be ruled out.
It should be noted that both governments see it to
be to their immediate interest to impress the US and
other states with the serious nature of the confron-
tation. Each evidently feels, at this stage, that
it must assert a hard line and show determination
lest it weaken its tactical position, play into the
hands of its rival, and give its domestic critics
ammunition. Both governments are sufficiently vul-
nerable to domestic pressures so that it would be
politically very difficult for either to make public
concessions of the kind that may be needed to get
off a collision course.
Two recent developments have added to the urgency
of the confrontation:
--One is the Turkish announcement of August 5
that the Sismik would operate in an area which
includes disputed waters between the islands
of Lesbos and Limnos. (The Turks had previ-
ously indicated that, at least for some days to
come, it would stay in non-contested waters.)
Ankara could of course avoid the disputed por-
tions of this area, but in view of the public-
ity given to this voyage it seems likely that
the government feels committed to have the ship
spend at least a brief period in contested
waters.
--continued
Al
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
As for the Greek side, the bulk of Greek naval forces--
including most of the submarines--have been at sea
since the Sismik entered the Aegean. Most of these
forces are probably operating in the northern Aegean.
Greek ground forces are in a high state of readiness.
Over the past several months, the Greeks have made
some ground force movements into Thrace and the larger
Aegean islands; these may have been part of regular
summer redeployments, as the Greeks claim, but it is
doubtful that Ankara so interprets them.
Following are the main judgments of a just-
completed interagency memorandum on the
Greek-Turkish military balance.
The Greek perception of Turkey as the principal
threat has led the Hellenic Armed Forces to under-
take preparations designed to improve substantially
their prospects in any conflict with Turkey. Spe-
cific factors which have improved the Greek position
since 1974 include:
--The reorientation of Greek ground forces
away from the northern border areas and toward
the Turkish border and the major Aegean and
Dodecanese islands.
--The modernization of the Hellenic Armed
Forces--especially the air forces.
--Increased Greek preparedness in terms of ad-
ditional active duty personnel, a recently ex-
ercised mobilization system, and a growing
pool of trained reservists.
--The degradation of Turkish military capabil-
ities resulting from the US arms embargo.
These changes have reduced the Turkish military ad-
vantage in the Aegean and in Thrace, but not enough
to affect decisively the outcome of a conflict there.
Turkey maintains quantitative superiority in virtu-
ally all respects except major naval surface combat-
ants, although the geographic dispersion of Turkish
military forces tends to offset somewhat their over-
all force advantage.
--continued
A2
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Turkey's proximity to the Greek Aegean islands pre-
sents serious constraints on Greek defensive capa-
bilities there and the Turks could probably attack
and occupy one or more of the major Greek islands.
They could not do so, however, without mounting a
major military operation which would prove costly,
deplete military stockpiles, and risk expansion to
a broader war.
In Thrace, forces currently facing each other at the
Evros/Meric (Maritsa) River border are roughly matched
in capabilities. Required river crossings against
prepared defenses would lead to high casualty rates
for the attacking force, and neither force would be
capable of sustained deep penetrations into the
other's territory.
Given the constraints on logistical resources on
both sides, the duration of high intensity conflict
would be limited to a few weeks without resupply.
This could diminish the intensity of combat after a
few weeks, but would not necessarily bring an end
to hostilities.
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