THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 1 OCTOBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992893
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 1, 1971

Declassified in -Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/18 : CIA-RDP79T00936A010000010001-4
The President's Daily Brief
1 October 1971
47
Top Secret
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/18 : CIA-RDP79T00936A010000010001-4
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
1 October 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
East and West German negotiators have resumed their
talks after both sides made some concessions.
(Page 1)
South Vietnam's President Thieu seems almost certain
to receive a vote of confidence and should be able
to weather the pre-election furor caused by his sole
candidacy. (Page 2)
LPanama
/ (Page 3)
Unrest in the refugee camps in India, as well as
prospects for shipping to East Pakistan are discussed
on Page 4.
Yesterday's National Day reception did not shed any
light on Communist China's leadership problems.
(Page -5)
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GERMANY
East and West German negotiators return to their
talks today to work out details of the four-power
Berlin Agreement initialed on 3 September. Their
discussions were stalemated until the West Germans
abandoned their insistence that the two sides use a
common German-language text. At the same time, Bonn
is encouraged by the signing of a postal and tele-
communications agreement yesterday in which Pankow
made several concessions.
The shelving of the textual problem has also
cleared the way for the -West Berlin Senat to resume
parallel negotiations with East Germany next Monday
on intra-Berlin matters. These include transporta-
tion?communications, and sanitation,matters affect-.
ing-both halves of the city, as well as arrangements'
for West Berliners to visit-the-East,
We anticipate that Pankow will still bar-
gain sharply as the talks proceed. Mos-
cow, however, will not permit Pankow to
stall indefinitely. The Soviets want the
talks completed in order to move on to the
formal signing of the Berlin Agreement and
to Bonn's ratification of the German-Soviet
treaty of 1970.
1
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SOUTH VIETNAM
President Thieu seems aZmost certain to receive what
he can interpret as a strong vote of confidence on
Sunday, despite fairly widespread unhappiness over
the election. Be is counting on heavy support from
rural areas, which have remained largely unaffected
by the political turmoil in the cities, and is said
to have passed the word to provincial officials to
ensure a large turnout. But the calls for a boycott
by the An Quang Buddhists and other groups could cut
into the vote total.
Forces in opposition to the election remain relatively
weak and divided. Barring an unexpected turn, such
as a police clash with demonstrators which produced
a martyr, Thieu should be able to weather the furor
without too much immediate damage to his over-all
political position. Although many moderate and form-
erly pro-government groups have become critical of
Thieu, only a few have switched sides and joined the
active opposition.
After the balloting, Thieu may be able to regain the
support of some of these people with conciliatory
gestures. The loss of confidence in Thieu and the
constitutional system on the part of many others will
probably endure, however, and Thieu as a consequence
is likely to face a more energetic opposition for
some time to come.
2
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PANAMA
3
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INDIA-PAKISTAN
Indian officials are concerned over growing un-
rest in the refugee camps. There have been clashes
with relief workers over distribution of rations, as
well as violence between refugees and local Indians
who consider themselves just as needy and entitled
to aid as the Pakistanis. Religious tensions lie
close to the surface and could result in more vio-
lence. Communist agitators meanwhile are trying to
stir up more trouble in the camps in order to embar-
rass the government.
Following the mining of at least five ships
by Bangla Desh guerrillas last week, seven Western
shipping firms have announced an indefinite suspen-
sion of service to East Pakistan. The lines provide
the-only scheduled service between East Pakistani
ports and the west coast of North America, all of
South America, Africa, Australia, and New Zealand.
Together they account for one-fourth of all normal
shipping. Emergency relief efforts will not be af-
fected immediately because nearly all foodgrains
are being shipped via nonscheduled charter vessels.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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NOTES
Communist China: Last evening's National Day
reception failed to shed any light on Peking's lead-
ership troubles. Chou En-lai did not attend the re-
ception nor did most of the other important Peking-
based politburo members, and there were no speeches
during the abbreviated 90-minute affair. The author-
itative editorial that usually marks this major hol-
iday has not appeared. Chinese officials have again
privately explained these latest departures from
previous practice as merely more "reform."
USSR-Sudan: The Soviets are still trying to
make a fresh diplomatic start in the Sudan, this
time using Egyptian, Syrian, and Indian mediation.
A new Soviet ambassador will depart Moscow for Khar-
toum in several days. His job will be to recoup the
harm done to the USSR's position by the bitter re-
criminations between the two in the wake of the coup
against President Numayri last July. Although Nu-
mayri is under pressure from some of his advisers
to patch up relations with Moscow, he appears to be
in no hurry and continues to make anti-Soviet state-
ments in public./
5
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