THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 4 MARCH 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014736
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: March 4, 1975

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79f00936A012500010015-2
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The President's Daily Brief
March 4, 1975
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012500010015-2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012500010015-2
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 56(15,121(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012500010015-2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15: CIA-RDP79T00936A012500010015-2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
March 4, 1975
Table of Contents
China - North Vietnam: Signs of tension between
China and North Vietnam appear on the increase
in the wake of increased fighting in South
Vietnam. (Page 1)
Thailand: The vote of confidence on Seni Pramot's
proposed coalition government is scheduled
for Thursday. (Page 3)
Korea: Last week's incident off the west coast of
Korea has again raised the issue of North
Korean access to international waters south
of the "Northern Limit Line." (Page 4)
Notes: Israel; Lebanon; Portugal; Ethiopia
--(Pages 5 and 6)
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CHINA - NORTH VIETNAM
Signs of tension in China's rela-
tions with North Vietnam appear to be on
the upswing, in the wake of the increased
fighting in South Vietnam. Hanoi has long
held the view that Peking has been stingy
in its aid to the war effort in the South,
while Peking is concerned that Hanoi might,
at China's expense, seek to expand its in-
fluence in all of Indochina.
Peking's press coverage on increased fighting ?
in South Vietnam has been remarkably reserved.
The Chinese,.. as expected, have treated communist
battle initiatives as "defensive," but Peking has
paid little attention to the successes these ac-
tions have produced. .Peking's publications con-
tinue to assert China's historic claims to sover-
eignty over the Paracel Islands, perhaps partly in
response to reported .North Vietnamese protests over
the Chinese military action there in early 1974.
The current situation in Cambodia is almost
certainly influencing Peking's wary attitude toward
North Vietnam.. As the .Khmer communists, whose ties
with Hanoi are apparently ,closer than those with
Peking, draw nearer to a military, victory in Cam-
bodia, Chinese fears ,of North Vietnamese influence
in Phnom Penh ,almost certainly grow. The Chinese
also seem concerned about increased Soviet influ-
ence on the Yhmer, communists., both direct and in-
direct through Hanoi, in the event of an early corn-.
munist victory.
(continued)
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China apparently does not believe that the
communists will win a quick victory in South Viet-
nam and apparently would prefer a continuation of
the present situation. A quick victory, together
with a communist take-over in Cambodia, would lead
to serious problems for Peking. Chinese leaders
surely recognize that the consequent absence of a
strong US presence in Indochina would bring Peking
into more direct and costly competition there with
both North Vietnam and the Soviet Union.
At the same time, however, the Chinese are
obviously interested in maintaining their equities
with North Vietnam. The delivery in early February
of eight MIG-l9 fighters to Hanoi was probably a
sop to North Vietnam's desire for additional mili-
tary support. A Chinese military delegation ar-
rived in Hanoi last week almost certainly to dis-
cuss the Cambodian situation with Vietnamese offi-
cials. The delegation is probably also intended
to balance the visit to Hanoi last year of a high-
level Soviet military group.
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THAILAND
The oft-postponed vote of confi-
dence to decide the fate of Seni Pramot's
proposed coalition government is now
scheduled to take place on Thursday.
The vote promises to be close. As a member
of the small political center, Seni apparently is
looking to the left to ensure his victory. This
might explain press reports that he will propose
in his policy statement to the assembly on Thurs-
day that all US forces be withdrawn from Thailand
within 18 months. The socialists have indicated
that they will not support a Seni government unless
it sets a timetable for US withdrawal. This is a
condition, however, that the Thai army and the
political right may not be willing to accept if
the situation in Indochina continues to deteriorate.
The conservative faction meanwhile, believes
it has the strength to defeat Seni if the vote of
confidence is taken by secret ballot.
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KOREA
The incident off the west coast of
Korea on February 26 has again raised
the issue of North Korean access to in-
ternational waters south of the seaward
extension of the Demilitarized Zone.
theUN Command's unilaterally declared
"Northern Limit Line."
The appearance of eight North Korean fishing
boats and two military escort craft in the area west
of Inchon is not unprecedented, though a group this
size is something new in recent years. Indeed, the
group's size and the presence of escort craft sug-
gest that Pyongyang planned the incursion to probe
the limits of South Korean (and US) tolerance of
North Korean activity in the seas west and south of
the Northern Limit Line.
Pyongyang seeks to draw world attention to a
situation in which its vessels are denied passage.
through international waters, hoping that South
Korea and the US will show greater restraintin en-
forcing the Northern Limit Line--much as we have in
the area of the west coast islands. In concrete
terms,. the North wants a share of valuable fisher-
ies, guaranteed access for merchant ships to its
growing port at Haeju, and a stronger claim to a
share of seabed resources, including oil, in the
Yellow Sea.
It is difficult to say whether the North will
dispatch additional craft to the contested area
during the current fishing season. If Pyongyang
were Convinced that new incursions would' not lead
to another_ military response and new ship losses,'
it would almost certainly continue to probe. The
North Koreans thus may decide to see how the over-
all South Korean and US position develops in the
aftermath of,., the latest ,incident before they make
further moves.
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NOTES
Israeli
A cease-fire in southern Lebanon between the
army and lefti?st and fedayeen forces went into ef-
fect late Sunday.
The agreement has stopped most of the fighting,
at least temporarily, although there are still Some
clashes. A general strike also is still in effect
in Sidon and Tyre. Palestine Liberation Army of-
ficers are_convinced that radical fedayeen from the
so-called .I:rejectionist" groups infiltrated Sidon
during the fighting. The, major. fedayeen groups have:
remained on the sidelines, and their Beirut head-
quarters continue to counsel them to remain calm.
Portugal's moderate civilian politicians are
cautiously optimistic that an acceptable compromise
can be worked out with the Armed Forces Movement on
the military's continuing role in Portuguese poli-
tics.
Their hopes may be premature, however, since
only the first round of negotiations has been com-
pleted, and .the Movement has yet to respond to the
.counterproposals. Should the Movement
refuse to budge,. .the "political parties might be un-
willing to press their objections. The start of the
campaign for the .constituent assembly elections is
tied to an agreement on the program. The beginning
of the official campaign .period has already been
postponed from March. 3 to March 20, and any further
delay would probably mean a postponement of the
elections, now scheduled for April 12.
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Ethiopia's ruling military council took a ma-
jor step toward its avowed goal of a socialist
Ethiopia today by announcing the abolition of the
country's feudal land-tenure system.
Private land holdings will be limited to about
25 acres, according to press reports. Preparations
for the proclamation have been closely held.
the council anticipates con-
siderable unrest in rural areas as peasants move
against large landowners.
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