THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 25 SEPTEMBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466855
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 25, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
)
September 25, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E 0 11652
exemption category 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
September 25, 1976
Table of Contents
USSR-Rhodesia: The USSR's initial reaction to the announcement
of Rhodesia's acceptance of the peace plan was predictably
negative. (Page 1)
Lebanon: The tripartite talks will not be resumed until sometime
after the Muslim holiday ends on Sunday to give the Palestin-
ians and Lebanese leftists time to examine a new Syrian
cease-fire proposal. (Page 1)
China: The Politburo, which probably has been meeting since Mao's
funeral, apparently is having difficulty resolving some of
the problems facing it. (Page 2)
USSR-China: Soviet propaganda on China continues in the concili-
atory vein adopted since the death of Mao Tse-tung. (Page 3)
Notes: China; Ethiopia; USSR; Egypt-France; Israel-Chile; Portu-
gal. (Pages 53 63 and 7)
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USSR-RHODESIA: The
USSR's initial reaction
to the report of Rhode-
sia's acceptance of the
peace plan was predict-
ably negative.
LEBANON: Arab League
mediator al-Khuli has
put off resuming the
tripartite talks until
after the Muslim holi-
day ends on Sunday, ap-
parently in part to
give the Palestinians
and Lebanese leftists
time to examine a new
Syrian cease-fire pro-
posal.
Soviet radio commentary character-
ized the plan as a deal made by
the "imperialists and racists" be-
hind the backs of the native Afri-
can majority. It said that the
plan had only the appearance of a
settlement and left the racists
with a "multitude of loopholes."
The report also expressed doubt
about how much trust should be put
in Smith's promises. The commen-
tary concluded with an accusation
that the US and Britain had formu-
lated a plan to save their politi-
cal and economic interests, which
are dependent upon the existence
of the "racist regimes."
The Soviets are likely to refrain
from more authoritative commentary
in their central press until they
are sure of the details of the
plan and have some indication of
how the "front-line" African lead-
ers are going to play it.
* * *
Both Yasir Arafat, who declared a
unilateral truce on Thursday, and
the Syrians, by their latest pro-
posal, apparently wish to appear
as helpful as possible to the new
Lebanese president in restoring
some momentum to the stalled tri-
partite negotiations.
It is uncertain how much longer
Syria's President Asad can con-
tinue to tolerate the present
stalemate. The Syrians' political
pressure on Arafat over the past
month or so has produced meager
results thus far, while continuing
to drain the Syrian treasury.
--continued
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CHINA: Several devia-
tions from usual Chi-
nese procedure suggest
that the Politburo,
which has probably been
meeting since Mao's
funeral, is having dif-
ficulty resolving some
of the immediate prob-
lems facing it.
Should Sarkis fail to make any
tangible progress soon through ne-
gotiations, Asad seems almost cer-
tain to resort once more to force
to try to bring the PLO and the
leftists to terms. In all proba-
bility, the Syrians would let the
Christians bear the brunt of any
new fighting in order to avoid in-
curring heavy casualties.
The timing of any new Syrian-Chris-
tian military move is likely to
depend in part on whether the pro-
posed four-power Arab summit con-
ference in Saudi Arabia ever comes
off.
Aside from the larger issue of the
succession, which the leadership
may not yet have tackled head on,
the Chinese have still not pro-
nounced on the disposition of Mao's
body or the future course of the
current anti-rightist campaign.
There also seems to be some inde-
cision, predating Mao's death,
over whether to name Politburo mem-
ber Wu Te to the post of Chairman
of the National People's Congress,
the de facto head of state.
The Chinese have canceled celebra-
tions for National Day on October
1. Although this is being ex-
plained as a continuation of the
mourning period for Mao, political
problems may be involved.
--continued
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USSR-CHINA: Soviet
propaganda on China con-
tinues in the concilia-
tory vein adopted since
the death of Mao Tse-
tung.
Wu Te, who is next in line for the
Chairmanship of the National Peo-
ple's Congress, was attacked in
wall posters by party leftists in
1974, and it is possible they are
trying to block his promotion. As
NPC chairman, Wu could be entitled
to a spot on the Politburo's elite
Standing Committee, currently down
to four members. This would im-
prove the position of rightists on
the Committee which, with two left-
ists, one rightist, and "centrist"
Premier Hua Kuo-feng, is not truly
representative of the composition
of the Politburo or the Central
Committee. A better balance on
the Standing Committee is directly
related to the succession since
that body, in the immediate future
at least, is likely to rule China
collectively.
* * *
Soviet propagandists are busy re-
calling the supposedly halcyon
days of Sino-Soviet cooperation
in the 1950s and expressing Mos-
cow's desire to return to those
days. The marked shift in Soviet
propaganda probably is intended
to encourage any of Mao's succes-
sors who may be inclined toward
less hostile relations with the
USSR, or at least to build a pub-
lic case that Moscow has done all
it could to improve relations with
China.
Moscow, because it has no insight
as to where in China's bureaucracy
the less anti-Moscow elements are
located, is trying to appeal to
all elements who might figure in
China's succession struggle in its
broadcasts to China. The Soviets
--continued
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are directing some attention to
China's military, who they have
long maintained will probably be
decisive in determining the out-
come of China's succession struggle.
* * *
--continued
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Chinese forces are con-
tinuing to maintain a
low-level alert posture,
although the standdown
in Chinese military ac-
tivity following Chair-
man Mao's death has
ended.
The situation in Addis
Ababa remains uneasy in
the wake of labor and
student unrest this
week and an assassina-
tion attempt Thursday
night against Major
Mengistu Hailemariam,
the first vice chairman
of the ruling military
council.
NOTES
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naval, observation units along
China's southern coast are main-
taining a low-level alert until
October 1. Some air and ground
forces presumably will do the same.
The Chinese seem to be particularly
wary of the Taiwanese. During the
10-day mourning period for Chair-
man Mao, Chinese fighter activity
was mainly restricted to defensive
operations near the southe n
opposite Taiwan.
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The unrest has apparently heightened
the nervousness of the council,
which has been especially concerned
over the threat posed by the clan-
destine Marxist Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Party. This party,
which demands an immediate return
to civilian rule, is well organized
and has extended its network of 25X1
supporters to labor, students, and
other urban groups.
Mengistu announced yesterday that
he had been slightly wounded in the
attack on his car and that another
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passenger--rumored to be a member
of the ruling council--has been
hospitalized. The council may use
the attack and civil unrest as an
excuse to repress its opponents,
much like it did during strikes
last year.
* * *
France.
*
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Israel has delivered
air-to-air missiles to
Chile, the first Israeli
arms sale to that coun-
try.
The Communist-con-
trolled trade union
confederation in Portu-
gal is moving a-lead
with plans for a con-
gress aimed at confirm-
ing Communist dominance
of the country's labor
movement.
* * *
Chile's other recent arms acquisi-
tions reportedly include surface-
to-surface missiles from France
and anti-tank missiles from West
Germany. Chile has contracted for
over $200 million worth of mili-
tary equipment from Western sources
since the end of the Allende gov-
ernment.
Latin America has become one of
Israel's largest arms markets. The
Israelis have sold a variety of
military equipment to 13 other
Latin American countries, primarily
in the past three years.
* * *
The Communists' pressure may lead
the non-Communist unions to set
up a rival confederation of their
own.
The Socialists have built up a
substantial following in organized
labor during the past year, but
still cannot rival the organiza-
tion and discipline of the Commu-
nists. The Socialists are using
their control of the government
to pass legislation unfavorable
to the Communists. One of the
first priorities will be repeal
of the law permitting only one
labor confederation, leaving the
Socialists free to set up a rival
non-Communist organization.
Nearly half of some 300 to 400
Portuguese unions are affiliated
with the Communist-controlled con-
federation, whereas the non-Com-
munists claim the allegiance of
only about 50.
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