THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 28 SEPTEMBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007828
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 28, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
September 28, 1974
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:74!
Exempt from general
declassification uhedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 58(1),(2).(3)
declauified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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September 28, 1974
Table of Contents
Oil Producers: OPEC members will earn about $100
billion this year from oil exports. (Page 1)
India: Poor harvest will force New Delhi to import
six million tons before June 1975. (Page 2)
USSR: Soviets say they will make no large purchases
of US grain in near future. (Page 3)
Arab States: Egyptians and Syrians try to soothe
Husayn. (Page 4)
Israel-Egypt/
Argentina:
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(Page 6)
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Thailand: Leftist students press for changes in 25X1
draft constitution. (Page 7)
Notes: Peru; Greece (Page 8)
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OIL PRODUCERS
OPEC members will earn an estimated
$100 billion from oil exports in 1974.
Actual receipts during the year for this oil
will approximate $85 billion; the difference between
these figures is explained by a lag in payments.
Producing countries are paid generally about two
months after the oil is shipped.
Actual OPEC receipts for oil are expected to
rise from $31 billion in the first half of 1974 to
$54 billion in the second half--a 75-percent in-
crease. Oil company payments in the second half
will fully reflect the January 1974 price increase,
and full payments for participation oil will begin
in October. In addition, retroactive payments for
participation oil received in the first half from
Iran, Libya, and Saudi Arabia will be made begin-
ning in September.
Because of a quarterly bulge related to the
timing of payments, OPEC oil receipts during Octo-
ber will reach nearly $12 billion. The transfer
of this large sum could well create uncertainty in
financial markets and spark speculative capital
movements.
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INDIA
New Delhi once again faces grain
shortages because of a poor summer mon-
soon.
About two thirds of annual grain production is
grown during the monsoon period from June through
September and harvested from October through Decem-
ber. The monsoon also provides soil moisture for the
winter sowing of spring crops, as well as much of the
water stored for irrigation.
The US embassy estimates the grain harvest this
fall at between 58 and 62 million tons. This would
be 1 to 5 million tons larger than in 1972, the most.
recent poor harvest, but this year India is worse
off. Government stocks on July 1, 1974, were only 4
million tons; in July 1972 they were 9 million, and
the population has grown by 26 million since then.
The outlook is still not as bad as it was dur-
ing the mid-1960s, when successive drought years
required grain imports of 20 million tons over a
two-year period. Nevertheless, India will have to
import 6 million tons of grain before June 1975 in
order to prevent widespread unrest.
To date, India has arranged to import 3.1 mil-
ion tons of grain, including 1.8 million tons from
US commercial sources. On Monday, the Indian embassy
in Washington requested PL-480 grain shipments.
This reverses New Delhi's position, held since the
Indo-Pakistani war in late 1971, that India would
not accept PL-480 assistance.
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USSR
A Soviet foreign trade official has
told the US Deputy Chief of Mission in
Moscow that the USSR will make no large
purchases of US grain in the near future,
but he declined to declare Soviet inten-
tions beyond December.
Soviet reluctance to reveal import plans prob-
ably stems from genuine uncertainty about the size
of their crop and the course of world grain prices,
as well as from the secretive nature of the Russians
We believe that this year's harvest, although good,
will be about 198 million tons--some 7 million tons
below the Soviet plan. This may force a small re-
duction in stocks or limited purchases of foreign
grain to meet domestic requirements and external
commitments.
The Soviet official said that data on the
size of this year's grain crop was not yet avail-
able, but would be announced at the meeting of the
US-USSR Joint Agricultural Committee at the end of
October. He also indicated that the US government
would get no warning of specific Soviet import re-
quirements before any contacts with US grain ex-
porters. Concluding on a conciliatory note, he
commented that he would be interested in knowing
what level of Soviet purchases of feedgrains for
the remainder of this year "would not be burden-
some."
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ARAB STATES
Jordanian ambassadors in Cairo and
Damascus have received soothing responses
to their protests over the communique from
the recent Egypt-Syria-Palestine Liberation
Organization meeting in Cairo that recog-
nized the PLO as the "only legitimate" rep-
resentative of Palestinian interests.
We believe that Sadat and Asad both look on
the Cairo communique as a necessary inducement to
get the "moderate" and majority PLO leaders committed
to negotiations, and that the two presidents hope to
inveigle Husayn back into line as well. This task
will be complicated by the hostility and suspicion
with which Husayn and his prime minister regard
Sadat, and Asad may have to take the lead in pro-
posing some formula that reasserts Jordan's essen-
tial role in dealing with Israel for the recovery
of West Bank territory.
Egyptian government Of-
ficials have taken some pains to explain away a brief
flurry of anti-Jordanian comments in the Cairo press,
and US Ambassador Eilts in Cairo believes President
Sadat still hopes to bridge Egyptian-Jordanian dif-
ferences and will continue active diplomatic efforts
to do so.
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ISRAEL?EGYPT
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ARGENTINA
The military is preparing for a
tougher struggle against terrorists now
that army officers are falling victim to
the guerrillas' "indiscriminate repris-
als" for the "execution" of 14 guer-
rillas captured last month.
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Some kind of army mobilization may in fact be
under way already.
the Argentine Superior War
College may terminate its sessions earlier than
usual so that students can report to duty units--
presumably to be on alert for new terrorist attacks.
The press says informed sources believe the military
is pressing for a declaration of a state of siege.
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THAILAND
Leftist university students who dis-
- like several provisions of a draft consti-
tution have cast some doubt on an expected
pro forma National Assembly vote for rat-
ification next week.
The leftists do not have wide student support
but Prime Minister Sanya, in an attempt to avoid
further street demonstrations, issued a statement
supporting their position and urged his advisers
to work against ratification.
If the assembly rejects the draft, Sanya pre-
sumably will offer a new version more to the stu-
dents liking. This would even further delay de-
velopment of a new constitution--a process begun
after the fall of the military regime a year ago.
The odds still favor passage of the constitu-
tion when it comes u for a final vote next
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NOTES
Peru: Dissidents are stepping up antigovern-
ment ..-C-Ervity in anticipation of the sixth anniver-
sary of military rule next Thursday. Small bomb
explosions in major cities recently may indicate
the beginning of the "psychological terrorism" cam-
paign
Although the Velasco government
is in no immediate danger, growing opposition among
civilians may present a serious challenge over the
longer term. For the first time since the military
took power, there are signs that middle-class groups
may move from political protest to more violent
action. Large quantities of anti-military propa-
ganda are being distributed as the anniversary ob-
servance draws near.
Greece: The demobilization of Greek reservists
called to duty at the beginning of the Cyprus crisis
is a clear sign that the Greeks believe there is
little chance of war with Turkey any time soon.
During the crisis, Athens called up 390,000 reserv-
ists. By mid-September, only 68,000 reservists
were still on active dutyr-
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