THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 14 JANUARY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015003
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 14, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
January 14, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 58(1),(2)0)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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January 14, 1976
Table of Contents
USSR - Middle East: Soviet airborne forces increased
their readiness status yesterday--one of sev-
eral developments in the Soviet Union and the
Middle East that may be related. (Page 1)
USSR: The Soviets may be withdrawing their three
naval ships from the Gulf of Guinea.
USSR-US: A deputy director of the USA Institute in
Moscow says there is growing concern in the
USSR that Soviet actions in Angola could prej-
udice chances for a SALT II agreement. (Page 6)
Portugal-Angola: Portuguese officials claim "legal"
considerations have impeded efforts to block
Cuban use of the Azores as a transit stop for
flights to Africa, but say they are now pre-
pared to make a "political" approach to the
Cubans. (Page 7)
Notes: USSR-Morocco; Libya (Page 8)
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USSR - MIDDLE EAST
Soviet airborne forces increased
their readiness status yesterday--one of
several developments in the Soviet Union
and the Middle East that may be related.
We are unable to explain this alert, and it
could be no more than the initial step of an im-
pending Soviet exercise. Conceivably it could be
a response to what Moscow perceives to be a poten-
tial crisis, such as the situation in Lebanon, but
we have no evidence pointing in this direction.
As might be expected, the Soviets have shown
some increased concern in recent days over the de-
teriorating situation in Lebanon. Several days
ago a Tass correspondent in Beirut suggested that
Washington and Moscow might exert strong pressure
on the factions to end the fighting. He raised
the possibility of limiting the flow of arms into
Lebanon. Yesterday an Izvestia editorial said
events in Lebanon arouse serious anxiety in view
of alleged plans to divide the country along re-
ligious lines.
We have not noted any apprehension on the
part of the Soviets that their own interests are
at stake in Lebanon. There also have been no in-
dications of Soviet concern about Israeli or Syr-
ian military intervention in Lebanon--actions that
might trigger a Soviet military response to the
fighting.
(continued)
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Israel
In Lebanon, Christian militiamen ap-
pear to have gained the advantage over
Palestinian forces trying to break the
Christian blockade of Tall Zatar refugee
camp in suburban Beirut.
Phalanges forces reportedly are holding a
line encircling the camp, despite heavy fire from
adjacent Muslim areas and a nearby Palestinian
camp. The Christians say they will not lift the
encirclement of Tall Zatar and other camps until
Palestinian forces in the camps are disarmed and
brought under control of the Lebanese army. The
Palestinians have countered with threats to block-
ade Christian communities in predominantly Muslim
areas of Beirut.
(continued)
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Clashes continued in nearly all areas of Bei-
rut yesterday, and most roads leading into the capi-
tal had been cut as the fighting spread to surround-
ing villages. The fighting has also intensified in
Zahlah and the Tripoli-Zagharta area, where the
army has failed in its attempts to separate warring
Christian and Muslim militiamen.
President Franjiyah met with leaders of the
major Christian groups yesterday, presumably to
work out a coordinated position before his expected
meeting with Syrian President Asad on Saturday.
Franjiyah almost certainly intends to use Christian
military successes as his major bargaining point in
negotiations with the Syrians.
Apparently in reaction to an appeal
from Yasir Arafat for Arab action to re-
lieve Beirut's embattled Palestinians,
Egypt yesterday called for an Arab League
initiative to end the "intolerable" Chris-
tian blockade.
President Sadat, declaring Egypt's concern to
preserve the Palestinian presence in Lebanon, later
denounced the recent turn of events there and added
an injunction against Israeli intervention. With-
out elaborating, he said Egypt would "assume its
responsibilities" if Israel intervened.
The Palestinians' current uncomfortable situ-
ation gives Egypt a new cause for concern that
could alter the relatively detached position it
has adopted thus far toward the Lebanese crisis.
Involvement of the Palestinians on a large scale
and a deterioration in their position would force
Egypt to undertake a more vigorous effort at medi-
ation in order to preserve its Arab credentials.
This is apparently all Sadat has in mind at
present. He reiterated yesterday that Arab or
other foreign intervention is not the way to re-
solve the crisis.
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Morocco
vo /
Guinea
Conakry
Abidjan
Gulf of Guinea
Con -o
Pointe Noire
razzaville
?Luanda
Atlantic Ocean
Angola
590 Ivo Miles
0 500 10'00 Kilornelers
559101 1-76
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USSR
The Soviets may be withdrawing their
three naval ships from the Gulf of Guinea.
Yesterday morning the destroyer, landing ship,
and naval tanker were about 200 miles southwest of
Abidjan, Ivory Coast, moving northwest. The ships
are probably en route to Conakry, Guinea.
the destroyer would make a port call at Pointe
Noire, Congo from January 18 to 25;
The Kresta-II-class cruiser that arrived at
Conakry last Saturday is still there, and two naval
oil tankers also are at Conakry. Although the So-
viet intelligence collection ship has not been lo-
cated since January 10, we believe that it, too, is
en route to Guinea.
The movement of these Soviet naval units could
have resulted from a decision in Moscow last week to
quiet international speculation about Soviet activ-
ities having to do with Angola. On January 8 Tass
issued a statement asserting that there were no So-
viet warships "off Angolan shores." The following
day, the Soviet LST at Pointe Noire--which had been
scheduled to remain there until January 12--made
preparations to put out to sea, and by January 10
it was already well out of port.
If an effort is indeed under way to appear to
step back from the Angolan situation, the Soviets
will probably have to send the destroyer and the
cruiser back to the Mediterranean and end the IL-62
shuttle between Havana and Luanda.
The Sverdlov-class cruiser and naval tanker
remain in the Mediterranean near the Strait of
Gibraltar. The Kresta-I-class cruiser that joined
them on Monday is moving toward a Soviet anchorage
off the coast of Tunisia.
(continued)
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The Kashin-class destroyer that accompanied
the Kresta-I from the Northern Fleet continues to
linger in the Atlantic approaches to the Strait.
It was refueled yesterday by a Soviet merchant
tanker that has returned to the Mediterranean from
Conakry. The fact that the destroyer did not enter
the Mediterranean with the Kresta-I raises questions
about its future operations.
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USSR-US
V.V. Zhurkin, a deputy director of
the USA Institute in Moscow, told
that there is growing con-
cern in the USSR that Soviet actions in
Angola could prejudice chances for a
SALT II agreement.
Zhurkin's remarks offer one of the few signs
that some influential Soviets have begun to con-
sider seriously US warnings about the potential
ramifications of the Angolan situation. As a leader
of the USA Institute, however, Zhurkin is probably
particularly sensitive to the impact of Angola on
the US-Soviet relationship.
Zhurkin defended Soviet assistance to the Pop-
ular Movement, reiterating Moscow's position that
the USSR would not sacrifice its long-standing policy
of support to national liberation movements for the
sake of detente. He expressed confidence that de-
tente would continue despite periodic irritants and
debates within Western countries.
He acknowledged that Western public opinion
entailed an element of risk for Soviet policy, es-
pecially if that opinion jeopardized chances for US
Congressional ratification of a new SALT agreement.
He said progress toward strategic arms limitation
remains the linchpin of improved US-Soviet rela-
tions, both because of its intrinsic importance and
because a new agreement would give impetus to other
negotiations, such as the mutual force reduction
talks.
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PORTUGAL-ANGOLA
Portuguese officials claim "legal"
considerations have impeded efforts to
block Cuban use of the Azores as a
transit stop for flights to Africa, but
say they are now prepared to make a "po-
litical" approach to the Cubans on the
matter.
A Portuguese Foreign Ministry official said
yesterday that Lisbon had felt constrained by the
commercial air agreement between Portugal and Cuba.
An official claimed publicly last week that there
was no evidence that the Cuban planes in question
were transporting military personnel or equipment.
Portuguese hesitation to come to grips with
the Cuban airlift may result from disagreement
within the ruling military over Lisbon's policy
on Angola. 7
A Foreign Ministry official told the US em-
bassy yesterday that Portugal intends to be guided
by an African consensus on recognition of the gov-
ernment set up by the Popular Movement. He did
not indicate how many African countries would have
to recognize the regime before Portuguese recogni-
tion would be forthcoming.
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NOTES
The Soviet fishing trawler that was seized on
December 30 by the Moroccan navy was released Sat-
urday, according to the US defense attache' in Rabat.
The trawler had been stopped some 10 miles
northwest of Agadir and was subsequently detained
at that port. Rabat probably believed the ship was
running arms to the Polisario Front, a Saharan inde-
pendence movement backed by Algeria. Morocco al-
leged that the ship was inside its 70-mile economic
zone. The Soviets claimed the vessel was in inter-
national waters.
Clashes between Libyan university students and
police last week resulted in at least ten deaths.
The occupation of the embassy in Washington by about
60 Libyan students yesterday was in protest against
the Libyan police action.
The trouble began on January 4 when students
at the University of Benghazi demonstrated against
government manipulation of the election of student
representatives to the national congress of Libya's
sole political party. According to several accounts,
the students beat three policemen to death and were
then fired upon.
Libyan students have become increasingly re-
sentful of Qadhafi's dictatorial rule and his con-
stant interference in their curricula. The inci-
dent at Benghazi is one of several indications of
intensified tribal and regional frictions.
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Top Secret
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