THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 9 JULY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015159
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: July 9, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
The President's Daily Brief
July 9, 1976
25X1
Top secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 513(1),(25,(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
a. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
L ;
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14: CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
F nE, F IVE.LILLJEdIV 1 LAIN,
July 9, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Christian and Syrian forces seem to have gained the
upper hand in the north. The Israelis evidently are contin-
uing to take a relatively relaxed view of the situation.
(Page 1)
USSR: Our early July estimate of the Soviet grain crop, assuming
normal weather, is 195 million metric tons. (Page 3)
Ken a-U anda:
Saudi Arabia - Syria: Saudi Arabia's first substantial aid pay-
ment this year will help ease Syria's serious financial
problems. (Page 6)
Notes: Cuba; Hungary (Page 7)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
MEDITERRANEAN
SEA
BEIRUT
Sidon
DAMASCUS
IA
I AEL
620038-7-76 CIA '
MILES 20
0 KILOMETERS 20
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14: CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
L?i I.?==1 L_ ._ A 1.?.1 .1 .._ -
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
A I," At 1 11 A-I .1. .1 V 1.-i UI l .1.-, .L- a A V A. %..." .L V 4....i 2.
LEBANON: Christian
forces, with Syrian sup-
port, apparently have
blunted the Palestinian
and leftist offensive
against Christian vil-
lages in northern Leb-
anon.
The Palestinians' des-
peration over the sit-
uation at Tall Zatar
apparently prompted
charges yesterday from
Palestine Liberation
Organization chairman
Yasir Arafat that Syria
is planning an imminent
attack on Beirut.
25X1
The Christians reportedly regained
Chekka and another village on 25X1
Wednesday and were able yesterday
to take control of the main access
route to the town of Zaqharta.
In Beirut, heavy clashes continued
yesterday in the central part of
the city and in the suburbs sur-
rounding Tall Zatar refugee camp.
Muslim and Palestinian units try-
ing to break the siege of Tall Za-
tar evidently have begun sending
"suicide squads" into neighboring
Christian communities.
Syrian troops and artillery have
supported the attack on Tall Zatar,
but there is no direct evidence
that substantiates Arafat's claim.
President Asad did meet with top
Syrian military and political lead-
ers on Wednesday, possibly to gain
endorsement of a new initiative in
Lebanon. 25X1
--continued
1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
A V .1 1h. 1 11 A-d A A V A.1 ki I .L.'LJ1 VA VAN A.,/ A
The Israelis apparently
still believe that
events in Lebanon pose
no immediate threat to
their security and are
continuing their tacit
endorsement of Syria's
role there.
In a recent conversation with the
US ambassador, Israeli Defense
Minister Peres--who is usually sus-
picious of Syrian aims--cautiously
indicated that Israel could toler-
ate a consolidation of Syrian con-
trol in Lebanon. According to
Peres, this would be less damaging
to Israel's security than a left-
ist-Palestinian takeover. Peres
also discounted speculation that
President Asad is seeking to trans-
form Lebanon into an anti-Israel
confrontation state.
The Israelis probably remain con-
cerned, however, that Syria's mil-
itary presence in Lebanon could
ultimately work to Israel's disad-
vantage. Prime Minister Rabin,
for example, has repeatedly ex-
pressed the view that Asad could
eventually be forced by Arab and
domestic pressures to reverse his
course and seek an accommodation
with the Palestinians and Lebanese
leftists that would isolate the
Christians. 25X1
Tel Aviv has long hoped that the
Christians will be able to maintain25X1
a strong political position in or-
der to prevent the Palestinians
from osin a threat to Israel.
--continued
2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
_ ?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14: CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
/' .1 .111:d I IX 0.11?/Ed .1 V.1 LJ1 V1--i .1
-
USSR: Assuming normal
weather, our early July
estimate of the Soviet
grain crop is 195 mil-
lion metric tons--un-
changed from the mid-
June estimate. Later
today the Department of
Agriculture will pub-
licly release a crop
estimate of the same
size. The actual crop
could be substantially
higher or lower depend-
ing on the weather in
the next month.
Soviet grain require-
ments are especially
difficult to estimate
this year because of the
legacy of last year's
disastrous harvest.
We estimate that the winter grain
crop, which will soon be harvested,
will be 45 million metric tons.
Crop conditions in most of the
European USSR, the major winter
grain area, remain unusually fa-
vorable. Continuation of wetter-
than-normal weather in the north-
ern European USSR, could, however,
cause delays and above-average
losses.
Overall prospects for spring grains
continue to be good, and production
is now estimated at 150 million
tons. Conditions west of the Urals
which favored winter grains also
have fostered the development of
spring grains. In contrast to the
rather uniform crop development in
this area, crop conditions east of
the Urals are uneven in the main
spring grain areas.
Moscow's requirements will depend
on the rate of rebuilding poultry
and hog inventories, on the rate
of recovery in meat production,
and on the replenishment of grain
stocks. More claims on Soviet
grain supplies may come from East-
ern Europe, especially Poland.
Large increases in grain exports
to Eastern Europe and in grain re-
serves, as well as a rapid buildup
of livestock herds, would require
substantial additional grain im-
ports.
--continued
3
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
run I Ill, FIVEAJ.ILILL IV I l.1.1V L. _I
There is no reliable in-
formation on the likely
scale of Soviet grain
imports for the balance
of the crop year. Bal-
ance of payments con-
siderations may be crit-
ical.
The large Soviet import contracts
for grain and soybeans in recent
months indicate that Moscow is
giving high priority to rebuilding
its livestock sector. So far, the
Soviets have bought an estimated
13.6 million tons of grain for de-
livery beginning this month. This
figure includes 6.5 million tons
from the US, 1.6 million tons of
which was purchased during the past
week. Under the US-Soviet grain
agreement, there remains a minimum
Soviet commitment of 2.2 million
tons.
The Soviets also have bought 2 mil-
lion tons of soybeans, of which
1.5 million tons probably will come
from the US.
Outlays for grain and soybean pur-
chases to date have reached nearly
$3 billion. Moscow has shown a
willingness, however, to continue
spending heavily for grain imports
despite its hard-currency deficit
and growing indebtedness. Nonethe-
less, it probably is increasingly
concerned over these problems.,
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
EAST AFRICA
Lake Thea
jibouti
Gulf of Aden
SUDAN
Addis Abati;""
SOMALIA
CENTRAL
AFRICAN
REPUBLIC
Lake Rudolf
SOMA
c-. Mogadisci
Lake A
'berl
? kas n
ambala
KENYA
Nairobi
Lae 1 e
N 4
BU UNDI
Bujum ura
INDIAN OCEAN
Lake Altreru
ke s,
Hu
TANZANIA
Lake Tanganyika
La
,ZAMB!A
82000_ 7.,76 CIA
bares Salaam
200 Miles
200 Kilometers
MOZAMBIQUE
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
Ii=1111 MOW
LJt== -
-
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
/ ?LFIV LE: I v./
KENYA-UGANDA
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
--continued
5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
L77:77
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
A F A IL A II A-I A A VU kJ A _L.! Li VA %..Z.LV L1 A
25X1
The Saudis had been withholding
aid this year to underscore their
displeasure over Syria's contin-
uing dispute with Egypt. Damascus'
willingness to reach even a super-
ficial reconciliation with Cairo
at the Saudi-sponsored meeting in
Riyadh late last month obviously
prompted Saudi approval of the new
grant.
The decision to provide assistance
also reflects Riyadh's concern that
Syrian President Asad's position
has been seriously weakened by his
political and military problems
with Lebanon, Iraq, and Egypt.
The Saudis' grant may reflect a
decision to resume their assistance
program for Syria. This would
strengthen Damascus' capability to
pursue its military campaign in
Lebanon and its economic develop-
ment programs at home. Riyadh's
move could also encourage the
smaller Persian Gulf states that
often follow Saudi Arabia's lead
to resume financial aid to Syria.
Saudi assistance to Syria during
1975 exceeded $400 million; total
Arab aid was approximately $800
million.
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
? 1/It / // Li / /N../....ii..31/_/1:d/ V .1 L/1 V Li I
A third convoy of Cuban
ships probably return-
ing troops from Angola
is to lerneAfrica on
JuZu 13,
Hungary's increase in
the prices of meat prod-
ucts on Monday appar-
ently provoked no ad-
verse public reaction.
NOTES
Two of the ships in the convoy
have carried troops previously.
One is able to transport up to 700
troops and the other between 50(-25)(1
and 700 troops. If the ships ledve
on schedule, they should arrive in
Cuban waters in early August.
The Hungarian success will compound
Poland's embarrassment over its
mishandling of proposed price hikes.
Unlike Warsaw, Budapest has raised
prices periodically on a number of
food items without incident. The
recent Hungarian price increases,
however, were less drastic and
covered fewer foodstuffs than those
proposed in Poland.
7
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010019-7