THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 20 MARCH 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992539
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: March 20, 1971

-
Declassified in Part --Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP-76-T6-936A009300180001-5
The President's Daily Brief
20 March 1971
Li 9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
50X1
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
20 March 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
On Page 1 we comment on the draft ABM agreement which
Semenov tabled at yesterday's SALT session.
The first Soviet military airlift to Egypt this year
is under way. (Page 2)
Cairo yesterday made its first public claim of: a
shooting incident in the Suez Canal area since last
August. (Page 3)
In Turkey', Nihat Erim., a moderate, is forming an in-
terim government,while.the radical left-shifts its
activities to Istanbul, (Page 4)
On Page 5 we review the military situation in north-
ern Laos.
\Chinese/
(Page 6)
The Italian police have rounded up right-wing con--
spirators in a move to quiet criticism from the. left-.
(Page 7)
North Korea
/(Page 8)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SALT
At yesterday's plenary, Semenov tabled a "Draft
Treaty on the Limitation of Deployment of ABM Sys-
tems." He took the familiar line that an early
ABM-only agreement as a "first step" would create
better conditions for solving problems related to
limiting offensive weapons.
The Soviet draft is essentially a rehash of the
"basic provisions" tabled last December, but contains
additional specific details. These include provi-
sions for a numerical limitation of 100 ABM launchers/
interceptors within a 200-kilometer radius of Moscow
and Washington. The draft treaty seems deliberately
patterned on the US proposal set forth in Option E,
and the new specifics are clearly aimed at making
the Soviet provisions appear responsive to repeated
US requests for further detail. There are still,
however, two significant differences: Moscow's fail-
ure to limit the number of ABM radars within the per-
mitted zone and its failure to ban the upgrading of
SAMs.
The Soviets probably believe that tabling a draft
treaty at this time has tactical advantages. In
making a detailed proposal, they seem intent on try-
ing to throw the ball back into the US court. Mos-
cow may hope in so doing to give Washington something
to ponder during Semenov's absence during the Soviet
party congress.
The Soviets seem to feel that their stand on forward-
based systems gives them a plausible argument for
creating a stalemate on the offensive side, while
they focus on ABM limits. Semenov's new push for
discussion of ABMs, however, does not rule out con-
current discussions in Vienna on limiting offensive
weapons. During the post-plenary discussions, a So-
viet adviser commented that both offensive and de-
fensive limits could still be discussed.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
Soviet Airlift to Egypt
5?
AN-22
Length
Payload with full fuel
Range
Cargo compartment
AN-12
109 ft
9,500-18,400 lbs*
2,200-3,800 nm*
10ftX8ftX44ft
AN-22
186 ft
99,000 lbs
5,100 nm
14ftX14ftX88ft
' These figures vary depending on the model flown.
dap ..11111.2111,k
r???,?ago,
?
5-6561
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T0093-6A009300180001-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR-EGYPT
The first Soviet military, airlift to Egypt this
year is now under way. Since early this month, 13
Soviet AN-12 and three AN-22 military transports
have arrived in Cairo;
Between February and April of last year
about 45 MIG-21 jet interceptors, which
were subsequently piloted by Soviet per-
sonnel, were airlifted to Egypt. In late
July another airlift occurred in which
replacement aircraft for four Soviet-
piloted MIG-21s lost in aerial combat
were delivered. There is no evidence
that MIGs are included in the present
airlift, but we cannot rule out the pos-
sibility that the cargo includes replace-
ments for two Soviet-piloted MIGs that
recently crashed.
2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
Declassified in Part - 'Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP9T00986A009300180001-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
EGYPT- ISRAEL
Cairo radio yesterday made the first public
claim of a shooting incident in the Suez Canal area
since last August. It alleged that Egyptian anti-
aircraft guns had fired on two Israeli Phantom jets
over Port Fuad at the northern end of the canal.
Cairo's purpose in making the claim may
have been tO.underscore the fragility of
the current de facto cease-fire and to give
added emphasis to international peace ef-
forts. Than apparent effort to convey
the impression of Egyptian readiness for
renewed conflict, Cairo radio in recent
days has.reported preparations by Presi-
dent Sadat and various military commanders
for a meeting today of the "Committee for
Preparing the State for War."
Aside from the. fairly regular reconnais-
sance by both Egyptian and Israeli air-
crafts-and the increased state of alert in
effect since the ceasefire expired on 7
March, no unusual military activity has
been detected in recent weeks on either
side of the canal. :Away from the imme-
diate canal area in Egypt, regular train-
ing and defensive measures have continued
but these is no evidence of preparations
for offensive military action.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
Nihat Erim, Turkey's new prime minister - desig-
nate, a political moderate and an outstanding legal
authority, appears to be a reasonably good choice to
head the government during this troubled period. He
has had wide experience in both domestic and
foreign affairs and in balancing divergent political
forces. Reformist in outlook, .Erim is also one of
Turkey's foremost authorities on the thorny Cyprus
problem.
5511 73 3-71
t
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
Declassified in Part --Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
TURKEY
? The new government to be formed by Nihat Erim
during the next few days will be composed largely of
representatives of the four largest political par-
ties and perhaps some independents from the Senate.
Neither former prime minister Demirel as head of the
Justice Party nor Ismet Inonu, the head of the Repub-
lican Peoples Party, is expected to participate.
Under the constitution, an interim or provi-
sional government is not subject to a vote
of confidence. Erim's mandate, however,
appears to be somewhat broader than normal
for such a government. The question of new
elections is yet to be resolved but there
have been suggestions that they may be held
next October.
With some degree of normalcy returning to An-
kara, the radical left, which has been responsible
for most of the recent unrest, is now shifting the
focus of its activities to Istanbul.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
-
ang Prabang
,
an Ban
PLAINE
Khonarigarilla,
13 aksane
13 THAILAND
? Government-held location
? Communist-held location
BURMA OP
THAILAND
camisonm
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
50X1
Declassified in Part - 'Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LAOS
The Communist offensive west of the Plaine des
Jarres--now nearly two months old--has yet to make
any major gains. Over 10,000 North Vietnamese troops
still surround government positions at Ban Na, Phou
Long Mat, and Phou Pha Sai, and they continue to
harass the main complex at Long Tieng on a regular
basis. No important positions have changed hands,
however.
Since their damaging sapper attack on Long Tieng
in mid-February the North Vietnamese have apparently
concentrated on resupplying and repositioning their
units, and have generally avoided large-scale ground
assaults against fortified positions. Intercepted
messages suggest that the Communists have suffered
substantial casualties from air strikes and govern-
ment artillery bombardments and that they continue
to have supply problems. The government, meanwhile,
has significantly reinforced the Long Tieng region.
Aggressive patrolling in recent weeks has helped to
keep the Communists off balance. Over 10,000 irreg-
ular combat forces are now in the area.
Although the North Vietnamese offensive
has lost some of its momentum, there is
no evidence that the enemy is disengaging.
Only about two months of good weather re-
main, however. If the Communists are de-
termined to take Long Tieng, they should
begin to press harder soon.
5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T009-3-6A009300180001-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
COMMUNIST CHINA
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
50X1
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
Declassified in Part - '-Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ITALY
Nationwide police raids last week against right-
wing conspirators are now being sensationally played
up in the Italian- press. The primary targets were
the leaders.of the neo-Fascist National Front
50X1
50X1
Allegedly the culmination of investigations
begun when the National Front made a ludi-
crously half-hearted and closely monitored
move last December, the raids were in fact
timed to quiet criticism from the left about
government inaction rather than to quell any
genuine right-wing threat. The government
may now find itself under pressure to take
some balancing action in order to appease
those already complaining that the real
danger to Italy comes from the left and not
from the "insignificant right."
?
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
Declassified in Part -"a'nitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP19T009i6A009300180001-5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
:North Korea/
NOTES
Pakistan: President Yahya Khan and Mujibur
RahmaFEEETIETEued their talks today, despite sev-
eral deaths yesterday in what appears to have been
the most serious clash involving the army in almost
two weeks. Mujib again took a tough stance on Thurs-
day when he rejected Yahya's proposal to conduct an
investigation of killings earlier this month, partly
because the probe was to have been held under mar-
tial law. At the same time the refusal of Z. A.
Bhutto to join the talks in Dacca, at least for the
time being, underlines the pressures against making
concessions which West Pakistani politicians and
military are bringing to bear on Yahya.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5
Declassified in Parr- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RE7P79Th0936A009300180001-5
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A009300180001-5