THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 22 AUGUST 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007798
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: August 22, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
August 22, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category SKI
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
August 22, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Diplomatic effortsto get Greek and Turkish Cypriot
leaders talking again made some progress yesterday.
Athens insists it will not participate in peace
talks until Turkish forces pull back to positions
they held when demarcation lines were agreed upon.
(Page 1)
Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam's visit to Washing-
ton this week underscores Damascus' interest in Con-
tinuing to pursue negotiations rather than war.
(Page 3)
Reports that oil producers have begun investing more
funds directly in the US were a.major factor in the
dollar's sharp rise on foreign currency exchanges
last week. (Page 4)
Hanoi apparently plans to strengthen logistic units
along the infiltration route through southern Laos
preparatory to the normal resumption of heavy supply
shipments through that corridor during the dry sea-
son. In Vietnam, the Saigon government is consider-
ing abandoning some of its geographically isolated
outposts in the north should they come under heavy
communist attack. (Page 5)
Foreign reaction to your nomination of Governor
Rockefeller has been generally favorable. We have
culled some noteworthy foreign radio and press com-
ments., (Page 6)
Key judgements of a CIA memorandum--Potential Impli-
cations of Trends in World Population, Food Produc-
tion, and Climate--are presented on Page 7. ,
Notes on Soviet and Prince
Sihanouk's unexpected arrival in Bucharest are on
Page 9.
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ITALY
ALBANIA
BULGARIA
YUGO.
GREECE
?1., ?
A
? Crete
?
MEDITERRANEAN
LIBYA
SEA
TURKEY
CYPRUS
TA
lUEZ
CANAL
EGYP
SYRIA
LEBANON
ISRAEL( j
JORDAN\
\
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Territory controlled
by Turkish forces
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International
airport ?
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Akrotiri
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bh- e/ia
Larnaca
Li
Famagusta
CYPRUS'
UK Sovereign base area
, Turkish-Cypriot enclave
0. 10
MILES
556445 8:74
20
It-1 II y"
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
CYPRUS
Diplomatic efforts to get Greek and Turkish
Cypriot leaders talking again made some progress
yesterday. Cypriot President Clerides has agreed
to meet with his Turkish Cypriot counterpart to
discuss urgent humanitarian problems, such as ref-
ugees. Although the scope of the discussion is
narrow, it is likely to extend to some political
matters.
Athens continues to refuse to participate in
peace talks until the Turkish forces pull back to
the positions they held on August 9, when the de-
marcation lines were agreed upon. Athens knows
this is an impossible condition and clearly wishes
to avoid responsibility for negotiating at such a
disadvantage, preferring that 'the Greek Cypriots
take the lead for now.
On Cyprus
Turkish Cypriot leader Denktash warned in a
press conference yesterday that the Turkish army
would take new military action to protect Turk-
ish Cypriots if President Clerides is unable to
control the Greek Cypriots. He told US Ambassador
Brown that only a limited number of Greek Cypriots
would be permitted to return to their homes in the
Turkish area.
Clerides has admitted to Ambassador Brown that
he is ,not politically strong enough to take on the
various terrorist groups in Cyprus at this time,
but that he would try to bring these elements under
some sort of control and disarm them. He said that
if the Turks were reasonable his task would be much
easier as there is presently considerable confusion
among the terrorist groups.
(continued)
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In Greece
The Greek government has banned all demonstra-
tions and the US embassy reports that anti-US inci-
dents have diminished. Greece, however, continues,
to refuse diplomatic clearance for landings at
Greek airfields other than Athens, and flights in
and out of the capital require six hours prior
notification.
The Greek government has not actually issued
a recall order for its military personnel at NATO,
and this has encouraged some NATO authorities that
Athens is having some second thoughts about with-
drawing from the NATO integrated command.
The Cease-fire
No reports of major cease-fire violations on
Cyprus were received yesterday. The UN contingent
patrolling Famagusta is continuing to ignore a
Turkish order to withdraw. According to the Greek
press, there was an incident yesterday on the Greek/
Turkish border in the Evros area in which one Turk-
ish soldier was killed. This is the first incident
reported in the border area.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SYRIA
Foreign Minister Khaddam's visit to Washington
this? week underscores Syria's? interest in continuing
to pursue negotiations rather than war. Damascus'
reaction over the past month to Israeli military
maneuvers and talk of war, for example, has been
unusually restrained. President Asad has, however,
put the Syrian army on a precautionary alert.
We have seen no indication that Syria is pre-
paring to renew hostilities soon or that Asad is
under any pressure to do so. 1-gs tough rhetoric,
the reorganization and intensive retraining of the
Syrian armed forces, and the Soviet military re-
supply effort--all cited
recently as evidence of Syrian hostile intent--seem
designed in large part to establish a credible
Syrian threat to bolster Asad's negotiating posi-
tion.
Without Egyptian support or the element of
surprise, the Syrians are aware they would risk a
military disaster by carrying out a large-scale
attack against Israel. There is always the danger,
of course, that the Syrians might become disen-
chanted with the peace talks. But they do not ap-
pear anywhere near that point now.
In the meantime, President Asad seems mainly
preoccupied with sorting out his relations with
Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestine Liberation Organ-
ization in preparation for the next stage of the
Geneva talks.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
Reports that oil producers have begun investing
more funds directly in the US were a major factor in
the dollar's sharp rise on foreign currency exchanges
last week. Since August 9, the pound declined nearly
2 percent against the dollar; other European curren-
cies declined as much as 2 percent in relatively ac-
tive trading.
The reports apparently stem from Kuwait's taking
a larger part of its mounting oil revenues in dollars.
Kuwait is selling off its sterling holdings, as
some press ports indicate. The last oil payment,
made to Kuwait at the end of July, consisted of a
much higher share of dollars and a relatively lower
proportion of sterling than payments made under an
agreement with the oil companies that was renegoti-
ated last May.
Although this agreement does not specify the
percentages of currencies in which payments must be
made, Kuwait's willingness to accept a lower propor-
tion of sterling indicates that it does not intend
to increase its sterling holdings as rapidly as in
the past.
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108 110
1
Demilitarized Zone
TH
Gulf of
Thailand
Capitol Special Zone
SOLITtl. VIETNAM
1 8 MILES 110
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
INDOCHINA
Hanoi apparently plans to strengthen logistic
units along the infiltration route through southern
Laos preparatory to the normal resumption of heavy
supply shipments through that corridor during the
dry season. According to a field translation of a
recent intercept, infiltration groups totaling some
3,500 to 4,000 men are scheduled to move south from
North Vietnam during early September. This would
be the first substantial infusion of manpower into
the infiltration system since the fall of 1973, when
Hanoi sent more than 22,000 men south.
Most of those men were used to improve and ex-
pand communist base areas and roads through the Laos
panhandle and western South Vietnam. The North Viet-
namese used the Laos road network to move large quan-
tities of supplies as well as numerous troops to the
South between November 1973 and May 1974.
As seasonally heavy rains hit Laos early this
summer, the communists shifted their logistic activ-
ities to the South Vietnam corridor which does not
receive heavy rains until September. The North Viet-
namese are currently moving large amounts of war ma-
teriel along this route through western South Vietnam.
Continued North Vietnamese military pressure
in Quang Ngai and Quang Nam provinces has led the
government to consider abandoning some of its geo-
graphically isolated outposts in the north, should
they come under heavy communist attack.
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GOVERNOR ROCKEFELLER'S NOMINATION
Foreign reaction to your nomination of Gover-
nor Rockefeller has been generally favorable. We
propose to treat this subject at greater length in
a day or two when foreign government reaction
should be better known. Meanwhile, the following
foreign radio and press comments are noteworthy:
--A Moscow domestic broadcast reported that
Governor Rockefeller in 1972 had "highly eval-
uated" the steps taken to improve US-Soviet
relations and had credited them with benefit-
ing the international situation.
--Israel's independent Yedoit Aharonot, the
country's second largest newspaper, hailed
the nomination of a "friend of Israel" and a
man who will endorse the policy of Dr. Kissin-
ger. Reflecting current pique over the recent
US-Jordanian communique and the timing of Dr.
Kissinger's invitation to Prime Minister Rabin,
the paper claimed, however, that the Vice
President - designate is a friend "whose help
can be sought to check the hasty initiatives
of the US Secretary of State."
--Reaction from Taiwan is mixed, the press
noting with "reservation" the tremendous in-
terest on the part of the Chase Manhattan
Bank to get into China.
--The influential Frankfurter Allgemeine
Zeitung reviewed Governor Rockefeller's long
career in political and public service and
concluded he "will be an influential Vice
President."
--The communist L'Humanite of Paris predict-
ably describes your choice as one of "money
seeking money," in which the new "non-elected
President has chosen Nelson Rockefeller as an
also non-elected Vice President."
--The non-communist Stuttgarter Zeitung de-
scribes Governor Rockefel er as a "good
lobbyist for President Ford in the financial
aristocracy," and describes the nomination as
a return to the "traditional marriage between
the Republicans and big capital."
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Change in Population Distribution
1970 and 2000
Les
3.6 Billion
Developed
untries
Developed \Countries,
including,USSR
30%
1970
China
6.4 Billion
Developerl'Cpuntries,
including USSR
21%
Less Developed
Countries
. 61%
2000 ?
556441 8-74
? Based on UN "Medium" population projection
P.7 :41k de
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
POPULATION-FOOD PRODUCTION-CLIMATE
Following are the key judgments of a CIA memo-
randum--Potential Implications of Trends in World
Population, Food Production, and Climate. The con-
cluding paragraphs, which consider the effects of a
cooling climatic trend, necessarily are highly spec-
ulative.
Trying to provide adequate world food supplies
will become a problem of overriding priority in the
years and decades immediately ahead--and a key role
in any successful effort must fall to the US. Even
in the most favorable circumstances, with increased
devotion of scarce resources and technical expertise,
the outcome will be doubtful; in the event of adverse
changes in climate, the outcome can only be grave.
The momentum of world population growth, espe-
cially in the less developed countries, is such that
even strong measures taken now to reduce fertility
would not stop rapid growth for decades. Thus, most
less developed countries must cope with the needs of
much larger populations or face the political and
other consequences of rising death rates.
Demand for food rises inexorably with the growth
of population and of affluence. Increases in supply
are less certain. Man's age-old concerns about the
adequacy of food supplies have resumed with particu-
lar urgency since the crop-failures of 1972.
The rich countries need have no fear of hunger,
though the relative price of food will probably rise
at times. The poor, less developed countries must
produce most of the additional food they will need
to support their growing populations. They cannot
afford to import it, nor is it likely they can count
on getting enough aid from the food-exporting coun-
tries. They face, however, serious political, eco-
nomic, and cultural obstacles to raising output and
are in for considerable strain, at the least, and
probably for periods of famine.
The US now provides nearly three fourths of the
world's net grain exports, and its role is almost
certain to grow over the next several decades. The
world's increasing dependence on American surpluses
portends an increase in US power and influence, es-
pecially vis-a-vis the food-deficit countries. In-
deed, in times of shortage, the US will face diffi-
cult choices about how to allocate its surplus between
affluent purchasers and the hungry world.
(continued)
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Direction of Net Grain Trade
1948-52 and 1973-74 (prelim.)
EXPORTS
1948-1952
1973-1974
556442 8-74
IMPORTS
Westen Europe
22%
USSRand
13/0 Eastern Europe
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Implications of Climate Change
The implications for the world food situation
and for US interests would be considerably more seri-
ous if climatologists who believe a cooling trend is
under way prove to be right.
--If the trend continues for several decades,
there would almost certainly be an absolute
shortage of food. The high-latitude areas, in-
cluding the USSR and north China, would exper-
ience shorter growing seasons and a drop in
output. The monsoon-fed lands in Asia and Af-
rica would also be adversely affected.
--US production would probably not be hurt much.
As custodian of the bulk of the world's export-
able grain, the US might regain the primacy in
world affairs it held in the immediate post-
World War II era.
--In the worst case, if climate change caused
grave shortages of food despite US exports, the
potential risks to the US would also, rise.
There would be increasingly desperate attempts
on the part of powerful but hungry nations to
get grain any way they could. Massive migrations,
sometimes backed by force, would become a live
issue and political and economic instability
would be widespread.
--In the poor and powerless areas, population
would have to drop to levels that could be sup-
ported. The population "problem" would have
solved itself in the most unpleasant fashion.
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NOTES
USSR:
Cambodia: Prince Sihanouk arrived unexpectedly
in Bucharest on August 20 to attend Romania's 30th
Anniversary celebrations of its liberation in World
War II. An official delegation from Lon Nol's gov-
ernment, in Bucharest for the World Population Con-
ference, includes former prime minister Hang Tun
Hak, who in the past has tried unsuccessfully to
open channels to Sihanouk. There is no evidence
that Sihanouk plans any contacts with Phnom Penh
officials, but the Romanians have expressed interest
in acting as intermediaries between the two Khmer
belligerents and may try to arrange a meeting.
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Top Secret
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