THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 24 JANUARY 1969

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005976581
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 24, 1969

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The President's Daily Brief
24 January 1969
9
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PUK 1Mh 11K1JIDhIN 1 UNLY
I. MAJOR PROBLEMS
MIDDLE EAST
Gunnar Jarring, obviously worried about the impact of
the great power consultations proposed by France, told a
US Embassy officer in Moscow on 22 January that the Soviets
had reassured
tinue and the
East problem.
him that they wanted to see his mission con-
Security Council remain engaged in the Middle
Jarring had intended to renew his individual talks with
Eban and the Arab foreign ministers in Europe in mid-February.
The great power ,talks--if they materialize--may cause some
further slippage in these plans.
U Thant is also anxious to keep the UN's hand in in the
search for a Middle East settlement. He told Ambassador Yost
on 23 January that, even though he thought four-power talks
would be "appropriate and useful," the participants should meet
"explicitly as permanent members of the Security Council."
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EUROPE
A high Belgian official says the European Commu-
nity is moving "straight toward" adoption of a tax on
soybeans and related products. US companies annually
sell about $500 million worth of these products in Com-
munity countries. Community officials see the tax as
a necessity, despite the outcry they know it will cause,
in order to deal with growing butter surpluses in West-
ern Europe. This question may come up in next week's
Council of Ministers meeting, which will also open a
new round of bitter haggling over the Community's own
agricultural policies,
2
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PUK 1 fiL liKESIDEN1 ONLY
SOVIET AFFAIRS
The latest tally shows that more than 75 new SA-3
low-altitude surface-to-air missile sites have been built
in the USSR and at Soviet installations in Eastern Europe
since mid-1967, when deployment of this system was resumed.
Deployment had been suspended in 1965, after about 100 sites
had been built.
The resumption of deployment may have resulted from
a review of Soviet air defense requirements, including an
examination of US fighter-bomber tactics in Vietnam. In
addition, the original SA-3 system may have been improved.
Testing of the missile continued after 1965.
preparations are
being made--under tight security wraps--for an interna-
tional conference to be held in East Berlin from 28
through 31 January. This could be the often-postponed
meeting of the Warsaw Pact's political leaders, or pos-
sibly a summit conference of the members of the Council
for Economic Mutual Assistance (CEMA).
In either case, the discussions will probably center
on steps to re-establish unity under Moscow's leadership.
It will be a difficult meeting regardless of whether the
emphasis is military or economic, because of strong diver-
sity of views among the participants.
3
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FOR 11-1E PRES1DEN1. ONLY
Preparations continue for the funeral tomorrow of
the young suicide victim, Jan Palach. There is no other
public demonstration under way except for the silent
thousands filing by the coffin, which is placed beneath
a statue of Jan Hus, an early hero )of Czechoslovakia's
fight for independence. Five minutes of silence was ob-
served at noon in Prague factories and in the main squares.
The government has announced that yet another young man',
the seventh, set himself on fire yesterday.
Few policemen are in evidence, and there is apparently
no truth to rumors that substantial Soviet forces are moving
back into Prague. Nevertheless, disquiet over possible
anti-Soviet disturbances tomorrow continues. Today's ap-
peal by Dubcek for law and order was seconded by student
leaders who warned of provocations, but neither Dubcek nor
the students could guarantee to control the populace.
VIETNAM
4
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CHINA
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PUK 11-IE PKESIDEN1 VALI
Although no major ground engagements or shellings
occurred in South Vietnam on 23-24 January, allied forces
continued to encounter stiff enemy resistance to a cor-
don operation in southern coastal I Corps.
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POI< '11-1E IRESIDENI ONLY
II, OTHER IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS
PERU
The generals will be meeting before the end of Jan-
uary to decide whether to retain Velasco in the presidency,
and it appears that the moderates who oppose Velasco's
noisy nationalism have the upper hand. Their leader,
Prime Minister Montagne, has said more than once, however,'
that he would prefer to leave Velasco in office for a few
months to absorb the economic and political repercussions
of the expropriation of the International Petroleum Com-
pany. We consider it fairly certain that Velasco will
eventually be replaced, but we have no good indication
when this will take place.
NIGERIA
At annex is a discussion of the worsening situation
in Nigeria.
SOUTH KOREA
President Pak's supporters, looking toward the 1971
elections, have launched a program to eliminate the con-
stitutional barrier to a third term and to neutralize the
opposition. Leaders of his party have decided to intro-
duce a constitutional amendment in the National Assembly
this May and to hold a national referendum in August--
when the potentially volatile students are dispersed on
6
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PUK 11-th IRENIDLIVI UNLY
vacation.
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Pak himself has not publicly committed himself on
the third term issue. His supporters, however, by get-
ting an early start hope to put him in a position where
refusal would be difficult. Whether they can minimize
opposition and avoid a national political crisis depends
largely on the manner in which their campaign is carried
out. Heavy-handed tactics against politicians, students
and the press would almost certainly benefit opposition
forces.
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C NTRO
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PM< PRE5IDEN1 ONLY
NIGERIA
SIGNIFICANCE: Washington's efforts to steer clear
of any direct involvement in the Nigerian civil war
while implicitly supporting the principle of Nigerian
unity has drawn the opprobrium of both sides in the
struggle. The Soviet Union, posing as Nigeria's
friend in need, has furnished considerable military
materiel and gained points accordingly. The French,
in a smaller way, have done likewise with the Biafrans
No end to the war is in sight, and mass starvation in
Biafra seems probable in the coming months. As the
situation worsens, the US will come under increasing
pressure to provide humanitarian assistance which will,
in turn, further reduce its influence in Lagos.
There is no sign of an early end to the 18-month-
old war in Nigeria. Stiffened by increased quantities
of arms reaching them over the French-facilitated air
bridge from Gabon and Ivory Coast, the Biafrans have
since September completely stalled the more powerful
Federal armies. With the courage of their conviction
that they face racial extermination if they lose, the
Ibo tribesmen who predominate in Biafra are likely to
go on fighting even if their remaining major population
centers are captured. At the moment, neither side
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1-DR 1HE PRE,SWENT ONLY
appears ready to break the four-month stalemate around
the shrunken Biafran perimeter.
Despite the military stalemate and increased inter-
national pressure for peace negotiations, the federal
authorities are as determined as ever to achieve a mili-
tary victory, and prospects for a negotiated settlement
remain dim. Federal leader Gowon in a New Year's Day
speech said he may soon order a general mobilization,
presumably to include conscription. Gowon is sensitive
to an increasing war-weariness, particularly among Yoruba
tribesmen in the Western State, and to frustration among
the Nigerian war hawks. These latter tend to blame the
prolongation of the war on Western, particularly US, sup-
port for Biafra, and have accused the US of embracing a
policy of imperialism aimed at balkanizing Nigeria. Gowon
himself probably does not believe this, but he is aware
that there are those who do, and that they could threaten
his own position should the stalemate continue. Yoruba
war-weariness, a less personal danger to Gowon, is prob-
ably viewed by the Biafrans as justification of their
strategy to hold on until internal strains cause the dis-
integration of the remainder of the Nigerian federation.
While the US has become more suspect in the eyes of
many Nigerians, the USSR has been building a reputation
as Nigeria's friend in need. The Soviets have furnished
Nigeria with considerable military materiel, including
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I-DR 'IRE PRESIDENT ONLY
some 25 jet fighter aircraft, and last November a Soviet
military attache took up residence in Lagos. Nigeria had
for many years kept the Soviets at arm's length, and
Gowon would probably have preferred to obtain his mili-
tary supplies from Nigeria's traditional sources. As
the demands of the war effort multiplied, however, the
Nigerians found the British to be too slow in fulfilling
their requirements, and the US has refused outright to
issue permits for arms sales to Lagos.
The Soviets have increased their diplomatic presence
in Nigeria since the civil war, and in November a Nigeria-
USSR economic assistance agreement was signed. As the
military stalemate forces Gowon even further toward "non-
alignment," the Soviet position will be enhanced while
the US and UK lose ground.
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The refugee problem resulting from the war will prob-
ably worsen within the next few months. The Ibo exodus
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that preceded the federal troops' advance on Biafra's
cities has crammed some 7 million people into approxi-
mately 7,500 square miles, and starvation has become a
serious problem. Nigeria has accepted the necessity of
foreign participation in relief for the refugees, but
most Nigerians probably disapprove of any relief to the
Ibos, even the ICRC operation from Fernando Po, which
was suspended earlier this month by Equatorial Guinea.
The federal authorities strongly resent the activities
of several independent relief agencies flying supplies
from Sao Tome, from where some arms are also being flown
to the Biafrans.
Federal sensitivity to relief activities was re-
cently demonstrated when Gowon reacted strongly to the
US provision of aircraft to relief agencies flying to
Biafra. Gowon told the US ambassador in Lagos that this
move was further evidence that the US is changing to a
position of support for Biafra, and stressed that it
could have "serious consequences" for US-Nigerian rela-
tions. Gowon probably wants continued good relations
with the US, but he will almost certainly be faced with
growing anti-US sentiment, both from jingoists seeking
a scapegoat for the federal inability to win the war and
from those genuinely fearful of US support for Biafra.
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Top Secret
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