THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 11 SEPTEMBER 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014899
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 11, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
September 11, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification uhedule of ED. 11652
exemption categoty,511(11.12),(3)
declassified only on aPPtdval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
September 11, 1975
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Prime Minister Karami has announced that
the army will take up buffer zone positions
between feuding Muslims and Christians.
(Page 1)
Israel-Lebanon V
/ (Page 3)
Portugal: The influx of refugees from Angola is
straining government resources and already is
changing the political equation. (Page 4)
Portugal-Azores: Gains by the anti-Communist
forces on the mainland and improved prospects
for local autonomy seem to have lessened the
likelihood of armed rebellion in the islands.
(Page 5)
China: The factionalism among Chinese leaders now
appears to include more direct opposition to
Chairman Mao. (Page 6)
Notes: Egypt; USSR; USSR-Somalia; Portugal; USSR;
Zaire-Angola; Laos (Pages 7, 8, and 9)
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MEDITERRANEAN
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LEBANON
Prime Minister Rashid Karami an-
nounced last night that the 17,000-man
Lebanese army will take up positions
in a buffer zone to be created between
Muslim and Christian strongholds in
northern Lebanon. The zone will sep-
arate Tripoli district, which is 78
percent Sunni Muslim, from adjoining
Zagharta district, which is 90 percent
Maronite Christian.
The army will seek to avoid being drawn into
the fighting by staying out of the metropolitan
areas of Tripoli and Zagharta, where security will
remain the responsibility of the internal security
forces. The army, however, will "separate the com-
batants if fighting breaks out again." In reality,
the fighting--although sharply reduced?has not yet
stopped, and army units are sure to suffer some
casualties while moving into position.
Use of the army, which Christians had advocated
during three days of cabinet debate, was made pos-
sible by President Franjiyah's accedence to Karami's
demand that the army commander, Iskandar Ghanim, be
replaced. The new commander is General Hanna Said,
formerly commander of a military region in eastern
Lebanon.
Said, like Ghanim, is a Maronite Christian.
He has generally supported centrist Christian and
Muslim politicians who over the years, however, have
been at odds with the more conservative Franjiyah
and Interior Minister Shamun. His appointment thus
represents a compromise between Christians and Mus-
lims.
Karami announced that the cabinet had decided
to use the army only after "contacts with the dis-
puting parties." The Muslim and Christian factions
that have been fighting in the Tripoli area prob-
ably were receptive to such a proposal. Both had
suffered heavy casualties, and--because they had
not been resupplied by the major fedayeen groups
or the large Christian militias--were short of
ammunition.
(continued)
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According to the US embassy in Beirut, Karami
yesterday also sought the acquiescence of Palestine
Liberation Organization chairman Yasir Arafat.
Arafat and leftist Lebanese leaders like Kamal
Jumblatt probably will go through the motions of
condemning Karami, but they are not likely to take
up arms against the army. At present, even the
major Palestinian and leftist leaders have an in-
terest in avoiding more serious fighting in Lebanon.
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ISRAEL?LEBANON
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PORTUGAL
The influx of refugees from An-
gola is straining government resources
and is already changing the political
equation. Only 753000 of an expected
3753000 Portuguese have been repatriated
so far. Despite the government's optimism
about its ability to dispense assistance
to the returnees, the mechanism is not
keeping up with daily needs.
The refugees are bitter over financial losses
and the disruption of their lives and generally
blame pro-Communist elements in the government and
military for their plight. Most of the refugees
are originally from northern Portugal, where their
problems and the sympathetic local response have
further aggravated discontent in the region.
The refugees have begun to organize and have
already demonstrated that they have fewer inhibi-
tions about resorting to violence than their com-
patriots. Several rallies and demonstrations have
erupted into violent confrontations with counter-
demonstrators or security forces, and refugees
participated in many of the attacks on Communist
offices in the north.
In the short term, the returnees will support
the anti-Communist faction within the military and
the democratic parties. But unless these political
groups can deal significantly with the refugees'
problems of unemployment and related needs--and
this seems doubtful--the returnees will become a
volatile element in Portugal that will create fur-
ther instability.
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PORTUGAL-AZORES
Gains by the anti-Communist forces
in Portugal, coupled with improved pros-
pects for local autonomy, seem to have
lessened the likelihood of an armed
rebellion in the Azores.
Sources have told our consulate in the Azores
that the Azorean Liberation Front missed a unique
opportunity to move when pro-Communist former prime
minister Vasco Goncalves was still in power. Now,
not only has Goncalves been effectively removed,
but local targets, such as the Communists and unpop-
ular local officials, have been scattered and no
longer represent a visible threat to Azorean aspi-
rations.
The Azoreans' traditional discontent--such as
their desire for greater autonomy, economic inequi-
ties between the islands and Portugal, and a lack
of understanding of Azorean problems in Lisbon--
can be substantially overcome if the recently
formed governing junta, made up of prominent Azore-
ans, is allowed to function without undue mainland
interference. The junta, headed by the locally
popular and politically skillful military governor,
General Altino de Magalhaes, has been asked to set
up a new permanent government for the archipelago.
It has been given a generous budget, which should
effectively help to counteract charges of economic
neglect.
General Magalhaes, who has just completed an
inspection tour of the islands, said that most
Azoreans on reflection now realize that independence
would create serious problems. He also said that
most of his troops no longer support a rupture.
The general's assessment of the sentiment now op-
posed to independence may be exaggerated, but there
is little doubt where he stands on the issue./
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CHINA
The factionalism among Chinese
leaders now appears to include more
direct opposition to Chairman Mao.
An article in China's second leading daily
newspaper strongly suggests that some factions are
using the current criticism of an ancient Chinese
novel as a means of expressing their opposition to
the Chairman. The article, published on August 30,
seems to make a vigorous defense of Marshal Lin
Piao, who fell from power after an abortive coup
attempt in 1971, and is almost certain to be read
in China as a call to oppose Mao.
Articles such as these suggest that the main
protagonists in the criticism of the novel are Mao
and some elements in the military. Since the fall
of Lin Piao, Mao has been persistent in his ef-
forts to purge several military men who, he ap-
parently believes, were in league with Lin and
harbor pro-Soviet tendencies. At least some of
the articles may be an attempt by the military to
stave off yet another move against them by the
Chairman.
Mao's own view seems to be represented by a
People's Daily editorial of September 4 that calls
the criticism of the novel a study in "capitula-
tionism" and makes specific reference to capitu-
lating to the Soviet Union--a theme apparently
aimed at the military.
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NOTES
The Voice of Palestine radio in Baghdad re-
ported yesterday that Egyptian President Sadat es-
caped an assassination attempt in Alexandria within
hours after he initialed the Egyptian-Israeli dis-
engagement agreement last week.
The Palestinians, along with the Iraqis, often
are the source of inaccurate reports on Egypt;
either would be entirely capable of fabricating
an assassination story to cause disquiet in Egypt.
Sadat is prone to pour out his woes to our ambas-
sador in Cairo, and probably he would have told
him if such an attempt had been made. While we
doubt the Baghdad story, we do think that Sadat
now is a prime target for Arab terrorists.
The USSR,
has bought 1 mitt-ton tons of soybeans.
Moscow will use the soybeans to augment this
year's poor harvest of feed grains and forage crops.
The Soviets have made only one major purchase of
soybeans before--1.2 million tons from the US in
1972. Soybeans can also be processed into vege-
table oil, but the USSR will probably produce
enough vegetable oil this year to meet domestic
requirements.
Soviet
Somalia
(continued)
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Portuguese Socialist leader Soares made a
successful bid last week at the London meeting of
West European Socialist leaders to get more finan-
cial support for his party from his Socialist
colleagues.
In a reversal of their policy, the French
Socialists now intend to begin an extensive pro-
gram of assistance. The conferees agreed to en-
courage visits by key Portuguese political and
military leaders and to organize "solidarity cam-
paigns" in European countries. They also agreed
with the EC position, however, that government as-
sistance to Portugal should be withheld until there
is clearer evidence that Lisbon is moving toward
a democratic political system.
The Soviets are turning more and more to the
Eurodollar market to finance a hard-currency trade
deficit that could run as high as 3 billion this
year.
The First National City Bank of New York has
agreed to arrange a five-year $400-million Euro-
dollar financial credit for the Soviet Foreign
Trade Bank. Other US banks also are likely to
participate in the consortium loan, which will be
the fourth time in the past ten months that Moscow
has tapped the Eurodollar market. The $800 million
raised by these loans will reduce the pressure on
Moscow to sell gold in a market depressed by the
International Monetary Fund's decision to reduce
its gold holdings. If the Soviets use the Euro-
dollar loans this year in addition to an estimated
$1.5 billion in net import credits, they will need
to sell only $700 million in gold to cover a
$3-billion deficit.
(continued)
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Zairian
Angola
The Lao communists are accelerating pressure
against Pr7Te Minister Souvanna Phouma and King
Savang, and it seems likely that both will be forced
from office by early next year.
The Pathet Lao, until now, have treated the
monarchy and Souvanna with circumspection. The
communist-controlled government radio this week
replayed a statement Souvanna recently made to a
news correspondent to the effect that he would not
join the government which would be formed after the
"general elections" scheduled for April 1, 1976.
The communists
have also begun to whittle away at the privileges
of King Savang.
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