THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 17 DECEMBER 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014981
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 17, 1975

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
The President's Daily Brief
December 17, 1975
2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 513(
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
.___
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
? 1 ? ? 1-4 .1 I
December 17, 1975
Table of Contents
Angola: The National Union for the Total Libera-
tion of Angola, assisted by South African
troops and forces of the National Front for
the Liberation of Angola, reportedly captured
Cela in the central part of the country last
week. (Page 1)
USSR: The disastrous grain harvest, coupled with
chronic shortcomings in industrial management
and construction, has created the most serious
Soviet economic problems in more than a decade.
(Page 3)
Syria-Israel:
Israel: Tel Aviv's gloomy press forecasts for Is-
rael's economy do not jibe with its own pro-
jections for next year. (Page 7)
Notes: Indonesia - Portuguese Timor; China; Lebanon;
USSR (Pages 8 and 9)
25X1
25X1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
Current Military Activity
BRAllAV I.LE
NSHAt
Cabind
LUAND
Carmona.
Rio D'n"
"t'ax' o
ATLANTIC
OCEAN
Pe6
National Front
(FNLA)
tional Union
FNLA/UNITA controlled
UNITA controlled
Lob it
Benguel
eliglle/a
Mocamedes
SOU H-WEST AFRICA
(Intern tional Territory)
538967 12-75 CIA
STATUTE MILES
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
ANGOLA
The National Union for the Total In-
dependence of Angola, assisted by South
African troops and forces of the National
Front for the Liberation of Angola, report-
edly captured Cela in the central part of
the country late last week. An official
National Union communique issued on Monday
said that the force is now moving toward
Quibala, about 180 miles southeast of Lu-
anda.
At a press conference in Luanda yes-
terday, the Popular Movement for the Lib-
eration of Angola displayed four South
African soldiers captured during the
fighting around Cela. The Movement can
be expected to focus further publicity
on South African involvement in order to
gain support from the Organization of Af-
rican Unity and other African countries.
In eastern Angola, the National Union has con-
solidated its hold on Luso, which was recaptured
from the Popular Movement last week.(
North of Luanda, there have been no recent
significant changes in the military situation.
The drive begun by the Popular Movement two weeks
ago toward the headquarters of the Zairian-backed
National Front apparently remains stalled some 50
miles away, mainly because several river bridges
were destroyed by retreating Front forces.
(continued)
1
25X1
25X1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
0- 4. -- ,_
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
1J I\. i11L r 1 WNL1
On the political front, the OAU's timetable
for its emergency summit on Angola is now uncer-
tain. As originally planned, the summit was to
have been preceded by a foreign ministers' plan-
ning session in Addis Ababa from December 19-21.
OAU member states have now agreed, largely at
the behest of supporters of the Popular Movement,
to hold the two meetings in succession but have
not yet agreed on timing. Unless they resolve
the issue soon, no meetings are likely to be held
until after the first of the year.
On Monday, Sudan became the 14th African coun-
try and 30th worldwide to recognize the Popular
Movement's government.
2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
IP:me dm= lik=s ?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
I kJ's, 1IIL. 1 Ikl_.,011.?/Li L /
USSR
The disastrous grain harvest,
coupled with chronic shortcomings in
industrial management and construc-
tion, has created the most serious
Soviet economic problems in more than
a decade. After slowing markedly in
1974, growth in gross national product
slumped to less than 2 percent this
year.
The outlook for 1976 is bearish. At the heart
of the 1975-76 slowdown is the severe drought that
prevailed during most of this year in the key grain
regions.
Although lacking in detail, announcements from
this month's meeting of the Supreme Soviet reflected
some of the major developments in the troubled econ-
omy:
--Farm output is down more than 10 percent in
1975, the drop highlighted by the depressed
grain harvest of about 137 million tons--80
million tons short of target; other crops gen-
erally were mediocre.
--The failure of meat output to rise in the
fourth quarter despite a sharp increase in the
number of animals slaughtered is a harbinger
of difficulties to come.
--Industry turned in a respectable perform-
ance--up 6.5 percent--with machinery output
leading the way.
--Military spending continued to rise in 1975,
buoyed by procurement of hardware for strategic
weapons systems.
Looking ahead to next year, the Soviets have
projected an implied planned increase in gross na-
tional product of 5.5 percent. If this goal is to
be met, above-average weather conditions will have
to prevail.
(continued)
3
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
v ; -
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
run 111E r.KEJILJEIN 1 ()IN 1_, I
If the rebound of 11 percent slated for farm
output next year is to be achieved, an exceptionally
sharp rise in crop production will be needed to more
than offset depressed livestock output. The short-
fall in feedstuffs from the 1975 crop will mean that
distress slaughtering of livestock will have to con-
tinue into the first half of 1976 and that lower
herd inventories, coupled with decreased slaughter
weights, will bring about a 15- to 20-percent reduc-
tion in the output of livestock products.
The Soviets are planning a 4.5-percent rise in
industrial output for 1976, the lowest plan figure
since World War II. This moderate goal reflects the
following unfavorable factors:
--Shortages of agricultural raw materials for
the food processing and soft goods industries.
--Persistent lags in the completion of new
plants and the delivery of new equipment, a
condition that will hold back production of
both light and heavy industries.
--A slowing of the growth of the industrial
labor force; planners are reluctant to draw
further from the large pool of agricultural
labor for fear of aggravating chronic diffi-
culties in the farm sector.
The investment data indicate a continued con-
cern about old problems rather than a basic restruc-
turing of priorities. Total investment in 1976 is
to grow only 4 percent, with emphasis on (a) the
reduction of the vast amount of capital tied up in
uncompleted investment projects, (b) an increase in
the share of producer durables going for replace-
ment of obsolete equipment, and (c) the maintenance
of the high priority of investment in agriculture
and its supporting industries (40 billion rubles,
or more than one third of all investment).
The serious shortfall in farm output and the
scheduled slowdown in industrial growth will put
consumer welfare programs under increasing strain.
--Increases in consumer goods and services will
be the lowest in the Brezhnev era.
(continued)
4
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
L imI ,
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
run 111E r1kE3111EIN 1 VIN1-1
z--Similarly, the annual boost in wages and sal-
aries will be held to 3 percent to reflect
poorer prospects for supplies of consumer goods.
--Even with consumer incomes rising more slowly,
demand for meat will continue to grow. Although
supplemented by imports, domestic meat supplies
will fall considerably short of the 1975 level.
Restricted food supplies, taken together with
the regime's refusal to raise retail prices,
could result in severe shortages.
5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
PUK f1-Ji l'KE311JLIN 1 (JINI 1? I
SYRIA?ISRAEL
6
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
25X1
J ---"--- L-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
.1-111( 11-I1i FKL)IDLINI I VALI'
ISRAEL
Recent Israeli press releases paint-
ing a dismal picture for Israel's economy
next year probably are geared for the
kickoff of the 1.976 United Jewish Appeal
campaign and US Congressional hearings
on the Israeli aid package.
Israel's own new economic projections forecast
a 6-percent increase in imports as against a 9-per-
cent rise in exports, resulting in about a $3.7-bil-
lion trade deficit. With expected transfers and
$2.3 billion in US aid, this would mean a 1976 bal-
ance-of-payments surplus of $500 million; our ear-
lier estimate was for a $200-million surplus.
Tel Aviv also has released an unrealistic set
of projections for the domestic economy next year:
a $12-billion budget, 40 percent above the current
fiscal year budget; a 25-percent rise in industrial
output; and a 62-percent hike in unemployment to a
rate of 5.2 percent. The Israelis claim that the
new budget in real terms will be 5 percent below
the fiscal 1976 level, implying a highly unlikely
return to the 40-percent annual inflation rate of
1974.
The price outlook for 1976 is closer to the
20- to 25-percent rate expected this year. With
only a small increase expected in the labor force,
substantial new pockets of unemployment seem out
of the question. A similar Israeli unemployment
forecast last year failed to materialize.
7
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
. BANDA SE .1
^
0.
o
PULAU PULAU ALOR
) ) 0 :
,PULAU
LOMBLEN PANIAN,
'S A V LI
S. E A
INDONESIAN
TIMOR
Indonesian-held areas
II 7
MILES
50
!.,,...-- ...1 A
R..V.E -T ?y.
/ ----",,r
.t 'ir''' 5
.... .. ..._
'
OIL
WRTAR STRAIT
Aileu
? PORTUGUESE TIMOR
Bebonaro
t>,
INDONESIA
?
Lesser Sunda Islands
558966 12-75
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
J J J
_
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
VW( 111t Uhl\ 1 UINLI
NOTES
The Indonesians may attack the important road
junction at Bobonaro in Portuguese Timor within
the next few days,
Since Indonesian troops captured the capital
at Dili and the international airport at Baucau,
Jakarta has continued to build up its forces on
the island. Merchant ships and civilian aircraft
have been commissioned to send in additional sup-
plies and reinforcements.
Meanwhile, Fretilin forces are losing ground
and have moved their operations to Aileu, some ten
miles south of Dili. Fretilin troops have avoided
major contact with Indonesian troops.
The fighting in Lebanon has dropped off con-
siderably as the latest cease-fire is slowly being
implemented.
The presence of security forces in the hotel
district has helped quiet the downtown area, al-
though Muslim leftists and Christian Phalangists
could easily retake their respective strongholds.
Scattered fighting throughout the suburbs continues,
but in general the situation has improved enough to
allow Lebanese leaders to focus on political solu-
tions to the dispute.
(continued)
8
25X1
25X1
25X1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
25X1
r?ie Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14: CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
PUK 11-1h FK1i).11JLIN 1 UAL Y
9
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
25X1
-Lj L
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013000010007-5