THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 2 AUGUST 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014865
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: August 2, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
August 2, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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August 2,.1975
Table of .Contents
USSR: Because of additional evidence of continued
bad weather, we now expect the Soviet grain
crop to be below 180 million tons. (Page 1)
(Page 2)
Egypt: President Sadat continues on a two-track
policy, pursuing another interim agreement
with the Israelis while drawing up contingency
plans for war. (Page 5)
Egypt-Libya/
I (Page 8)
Notes: Turkey-US; Yugoslavia; Iceland; Japan-France;
Laos (Pages 9,,10, and 11)
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USSR
Because of additional evidence of
continued bad weather, we now expect the
Soviet grain crop to be below 180 million
tons. If the bad weather continues, the
crop could fall to or even below the 1972
level of 168 million tons.
The drought also has sharply curtailed forage
crops, so the total shortfall in Soviet production
in relation to needs could be in the range of 30-50
million tons. To date, the Soviets have contracted
for about 15 million tons of foreign grain, and it
now seems virtually certain that they will be back
for additional large quantities. Available grain
supplies, however, are nowhere near sufficient to
satisfy all Soviet needs without drastic increases
in world prices.
The USSR will no doubt make up some of the
shortfall from its stocks but also will be forced
to cut its consumption of grain. If production
were as low as in 1972, cuts in consumption would
be large, and there would be major economic impli-
cations. In any event there are bound to be polit-
ical reprecussions in the USSR, including criticism
of Brezhnev's performance in this sector.
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EGYPT-ISRAEL
(continued)
2
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(continued)
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EGYPT
President Sadat continues on a
two-track policy, pursuing another in-
terim agreement with the Israelis while
drawing up contingency plans for war.
Sadat 25X1
ordered the army to continue prepara- 25X1
tions for a Sinai offensive. Sadat 25X1
instructed Minister of War Gamasy to be prepared for
action in mid-September.
The new preparations
call for:
--Egyptian forces to seize and hold along a line
east of the Mitla and Gidi passes.
--The Egyptian air force to launch a large-scale
late afternoon attack followed by a night army
assault.
--The air force is to neutralize Israeli ground
force installations and airfields, and two
surface-to-air missile brigades are to provide
the army's air defense from positions on the
east bank of the Suez Canal.
--A "serious" Israeli attack on the west bank
of the canal would result in a Scud missile
attack on Israeli cities.
Sadat ordered this
latest contingency plan drawn up prior to the deci-
sion to renew the UN Emergency Force mandate in the
Sinai.
(continued)
5
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The mid-September target date
was set before Sadat announced his
agreement to extend the UN force mandate until Oc-
tober and before the most recent exchanges of Israeli
and Egyptian proposals for a new interim agreement
in the Sinai. Despite his frustration over what he
regards as Israeli stalling, Sadat probably recog-
nizes that a final resolution of the outstanding
points of disagreement could require negotiations
to continue into September.
If there is no substantial progress by then,
Sadat is likely to have little hope left for an
interim agreement. Even the Israelis expect that
the basics of an agreement to be completed by the
end of August.
If negotiations break down again, Sadat may
decide to try to press his case through the UN and
the Geneva forum. He has previously indicated that
he would pursue this course.
It is equally possible he may conclude that,
further
diplomatic pressure by Egypt would bring little
return. The problem lies in pinpointing the pre-
cise time at which Sadat's patience finally runs
out and when he decides to take the military road
to achieve his goals.
6
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EGYPT?LIBYA
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NOTES
Turkey
During the past several days, some senior
Yugoslav military officers have sought out our am-
baesador to request closer military relations, in-
cluding a new weapons deal.
One officer'said the regime's occasional as-
sertions that the West: posed a threat to Yugoslavia
were no more, than a political maneuver, Some of
have indicated that they are uneasy about their
countrY's heavy dependence on Moscow fOr. modern arms.
(continued)
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Iceland has revived its old tactic of linking
fisheries and trade issues to its membership in NATO
and the US-manned NATO base at Keflavik.
Prime Minister Halgrimmsson and an important
Icelandic party leader have both warned the US em-
bassy in Reykjavik that, unless West Germany with-
draws its veto of EC tariff concessions for Icelandic
fish products and unless West Germany and the UK
agree to stop fishing within 50 miles of Iceland's
shores, Reykjavik may retaliate against the base
and reconsider its membership. Iceland's economy
is being hurt by the West German veto, and fishing
is an emotional issue in Iceland. Icelandic leaders
will be under increasing pressure to use all the
weapons in their armory in this dispute.
Japan is cool to France's proposal for a five-
nation economic summits but Prime Minister Miki
probably will go along with the proposal if you
agree to it.
/At recent meetings of the International
Monetary Fund, the French have been holding out for
a return to fixed exchange rates, and the West Ger-
mans may be moving toward the French position.
(continued)
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The Laotian communists may be preparina for a
new round of demonstrations in Vientiane
communist cadre are laying the ground-
work for demonstrations to oust municipal author-
ities, but not to affect the national government.
The communists may wish to secure a firmer grip on
Vientiane's civil administration and rekindle pop-
ular enthusiasm for the revolution.
11
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