THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 13 APRIL 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993796
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: April 13, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
13 April 1973
45
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Exempt from general
declassification scheduk of ED. 11652
exemption categoly 5B(11.(2).13)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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EYES ONLY FOR THE PRESIDENT
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
iP
?. SEUET
April 13, 1973
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
13 April 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
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North Vietnam\
(Page 1)
2)
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A high-ranking victim of the Cultural Revolution
has-been partially reinstated in China. (Page
The Soviets are beginning to publicize
ing nuclear arsenal. (Page 4)
China's
grow-
The USSR is building a second over-the-horizon radar
for use in early warning of US missile launches.
(Page 5)
Italy wants US permission to export armored person-
nel carriers to Libya. (Page 7)
Beirut is tense but quiet after yesterday's funerals
of fedayeen leaders killed in the Israeli raids.
(Page 8)
President Nixon's trade bill has received favorable
comment abroad. (Page 9)
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INDOCHINA
Hanoi apparently is bringing home two more
infantry divisions from South Vietnam. The 304th
Division has not been in radio contact with the
Communists' major military authority in northern
South Vietnam since early April, suggesting that
a move is under way. Similarly, the 312th Division
has been out of contact since late March, when its
headquarters was located in southern North Vietnam.
The 308th Division left Quang Tri Prov-
ince earlier this year. All three divi-
sions saw heavy combat and may be under-
going rest and refitting. There are
still three North Vietnamese divisions
in Quang Tri.
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CHINA
Teng Hsiao-ping, the second highest ranking
party official purged during the Cultural Revolution,
reappeared at ,a banquet given by Premier Chou En-lai
on April 12. The official Chinese news agency listed
him with two vice-premiers in the government and ac-
cording to the Japanese news agency he was introduced
at the banquet as a deputy premier.
Teng had been a vice-premier and has prob-
ably been reinstated in his government
post. Peking appears to be skirting the
more controversial issue of whether to re-
turn Teng to an important party position.
Teng formerly was secretary-general of the
party and sixth among the party's top lead-
ers until his fall in December 1966. An-
other former vice-premier who reappeared
last December with his government title
has not been seen since.
Teng's status has apparently been under
discussion for several years
With the leadership unable to agree on a
number of major appointments, the return
of former high-ranking officials may be
an attempt by moderates such as Chou En-
Zai to push them as candidates. Although
Chou has differed with some of these vet-
eran officials in the past, they are
clearly more acceptable to him than the
more radical newcomers who came to prom-
inence during the Cultural Revolution.
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CHINA
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USSR-CHINA
Official speakers at public lectures on foreign
affairs in Leningrad have been unusually specific
during recent months with respect to China's growing
nuclear arsenal. In January, one such lecturer said
that China had acquired a second strike capability
by building missile silos into rock far from the bor-
der. He implied that the possibility of removing
the Chinese missile threat by a "surgical strike"
no longer exists. Early last month another speaker
announced that the Chinese can deliver up to 100 nu-
clear warheads deep in the Soviet Union. Last week,
another predicted that by 1975 China will have 40
to 50 missiles and implied that at least some would
have a range of 3,100 to 3,700 miles, covering nearly
all the USSR.
The tone of these lectures is matter-of-
fact and leaves no impression that hostil-
ities are imminent, or even likely. The
audience, nevertheless, will get the mes-
sage that caution is now necessary in the
USSR's relations with China.
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Soviet Over-the-Horizon
Detection Radars
?At Nikolayev
Transmitter
Kiev .Moscow
?Nikolayev
Receiver
4.
Antenna
c.
?At Kiev
Transmitter
Receiver
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USSR
Construction near Kiev
has progressed far enough
that it can be tentatively identified as an over-
the-horizon radar.
This is the USSR's second such radar,
and should take three more years to com-
plete. It covers the Norwegian Sea and
the central US. It probably is intended
to track aircraft and provide early
warning of US SLBM or ICBM launches.
Early warning of US ICBM launches would
be difficult, however, because of sig-
nal interference prevalent in the north-
ern regions.
Over-the-horizon systems, while not as
reliable as conventional Zine-of-sight
radars, can transmit signals over far
greater distances along the curvature
of the earth by using the ionosphere as
a reflective surface. Although the
capabilities of the Soviet system are
not yet known, US radars of this type
can detect ballistic missile firings
at ranges in excess of 2,000 miles and
can track aircraft at lesser distances.
The Soviets have been experimeTting with
such radars for several years and are
in the last stages of construction of
their first one near Nikolayev. The
Nikolayev system is aimed toward China
and probably will be used to detect
Chinese missile launches. The West has
been using over-the-horizon systems
for intelligence and early warning pur-
poses for more than a decade.
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LIBYA-EGYPT
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LIBYA-ITALY
Rome has requested Washington's permission to
export 150 M-113 armored personnel carriers to Libya.
This is the second Libyan order of 150
APCs, which are manufactured in Italy
under US license. Permission to export
the first. group was granted last year,
and most of them have already been de-
livered. That agreement also included
self-propelled artillery, a large number
of trucks, and other equipment.
The USSR and Czechoslovakia, Libya's pri-
mary sources of ground force equipment up
to now, have supplied Libya with almost
300 medium tanks, 300 APCs, and about 200
artillery pieces since 1970. President
Qadhafi's anti-Communist bent, however,
has Zed him to seek other sources. No
negotiations with either Moscow or Prague
for additional equipment have been noted
and deliveries under previous agreements
are almost complete.
Tripoli's relations with Rome, on the
other hand, appear to be warming. Rome
recently received US approval to begin
deliveries to Libya of 27 Boeing and
Augusta Bell helicopters. An Italian
firm has contracted to enlarge and im-
prove an airfield in Libya/
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LEBANON
Tumultuous crowds in Beirut yesterday accom-
panied the funeral corteges of fedayeen leaders
slain by Israeli raiders. Ugly mobs roamed the
city, chanting slogans against the US, Israel, and
their own government. Security forces, however,
kept demonstrators away from the US Embassy. By
nightfall, Beirut was quiet but tense.
President Franjiyah has not yet accepted the
resignation proferred by Prime Minister Salam. He
is still consulting with political leaders about
the formation of a new government.
Under pressure from the populace and other
Arab states, Lebanon reversed itself and lodged a
complaint with the UN Security Council late yester-
day afternoon. The discussion in the council con-
tinues today. The Lebanese claim they seek a reso-
lution condemning "all parties to terrorism," but
such wording might not have much support from other
Arabs. The US Mission at the UN suspects that the
Egyptians and the Soviets want to maneuver the US
into vetoing whatever resolution is finally adopted.
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NOTES
World Trade: President Nixon's trade bill
has received generally favorable comment abroad.
Although some parts of the legislation were criti-
cized because of a "strong protectionist coloring,"
the provisions for liberalizing trade were welcomed.
Europeans are generally pleased that a start has
been made toward a US negotiating mandate for multi-
lateral bargaining scheduled to begin in September.
Considerable uncertainty persists, however, about
how the proposals may be changed by the Congress
as well as how the administration may ultimately
use its broad powers.
EC: The council of Agricultural Ministers
was unable to reach a decision on the EC Commis-
sion's farm price recommendations for the 1973/74
marketing year at a meeting early this week. The
Commission has proposed that prices be raised by
modest.amounts that would vary from country to
country. The proposal for a small price increase
was made with a view toward moving away from high
suppor-Lprices to which the US has long objected.
The proposal would also re-establish common prices
and eliminate the compensatory taxes and subsidies
prompted by currency shifts among EC countries
during the past two years.
Laos: North Vietnamese units supported by
at least two tanks continued heavy artillery at-
tacks on government units near Tha Viang southeast
of the Plaine des Jarres yesterday. Some govern-
ment units have begun to pull back from forward
positions. Heavy ground fire is hampering efforts
to evacuate government casualties. Morale is poor
among government troops and,a general withdrawal
from the Tha Viang area could come soon. Most c
government leaders are in the royal capital of
Luang Prabang for the celebration of the Lao new
year, and there has been no official comment on
the situation at Tha Viang.
(continued)
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USSR-US: Occidental Petroleum yesterday
signed an $8-billion fertilizer exchange contract
with the USSR--the largest Soviet-American trade
deal to date. Under the terms of the 20-year con-
tract, Occidental will provide superphosphate fer-
tilizer to the USSR in return for Soviet urea
and potash. Occidental will also build four am-
monia-urea plants in the USSR taking products of
the plants in payment. The larger supply of phos-
phate fertilizer, will help increase crop yields
in the USSR, improve grain quality, and accelerate
the ripening of grain.
Italy: After repeated defeats of government-
sponsored legislation, Prime Minister Andreotti
has called for and won three votes of confidence.
His margin was slim, but the government parties
held together, apparently with Andreotti's visit
to Washington next.week.in the back of their minds.
Moreover, Italian political leaders Would like
to postpone any changes until June, so that they
can better assess the-political climate and the
chances of,forming-a new. government.
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