THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 15 NOVEMBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993986
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 15, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
15 November 1973
45
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(
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 513(11,121,M
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
15 November 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Implementation of four items of six-point cease-fire
set to begin today. Israel may be preparing to test
blockade of the Bab al Mandab. Only minor cease-fire
violations on both fronts yesterday, as both sides
improve fortifications. Arab summit due in Algiers
later this month. Dayan says Israel did not think
there would be war until morning of October 6. EC
political directors work on joint demarche to the
Arabs. (Page 1)
Assessment of performance of US and Soviet advanced
weapons used in the war. (Page 4)
Disputes among top Chinese leaders have intensified.
(Page 5)
Khmer Communists once again tightening hold over
Phnom Penh's overland supply lines. (Page 6)
Notes on USSR-China, South Korea, West
Germany - Czechoslovakia, West German economic per-
formance, and Uganda-USSR appear on Pages 7 and 8.
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Egyptian Front
Bird,
JifialaU
'1\lsraeli/antiAankstrench
i$ Wadi al
? Jandali
Adabiya"
EGYPT
Al 6fai
Ayn Sukhnah/
A
;Ras; i r
70/7
/
0 ./. 4 _ ./144
7 ?
0 Kilometers 20
. 0 Statute miles
0 Nautical Miles
20
20
32
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ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
? Egyptian and Israeli representatives agreed yes-
terday in a meeting at Kilometer 101 that implementa-
tion of four items of the six-point cease-fire accord
of November 11 would get under way today.
The exchange of prisoners of war started this
morning under the supervision of the International
Red Cross, as planes began making direct flights be-
tween Egypt and Israel repatriating the prisoners of
war. The exchange is to be completed within eight
days.
The two sides also agreed that Israel would turn
over the checkpoints at Kilometers 101 and 119 to
United Nations Forces this morning. This element
of the agreement could still cause trouble, however.
Tel Aviv interprets the arrangement as providing for
Israeli control of the Cairo-Suez road between the
two checkpoints; a UN press spokesman in Cairo said
the Israelis should now "leave the task of controlling
the road to the UN." The spokesman said it would be
up to the local UN commander to decide whether addi-
tional UN checkpoints should be set up on the road.
The Israelis established three new checkpoints along
the road between Kilometers 101 and 119 Tuesday night.
The Egyptian-Israeli accord also provides for
the supply of nonmilitary goods to the Egyptian Third
Army on the east bank of the canal, and the daily
provisioning of food and water to Suez city. The
evacuation of the wounded from the Third Army and
Suez city is to begin Friday. The UN will provide
drivers for the resupply of Suez, and Israeli represent-
atives will be permitted to examine the goods. Israel
also agreed not to impede the movement of nonmilitary
material to the Third Army.
The Israeli press on November 14 said that Tel
Aviv may be preparing in the near future to test the
blockade of the Bab al Mandab, the southern entrance
to the Red Sea. Eleven Israeli ships from the Far
East are said to be en route to Elat, where another
13 ships are reportedly ready to sail. Yesterday,
an
that although the timing had not been set
for any test, "everyone" agreed there must be one.
With the release of Israeli POWs--Tel Aviv's highest
priority demand--apparently resolved by the exchange
that began today, the Israelis may now feel in a
better position to devote more attention to the sit-
uation in the Bab al Mandab.
(continued)
1
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Syrian Front
Vehicle concentration area
emascus I
ti-tan International
rtification
line
10 20
Kilometers
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Minor cease-fire violations were reported on both
fronts yesterday.
There were several exchanges of fire, including
artillery, on the Syrian front west of Sasa yesterday.
Radio Jerusalem charged Damascus with violations of
the cease-fire agreement in this area. The Syrians
apparently pushed a salient into Israeli lines west
of Sasa last week, and Israel has been making attempts
to reduce it. There were no reports of aircraft ac-
tivity over the Syrian front yesterday.
(continued)
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An Arab summit conference will be held in Al-
giers, according to an Arab League spokesman. The
date of the meeting is still uncertain, with the
press mentioning both November 26 and 28. Prior
to the meeting of the heads of state, the foreign
ministers will gather in Algiers or Cairo on Novem-
ber 24. According to Al Ahram, the foreign minis-
ters will prepare an agenda for the summit session,
as well as review the war effort, use of oil, rela-
tions with other countries based on their attitude
toward the Arab cause during the conflict and Arab
economic activities and propaganda.
Reacting to changes in the Knesset and the
press about Tel Aviv's lack of preparedness in the
face of the Egyptian-Syrian attack, Defense Minister
Dayan told army officers on the Syrian front last
night that "until the morning of the Day of Atone-
ment, I did not think there would be war, nor was
anyone else of this opinion." Dayan said that when
on
the morning of October 6 Indications that
war was in the offing, Israel began to call up its
reserves.
The political directors of the EC countries
have been working on a proposed joint demarche to
the Arabs. According to a senior West German offi-
cial, the effort is the result of the increasing
irritation of some of the EC member states with
Arab behavior. The demarche is intended as a fol-
low-up to the EC's Middle East declaration of Novem-
ber 6 and will probably ask for clarification of
"contradictions" in Arab policies toward the Euro-
peans. Drafting is said to have been extremely dif-
ficult. Presumably Paris and London are still seek-
ing to maintain a relatively friendly tone while
some other governments may be asking why the declara-
tion of November 6 has not resulted in the easing
of the Arab oil squeeze.
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US and Soviet Weapons Systems in the Middle East
I -7
'03.:4111v,/,
I .4
Sagger anti-tank missile
ZSU-23-4 self-propelled anti-aircraft gun
TOW anti-tank missile
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Maverick air-to-surface missile
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ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
Both US and Soviet weapons systems used by Is-
rael and the Arab states during last month's fight-
ing were highly effective. This was particularly
true of US systems supplied to Tel Aviv after the
war broke out. Similarly', Soviet weapons--partic-
ularly mobile anti-tank and surface-to-air missiles--
took a heavy toll of Israeli forces.
US missiles--probably with char-
acteristics similar to the TOW anti-tank missile and
the Maverick air-to-surface missile--caused "serious
devastation" to Egyptian armor and missile batteries.
? The impressive performance of Soviet weapons
in Arab hands has given Tel Aviv pause. Mobile
anti-tank missiles and shoulder-fired anti-tank
rockets were particularly effective against Israeli
armor.
many Israeli tanks sustained multiple hits
from Soviet-supplied Sagger anti-tank missiles and
anti-tank rockets.
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with surface-to-air missile systems, particularly
the mobile SA-6s and SA-7s. Many Israeli planes
were brought down by these two systems as well as
by fire from conventional anti-aircraft artillery--
especially the self-propelled ZSU-23-4--encountered
while trying to avoid the SAMs.
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CHINA
A new political campaign is gathering momentum
which could have implications for one or more of
China's leaders. The ancient philosopher Confucius
is being severely criticized for a number of crimes
that clearly have current relevance, and it seems
likely that the drive is intended to discredit and
possibly purge someone in the present leadership.
The party's theoretical journal also seemed to lay
the groundwork for a new political campaign this
month when it called on party members to unite for
a common objective and to speak out against those
who still bear grudges. This may be a reference to
unbending radicals such as Mao's wife, Chiang Ching.
Controversy meanwhile has developed over high-
level government appointments prior to the National
People's Congress, which is charged with ratifying
the appointments.
disputes
could conceivably force a postponement of the Con-
gress apparently slated for later this month.
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Phnom Penh
2
Entrenche
enemy force
Communists \
hold
4 miles 0
PHNOM PEN
? \
Prey Veng
Ml ES
a
eak Luting N,
? Governmen
makes slight gains
Statute 1\/,liles
_
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CAMBODIA
The Khmer Communists are once again tightening
their hold over Phnom Penh's overland supply lines.
Early this week they struck at government outposts
along Route 4 west of Kompong Speu and now control a
four-mile section of the highway there. The insur-
gents also are adding to the force holding an 11-mile
stretch of Route 5 northwest of the capital, and will
try to expand their control southward.
South of Phnom Penh, government forces recently
,regained some territory along Route 2 and the Prek
Thnaot River, where Communist units have apparently
withdrawn temporarily. On the city's northwestern
front, government units have been unable to dislodge
well-entrenched rebels within ten miles of Phnom Penh's
airport. Ten miles northeast of the capital, approxi-
.mately 1,300 Cambodian Army troops are involved in a
fresh drive to relieve Vihear Suor, an isolated mar-
ket town.
Radio messages between Communist units on the
east bank of the Mekong River contain presistent com-
plaints about ammunition shortages. A message last
week showed that regional insurgent leaders were
planning to meet with "the Vietnamese" and would
"seek additional equipment from them." Despite the
ammunition problem, a message of November 13 called
on Communist units southeast of Phnom Penh to launch
attacks against government positions along Route 1
in early December.
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New Divisional Equipment at Birobidzhan
Birobidzhan
Baklashi ?
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NTES
USSR-China: Combat equipment, apparently for
a new Soviet motorized rifle division, has shown up
in Birobidzhan on the far
eastern border with China. The equipment began ar-
riving early this year, but thus far only one-fifth
of the vehicles and equipment a division would need
is in place. It is not yet clear whether the new
division will become a fully equipped, active unit,
or will remain in its current role--primarily stor-
age--to be fleshed out in the event of increased
tension. The Soviets last sent a new division to
their frontier with China in early 1972.
South Korea: The student demonstrations against
the Pak regime, which began in early October, have
spread to all major universities and a number of
other schools. While most of the demonstrations
have been small scale and confined to the campuses,
they reveal a degree of organization, activism and
student unrest that have not been evident during
the past two years. The government apparently in-
tends to ride out the protests without using undue
force and is confident that it can control the situ-
ation. The winter vacation in early December pro-
vides a convenient cooling off period, and the gov-
ernment may dismiss the students early. However,
student agitation may be rekindled when classes re-
sume in the spring.
(continued)
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West Germany - Czechoslovakia: The optimism
Bonn was expressing last week that signature of a
"reconciliation" treaty with Czechoslovakia and
the establishment of diplomatic relations were im-
minent has evaporated. After reportedly agreeing
to portions of a West German compromise for han-
dling the legal affairs of West Berlin institutions,
'Prague informed Bonn that the plan was unacceptable
because it called for an exchange of letters giving
specific rather than tacit consent as Foreign Min-
ister Scheel had arranged in Moscow. The Czechs
have suggested postponing the issue and going ahead
with the establishment of diplomatic ties, but Bonn
has rejected this. The Germans fear they might
lose leverage they need to secure equal treatment
for West Germany and West Berlin in legal matters.
West Germany: Bonn registered a $1.6 billion
trade surplus in September, raising the cumulative
surplus for the first nine months to $8.7 billion.
This is more than double the level for the compara-
ble period of 1972. Although trade declined in
August as a result of seasonal factors, it rebounded
in September with exports up 63 percent and imports
40 percent. Exports probably will continue at high
levels in the remaining months of the year, contrib-
uting to an annual trade surplus likely to reach a
record level of at least $12 billion. A surplus of
$250 million in trade with the US accounted for
one-sixth of West Germany's total surplus in Septem-
ber. The nine-month surplus with the US reached
nearly $1 billion and is likely to approach $1.5
billion for the entire year.
Uganda: A Soviet ship unloaded ten T-34 medium
tanks, six armored personnel carriers, and ammuni-
tion in Kenya for Uganda between November 3 and 8.
This is the first Soviet military aid in five years.
The delivery may be part of a $10 million agreement
concluded in 1965; this deal was suspended when re-
lations deteriorated and Soviet military technicians
were withdrawn in February 1971.
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Top Secret
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