THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 5 FEBRUARY 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007934
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: February 5, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
February 5, 1975
5
o cret 25X1
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( 1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
r w
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
February 5, 1975
Table of Contents
South Vietnam: The communists are preparing for
the next phase of their dry-season campaign.
(Page 1)
Turkey: Turks pass a warning on US and NATO ties;
may believe that the aid halt has removed im-
pediments to further military advances on
Cyprus. (Page 2)
Ethiopia: The army appears to have suffered set-
backs from rebels around Asmara. (Page 3)
Portugal: There is much jockeying for power in
Lisbon, and fresh talk of a coup. (Page 4)
Iraq-France: Iraq may be about to purchase Mirage
jet fighters from France. (Page 5)
Notes: USSR-Israel; OPEC (Page 6)
Annex:
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Demilitarized Zone
Gulf of
Thailand
104
557258 2-75
19.6
7d4,
Capital Special Zone
98
South
China
cs
Sea
SOUTH VIETNAM
190
MILES
10-
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SOUTH VIETNAM
The communists are preparing for the
next phase of their dry-season campaign,
which again will probably involve action
by both main and local forces. Some com-
munist units have been directed to cele-
brate early for Tet--the three-day lunar
new year holdiay that begins on February
11--in order to be prepared for renewed
activity.
The South Vietnamese government is particularly
concerned about Tay Ninh city. The communist 9th
Division, which has not been involved in recent
fighting, reportedly is preparing to attack that
city. Communist propagandists during the past few
weeks have warned civilians in several important
urban areas--including Tay Ninh--that heavy attacks
will come during ?the Tet holidays. At least one
provincial official, however, believes that such
talk is a calculated propaganda tactic.
Communist sapper units are reported to be com-
pleting preparations for sabotage and terrorism in
Saigon. Members of these units are stockpiling
supplies and munitions, identifying targets, and
improving access routes into ?and out of the capital
city.
The central highlands are another area of pos-
sibly heavy combat, especially around the capitals
of the provinces bordering Cambodia. In addition
to the recent movement of the North Vietnamese 968th
Division from southern Laos into the highlands,
there have been reports that the 320th Division is
moving farther south to attack targets in Darlac
and Quang Duc provinces.
Weather conditions will offer no obstacle to
either side in coming weeks. Good weather for
fighting will continue until at least May from the
highland provinces to the southern delta. In the
northern coastal areas, the heavy monsoon rains
will begin tapering off soon and the weather there
will begin to improve in the next month or so.
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end,
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TURKEY
The Turkish government has warned that
it will review its NATO ties and its mutual
defense agreements with the US as a result
of the cutoff of US military assistance.
The aid halt reportedly also has removed
the last impediment to a Turkish military
move to modify the cease-fire Zine on
Cyprus.
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tween February 6 and 8 to clear
national guard out of at least
tions, two near Nicosia airport
ers west of Nicosia.
the
five
and
Greek
posi-
oth-
The Turks, during the heavy firing last week-
stationed additional forces around the airport,
has decided to allow Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf
Denktash to declare an independent state suggests
that the Turks may abandon negotiations and seal
off half of the island. We have no evidence from
Ankara, however, that the Turks are about to launch
any new military operations on Cyprus.
The Turks have lashed out at the US Congress
and indicated that some type of retaliation for the
aid halt will occur. After holding an emergency
meeting of his national security council last night,
Prime Minister Irmak released a statement accusing
the US of an "unlawful act." Irmak said there will
be changes in Turkey's contribution to NATO, but he
had said before the meeting that Turkey would not
withdraw from the organization. There will likely
be a surge of anti-Americanism in Turkey that could
produce demonstrations threatening US property and
personnel.
2
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ETHIOPIA
The Ethiopian army appears to have
suffered setbacks in its attempt to dis-
lodge insurgents from the outlying areas
of Asmara. Some army units reportedly
are withdrawing into the city. Asmara
was quiet yesterday, but the police
directed residents to stay off the
streets, apparently in anticipation of
more fighting.
Government reinforcements are having difficulty
reaching Asmara because rebels have established
strongpoints along roads leading to the city. The
government will probably airlift additional rein-
forcements from Addis Ababa.
The Eritrean conflict is becoming a test of
the ruling military council's leadership. A seri-
ous defeat would almost certainly trigger a mili-
tary revolt against the council. The transfer of
large numbers of troops from Addis Ababa to Eritrea
might encourage some opponents of the council to
stage a coup, regardless of the military situation.
3
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
PORTUGAL
A series of political meetings is
under way in Portugal this week as left-
ists and moderates each seek ways to in-
crease their power relative to the other.
The Armed Forces Movement's 20-man Superior
Council has been in session for the past few days
working on an agreement fixing the ground rules for
the election campaign, now due to begin on March 4.
The Superior Council's decisions will be presented
for approval to the 200-member General Assembly of
the Armed Forces, which will meet on Thursday.
The Assembly has announced that it is consider-
ing "revolutionary" legislation:
--Establishment of the Armed Forces Movement
as a permanent governmental institution.
--Creation of a role for the Movement in the
constituent assembly.
--Adoption of the long-awaited economic plan.
Any one of these issues could provoke bitter debate
and raise tensions to the high pitch that was
reached during the recent labor law dispute.
A potentially dangerous effort to alter the
power structure may be taking place outside the
principal ruling bodies. US embassy sources report
that a draft proposal for amending the constitution
has been submitted to the 21-member Council of
State, which alone is empowered to change the con-
stitution. The proposal would vastly increase the
powers of the original seven-man junta made up of
senior military officers. The draft reportedly was
submitted by the Movement's predominantly leftist
Coordinating Committee.
4
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IRAQ-FRANCE
Iraq may be about to purchase Mirage
jet fighters from France. This would end
the long-standing Soviet role as the sole
supplier of advanced jet fighters to Iraq.
The Mirage sale proposal reportedly was made
during French Prime Minister Chirac's visit to Bagh-
dad in early December. Baghdad originally wanted
to buy 50 Mirages, but may now be interested in
more.
Iraq signed a contract with France in 1968 to
buy Mirages, but subsequently canceled the deal un-
der pressure from the USSR. Baghdad certainly knows
that Moscow will be irritated about a Mirage agree-
ment, and that such an agreement could jeopardize
the recently patched up Soviet-Iraqi military sup-
ply relationship. The Iraqis, however, have not
been entirely satisfied over the past few months
with the timeliness of Soviet deliveries of ammuni-
tion and ground-forces equipment.
Iraq, aware that the USSR cut off deliveries
of equipment and spare parts to Egypt last April,
has been trying over the past year to diversify
its sources of arms supply. Since last spring,
Iraq has purchased at least $175 million worth of
military equipment from France, including AMX-13
light tanks, Panhard armored cars, and Alouette
and Super Frelon helicopters.
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NOTES
The monthly rate of Soviet emigration to Is-
rael sank to a two-year low of 1,150 last month,
while emigration to the US reached a record high
of 120.
About 2,400 emigrated to Israel in January
1974. Given the short time periods involved, how-
ever, these figures do not necessarily reflect a
Soviet policy shift. The Netherlands embassy,
which represents Israeli interests in Moscow, be-
lieves that many would-be emigrants are simply
postponing a final decision on departure. One
reason may be that Moscow's campaign to play up
the difficulties of life in Israel is having some
effect. The Soviets may also be attempting to
discourage prospective emigrants by tightening
exit requirements. The emigration issue is the
subject of high-level attention in Moscow.
Some oil-exporting countries, in an effort to
diversify their investments and blunt criticism by
the developing nations, are turning to tripartite
investment.
These ventures bring together surplus petro-
dollars and Western technology in third countries.
For the near future, tripartite investment is likely
to be concentrated in a handful of developing coun-
tries--mainly Arab states--and the amount to be
invested will be relatively small. Kuwait, Saudi
Arabia, and Iran have shown interest in tripartite
ventures, with Kuwait the most active of the three.
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POLAND
Moscow.
UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
Black Sea
/NOR JH
Caspian cos
Seo Sea
Sea
of
Japan
Yellow
Sea
KOREA
CYPRUS
LEE
ISR.AE
Culla Vie
Suez
EGYPT
Strait
Gebel
CHINA
East
China
Sea
KUW At.
Persian
Gulf
PAKISTA
BHUTAN
MAN
ONG KONG
(U.K.)
SUDAN
Red
Sea
OR
SAUDI ARABIA
.VSocotra
Arabian Sea
Bay of Bengal
Svi?ErNAmH South. pC
PHILIPPNES p
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s Serail of
? Malacca
ETHIOPIA
Sea
MALDIVE ISLANDS
SRI LANKA
(CEYLON)
Mogadiscio
KENYA
MALAYSIA
Singapore
BRUNEI
(U.K.)
TANZANIA
LL Zanzibar
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Mozambique
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(U.K.) REP.
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REUNION'
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AyRITIUS
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AUSTRALIA
1000
? Nautical t.11es
557266 2-75
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Top Secret
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