THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW 29-30 JANUARY 1964

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005996806
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: January 31, 1964

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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
29 - 31 JANUARY 1964
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31 January 1964
Cyprus: As the haggling about a peacekeeping
force drags on, the situation on the island has lost
none of its tenseness.
The Cypriots themselves continue to prepare for
the worst, especially the extremist elements with
which both sides are richly endowed.
Both Greek and Turk Cypriots have been at the
ready for many weeks now. Tempers have been honed
to a fine edge.
Athens and Ankara are keeping a watchful eye
on all this and are prepared to intervene at a
moment's notice.
The armed forces of the two countries have
been brought to a high state of preparedness.
Turkish ground forces
on Wednesday were observed moving to dockside at the
Turkish base nearest Cyprus.
The Greek armed forces have moved troops and
naval vessels into advanced positions in Crete.
We believe, however, that Ankara and Athens
appreciate the consequences of a move on their part
And welnld h?' m^Q+ r,.luctant to move.
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2, USSR-Cyprus: After lying low for several weekss
the Soviets now seem to be trying their Sunday best
?to muddy the Cyprus issue.
They have responded to Makarios' pleas for sup-
port against Turkish intervention with a public
statement denouncing any foreign intervention.
3. South Vietnam: General Khanh is moving to
c9nsorrare?Hig--66ntrol and minimize the confusion
following the Thursday coup.
Ne is considering a war cabinet of five posts
with ultimate power firmly in. his own hands. For
the present he will try to avoid a wholesale re-
shuffle at the provincial and corps level.
(Cont 'd)
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Khanh, a forceful, highly intelligent and
pro-American officer, has, we think, a chance
of building a strong personal power position.
His move was apparently based on a con-
viction that the corps commanders of which he
was one were being left out in the cold. Also,
he was trying to checkmate certain lead-
ing generals who were thought to be overly re-
ceptive to French hints about a neutralized South
Vietnam.
These feelings were, it seems, shared by
other field commanders, all of whom supported
Khanb.
scheme afoot to free those arrested.
Khanh has promised there will be only minimal
interruption of the war effort against the Communists.
Up to now the Viet Cong have not moved to exploit
the confusion, but it took a week last time for their
reaction to take shape. They have, however, declared
a week-long cease-fire to mark Lunar New Year's (Feb. 11).
4. France-China: The China recognition tangle Xs
stuck on dead center.
De Gaulle declined to be led into the thicket
at his month's-end press conference. He, for one,
seems resigned to having the matter simmer along
this way for some time in the hope that something
may turn up.
(Cont'd)
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The Chinese Nationalists are sitting tight
in Paris, but they are not feeling at all easy
about it. There is a strong feeling in official
Taipei that a break with the "perfidious and
deceptive" French will be necessary.
As matters now stand no other country has
followed the De Gaulle lead. Those tempted are
waiting in the wings to see how the Paris-Taipei-
Peiping triangle works itself out,
5. Indonesia-Malaysia: The week-old cease-fires
though generally successful, has been punctuated
by several incidents of gunplay between British
security forces and Indonesian forces)
(Cont d)
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Peacemakers on all sides are concerned that
further encounters in the jungles will cast a
pall over the up-coming Maphilindo conference in
Bangkok. U Thant is still trying to get Indonesian
concurrence for a UN team to keep an eye on the
cease-fire.
It now looks as if these talks will be held
either just before or just after Macapagal's 8-13
February visit to Phnom Penh,
The Indonesians will go to the conference
table confident that their policy toward Malaysia
?has been eminently successful.
6. East Africa: British troops have the security
situation effectively in hand in Tanganyika, Uganda,,
and Kenya, but matters in Zanzibar are in a highly
volatile state.
The marriage of convenience between pro-Com-
munists there and legitimate African nationalists
is inherently unstable, and there is every likli-
hood the Communists will come to dominate the sit-
uation, if, indeed, they do not do so already.
(Cont 'd)
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Zanzibar could thus turn into a most useful
Communist base from which to fund, arm, anddirect
the sort of thing that happened in Zanzibar any-
where from the Horn to the Cape.
The possibility of subversion from Zanzibar
worries the leaders of the three mainland states.
They all suspect that the Chinese Communists and
the Cubans had a hand in their own troubles.
Accordingly, they have now cancelled out on
the touring Chou En-lai and have taken steps to
curtail the activities of Chinese and Cuban dip-
lomats.
7. USSR-US: The Soviets are letting it be known
that they foresee little forward movement in their
relations with the US, at least until after the
elections..
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S. Panama: Panama seems determined to press its
? charges of US aggression despite a feeling by some
OAS members that the Chiari government has handled
the matter badly and has pushed things with the US
too far.
In Panama, pressure groups which have forming
all around Chiari to make sure he holds fast have
been encouraged by their success to date. Activists
are redoubling their efforts to keep the public in
a high state of agitation.
The tempo of violence and sabotage may quicken
again as the normally festive pre-Lenten season
this year is turned into an occasion for whipping
up nationalist, anti-US fervor.
9. Bol*via: The party convention finished its
work last Tuesdayby expelling Vice President Lechin.
The party's extreme left wing will probably now
hold a rump convention and nominate Lechin for Presi-
dent.
(Cont'd)-
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Lechin, however, may despar of getting rid of
Paz at the polls and organize a coup to overthrow
him.
10. Ecuador: Student disturbances came a day later
than we expected and were not very effective against
strong police counter-measures. All the elements
for continued instability are, however, still very
much present.
12. Laos: The Pathet Lao, with a sprinkling of
North Vietnamese, have gained control over the
'Na Kay area in south-central Laos. As is usually
the case, the rightist and neutralist side just
melted away in the face of Communist pressure.
13. Cambodia: Ambassador Sprouse concludes that
SihanoukTs recent swing through Southeast Asia will
feed his already notable vanity and make him and
his anti-American proclivities even more difficult
to deal with in the future.
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