THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW 13-15 MAY 1964

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005959179
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: May 15, 1964

--- Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2015/07/23 : CIA-RDP79T00936A002600240001-2
THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
13 ? 15 MAY 1964
-110P?SECREL
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1. Cyprus:
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2. Panama:
the outcome of the Panamanian
election is still up in the air.
(Cont d)
_ T. Cuaerthf
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the unofficial
election results which have been let out so
far bear little relationship to the figures
turned in by precinct election boards. These
show ?a higher vote for Arias, a
lower one for Robles.
The official count begins Saturday morning.
The Robles forces will be hard put to make the
earlier returns stick.
Arias has already cried fraud and could
cause trouble if he can get public acceptance
of this charge. He may be helped in this by
Panama's tempestuous students.
3. Cuba: Photography shows that additional
surface-to-air missiles ?have recently been
distributed to each of four SAM sites in Cuba.
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4. South Vietnam: Some of Khanh's civilian
ministers, who seem willing to grumble about
the general into any available ear, are now
wondering how long he can last.
Pacification chief Hoan,
is now complaining because Khanh cut
?II his weekly radio talks. Our guess is that
the general took this step because he felt
Hoan was using the talks to build up a per-
sonal political following.
Personal rivalries among high military
officers add to Khanh's plate of troubles.
On the military front the Viet Cong
ambushed a government ranger battalion Friday
morning, inflicting considerable casualties.
We have still no official word on press stories
that the Communists have trapped three govern-
ment battalions in the northern mountains.
5. Laos: The situation is as muddled as
ever with talk of coups and countercoups on
all sides.
The rightists who engineered last month's
toup are unhappy with the cautious course
which Souvanna has been pursuing and are hint-
ing that they may have to take steps to force
him out.
(Cont'd)
For The President Only - Top Secret
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For their part, the neutralists are des-
pondent over being all but excluded from the
new Lao general staff and have branded the so-
called merger of rightist and neutralist forces
an "enormous piece of hyprocrisy."
Kong Le, nominal neutralist commander, is
said to be planning some sort of a coup from
the Plaine des Jarres. His ability to bring
this off is questionable; in fact, there have
been rumors of a mutiny against Kong Le.
Souvanna is threading his way through
this maze, largely by doing as little as pos-
sible. He has still not moved to replace the
one dead and two missing neutralist ministers,
probably because he is fearful of what the
Pathet Lao may then do.
The Communists of course find all this
confusion very much to their liking. They
have kept military as well as political pres-
sure on Souvanna. Yesterday they occupied
Tha Thom with help from dissident neutralists
and North Vietnamese.
6. Indonesia-Malaysia: At present reading
the odds are strongly against a summit meeting
involving Macapagal, Sukarno and the Tunku.
The current effort to get such a meeting
? going is likely to hang up on the old problem--
withdrawal of Sukarno's guerrillas from
Malaysian soil.
(cont'd)
Few Th a Prasidant Only - Too Secret
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Sukarno's
best
offer,
to
begin withdrawing
these when the
move the Tunku.
talks
start,
is
unlikely
to
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To give point to this, the Tunku is plan-
ning to take off for the Commonwealth con-
ference at about the time Sukarno has sug-
gested for the talks.
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7. USSR: Between December 1962 and March
1964, a series of 25 target missiles was fired
from the Makat launch facility of the Sary
Shagan anti-missile test complex.
We take this to mean that the Soviet
anti-missile development program entered a
new phase in December 1962
0
0 UAR-Yemen-Aden: Nasir is cooking pp
more trouble for the British in South Arabia.
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9. East Germany: The communiqu?hich
Ulbricht signed in Budapest Wednesday marked
a shift in course for this last of the real
Stalinists.
10.
In this document he let down his guard
against relations between East European nations
and West Germany. He also brought his stand
on CEMA and the Sino-Soviet dispute closer
into line with those of Poland and Hungary,
but not of the USSR.
These shifts, which could cause Ulbricht
massive trouble with his hard-line followers,
were probably taken because he found himself
in virtual isolation from the rest of Eastern
Europe.
USSR:
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11. Communist China:
12. Communist China - Trade: This year's
Sino-Soviet trade agreement has been signed
in Peiping. Details are lacking, but we
expect trade to drop below last year's level
of about $600 million.
13.
Chinese exports will probably again
exceed imports in the order of $200 million.
This will reduce the Chinese debt to the
Soviets enough so that it can be paid off
next year.
Earlier in the week the Chinese con-
tracted for over a million tons of wheat from
Canada, bringing total Chinese buying so far'
this year to. about five million tons.
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14. Jordan Waters: So far the Arab reaction
to Israel's tests of the Jordan Waters system
has been mild. Even in Syria, the story has
received routine handling. We expect the
Arabs to begin taking a stronger line as the
tests continue and, if there are no hitches,
the project goes into operation in the summer.
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