SAGDEYEV DISCUSSES SPACE MISSIONS, POLICY, MARS PLANS

• Document Type: FOIA
• Keywords: UFO SPECIAL COLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005517514
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• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: January 31, 2011
• Case Number: F-2010-00651
• Publication Date: January 1, 1989

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Classification: UNCLASSIFIED Status: [STAY]
Document Date: 01 Jan 89 Category: [CAT)
Report Type: JPRS Report Report Date:
Report Number: JPRS-USP-$9-007 UDC Number:
Author(s): PRIRODA correspondent with Roald Zinnurovich Sagdeyev,
academician, specialist in the field of plasma physics
and space research, chairman of the Soviet Scientists'
Peace Committee, Hero of Socialist Labor, recipient of
the Lenin and State prizes, member of the U.S. National
Academy of Sciences , the Swedish Royal Academy, the Max
Planck Society and a number of other academies, under the
rubric "The Organization of Science. Space Research "
"Let Us Not Put Ourselves in the
Headline: Sagdeyev Discusses Space Missions, Folicy, Mars Plans
Source Line: 1$660073a Moscow PRIRODA in Russian No 1, Jan $9 pp
33-46
Subslug: [Interview by PRIRODA correspondent with Roald Zinnurovich
Sagdeyev, academician, specialist in the field of plasma
physics and space research, chairman of the Soviet
Scientists' Peace Committee, Hero of Socialist Labor,
recipient of the Lenin and State--prizes;-WC,uu~oz-ttte--U:S: --
National Academy of Sciences, the Swedish Royal Academy,
the Max Planck Society and a number of other academies,
under the rubric "The Organization of Science. Space
Research " : "Let Us Not Put Ourselves in the Position of
the Junior Partner!" ; first paragraph, given in boldface
as printed, is PRIRODA introduction]
FULL T8%T OF ARTICLE:
1. [Text] Space research, despite its relative youth (the 30th
anniversary of the beginning of the Space Age was observed not that
long ago), has become a well-established part of our lives. We have
become accustomed to regular launches of manned craft and unmanned
cargo craft into near-earth orbits and no longer rememb~.r very well
how many people make up the cosmonaut contingent in our country, not
to mention those in the USA. It is true that we continue to be
enraptured as we view the magnificent photographs on wh'ch have been
imprinted the Earth or, for example, the giant planets Uranus,
Jupiter or Saturn. But this is a glance from the side. But what is
actually going on in this field of science and technology whose
actual state of affairs we have long known less than we would have
liked to have known? What problems are troubling the specialists who
have devoted themselves to cosmonautics? Academician R. Z. Sagdeyev,
who headed up the U5SR Academy of Sciences's Space Research Institute
UNCLASSIFIED Approved f r Release
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for more than 15 years, shares his own thoughts in this connection in
an interview with our magazine's correspondent, N. D. M~rozovaya.
2. (Correspondent] For the two great space powers--the USSR and the
,USA--the year 1992 will be rich in major historic events: it
represents the 500th Anniversary of the discovery of America, the
75th Anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution and the
35th Anniversary of the beginning of the Space Age. Is ~t true that,
at the suggestion of these two. countries, it has been proposed that
the year 1992 be declared World Space Year?
3. [Sagdeyevj In fact, such an-idea is being discussed now in the
various international unions and, evidently, the ICSU--the
International Council of Scientific Unions-- is supporting it. (I
would remind you that all scientific unions belong to the ICSU,
including our CO5PAR--the Committee on Space Research). Everyone
recalls what a colossal success the International Geoph;sical Year
was (1957-1958), during which the earth's very first artificial
satellite was launched. This year brought together, in an unusual
manner, scientists from many countries, and the interna'~ional
scientific community welcomed the news about the launching of the
Soviet satellite with enormous enthusiasm. And now, 30 years after
that event, the very same ideas are guiding the scientists who are
proposing this time that an International Space Year now be declared.
If such a resolution is adopted, I am certain--tha?,~ -o~:RSC6 w~l--alsr>--------------
support it.
4. It is difficult to overestimate the significance of so important
a measure; it will produce an occasion for exchanging views about
what has been done in space in the past and what needs *o be done in
the future. Above all, this should strengthen internati~~nal
cooperation. Additionally, it is now very important th,:t an active
promotional campaign be conducted among the broad masses regarding
the achievements of cosmonautics and space science, because, on the
one hand, space science and technology can play an enormous role in
solving many contemporary global problems, and I have in mind, first
and foremost, ecological and economic problems, not to mention space
science itself, which is experiencing a period of turbulent growth.
And, on the other hand, the expenditures for space research are
extraordinarily great. At one time, Academician L. A. Artsimovich
defined science as a means for satisfying the curiosity of scientists
at the expense of the state. But space research is not at all an
inexpensive means for satisfying this curiosity. Therefore, the
adoption of decisions regarding the main directions to be taken in
the development of space research has always been coupled with a
heavy burden of responsibility.
5. During the development of the Soviet space program, we had an
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opportunity to discuss our own approach at the International Space
Forum, which took place in October of 1987, in Moscow. At the forum,
we stated to scientists from 35 countries our own firm conviction
that space research should not become an arena of competition and
rivalry. And the economic aspects are by far not the least important
factor. For that very reason, it is very important to explain why so
much effort is being expended and enormous amounts of resources are
being spent, while, within the framework of the scientists'
international cooperation, it is necessary to look for ways to do
this more cheaply.
6. [Correspondent] Thus, it is possible to say that space research
is already quite a "mature " field of science that, in your words,
is now blossoming. What would you list as its most fundamental
achievements in our country and abroad?
7. [Sagdeyev] I consider one of the biggest yet achievements in the
field of space research to be the discovery of the earth's radiation
belts and magnetosphere. It is no accident that, even today, the
earth's magnetosphere, with its own complex plasma dynamics, particle
acceleration and instabilities, continues to interest many
scientists. A great deal of work is being performed in that field,
and special satellites are being launched. A number of
hard-to-measure processes, such as shock waves, the recoupling of the
magnetic field's -force lines and turbulence,---make-~ ~~=ec2y~?~3+--ta-----------
perform new generations of experiments. In order to understand the
cause-and-effect connections between events in the complex solar
magnetosphere-ionosphere system, it is necessary to probe its various
critical regions simultaneously, using a broad network of satellites
and ground stations which operate in conjunction with them.
8. Thus, the Interbol project currently being prepared is intended
for investigation of near-earth outer space using a system of probes.
This project, planned for the years 1990-1991, includes two
Prognoz-type satellites, each of which will have its own
subsatellite. Interbol's basic task will be the study of the physical
mechanisms responsible for the transfer of the solar wind's energy to
the magnetosphere, for the accumulation there of this energy and for
its subsequent dissipation in the magnetosphere's auroral regions, in
the ionosphere and in the earth's atmosphere during magnetospheric
substorms. One of the satellites--the "tail probe," with its own
subsatellite--will be placed into an orbit which will pass through
the tail of the earth's magnetosphere, which is an energetic
reservoir of magnetospheric substorms; whereas the other (the
"auroral probe," with its own subsatellite) will be placed into an
orbit .which passes through the region above the so-called auroral
oval at an altitude of 5,000-15,000 lcm. Typical of this region are
the charged-particle acceleration processes and the presence of
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electric currents, which couple the electromagnetic field in the
magnetosphere 's tail with the conducting ionosphere. Along with
these experiments, studies will be made in the Interbol project of
the plasma and the magnetic structures of the far regions of the
magnetospheric tail. In order to do this, plans have been made to
use instruments on board the Relikt-2 astrophysical satellite.
9. Furthermore, in answer to your question, I want to note that our
ideas about the solar system's planets have changed considerably. I3ow
we have an opportunity for making direct contact with them. And this
applies primarily to Venus, which we began to study using space
technology resources more than 25 years ago, over which time we have
sent 18 spacecraft to it. We managed to obtain, first,
black-and-white images and, later, color images of the planet's
surface at the landing sites of these craft. The elemental
composition of the soil was determined in situ, i.e., a quite
complicated technical problem had been solved. The use of radars made
it possible to obtain a radar map of the planet's surface and to
determine its typical morphological features. A great deal o#
attention has been paid to the investigation of the atmosphere and
the cloud layer on Venus. A lot of new and interesting data--not just
about Venus, but also about Ha11ey's Comet--was obtained during the
Vega mission, but that has already been recounted in detail in
PRIRODA, and I will not dwell on it.1 Thus, summing up
certain results, I can say that the study of~~p~ane~-will -remain------
a very important area of research for several decades to come; of
this, I have no doubt.
10. Astronomy, in going out into space, has received an opportunity
to see the universe in a new way: ultraviolet and x-ray observations
have been added to the observations in the optical and radio
frequency ranges, and { quanta are being recorded very reliably. At
this very minute, the x-ray telescopes of the Kvant observatory are
making observations of the supernova which exploded in 19$7 in the
Large Magellanic Cloud. For the first time, astronomers can
investigate directly the processes which occur, it can be said, at
the nearest approaches to neutron stars and black holes.2
11. [Correspondent] In your opinion, what has space research given
and what might it give to the other fields of science? And, in
connection with this--is it possible to speak even today of some kind
of practical return from the biological or, for example, production
experiments in space?
12. [Sagdeyev] From my point of view, the biological experiments are
an independent field of space science. First of all, they have made
it possible to get an idea about the capability of the human body, or
generally any living thing, to exist and function in zero-gravity
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conditions. I cannot begin to say what practical importance they will
have in the coming decade (in addition to, of course, those
relatively brief--several months--cosmonaut flights, of which we are
currently witnesses). But, if, after about 20 or 30 years, a manned
flight to Mars still takes place, it will be a rather complicated
mission, since it will require that man's stay in space be extended
to as much as two to three years. I reiterate that, for the time
being, it is difficult to talk about some kind of practical return
from, for example, space biology for medicine, but, as p physicist, I
would say that it is extremely interesting to study a substance under
extreme conditions--at high pressures and high, or conversely,
extremely low temperatures; this immediately helps exte::d the limits
of our ideas about the phenomena under study. If, for contemporary
medicine and biology, the absence of gravity is an example of such
extreme conditions, then I think that interesting disco?:eries are
possible on this path, but, I reiterate, it is difficult for me to
make a judgment about this.
13. I would apply this very same principle of evaluation to
technology as well, in particular, to the growing of crystals under
the conditions of weightlessness. Unfortunately, no decisive step has
been made in this direction. Every now and then, there are reports
about certain minor achievements, but it seems to me that we are
still a long way off from any substantial knowledge or t.ny serious
incorporation of those achievements into cur-ea~t~i bound-pract.i-ces_.____I__
would say that a vacuum developed for a period of time in this field,
and serious specialists in solid-state physics--the ones who
determine the direction of development of this science here on
earth--did not enter the field. As a result, the vacuum was filled by
engineers hurrying to get something introduced a little faster. For
the time being, unfortuately, the situation is changing very slowly.
Apparently, it is our academy who needs to take decisive steps to
correct the situation that has developed.
14. [Correspondent] After a brief hiatus, the Soviet space program
has again turned toward Mars. I am referring to the Phobos project,
which got under way in June of 1988 with the launching of two
unmanned interplanetary vehicles to Mars and its satellite, Phobos.
As is well known, this is a multipurpose program which provides for
an variegated investigation of the planet and its satellite, the sun
and interplanetary space. Phobos should be the first small body of
the solar system whose surface will be reached by a space vehicle.
More than six months have passed since the launch of the spacecraft.
Have you managed to get any kind of interesting results over this
period of time?
15. [Sagdeyevj I would like to remind you that, on the flight path
to Mars, the majority of scientific instruments have not yet been
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turned on; nevertheless, the first and, it seems to me, interesting
data have already begun to arrive.
16._ For example, included in the project's scientific mission were
Soviet-French experiments on the study of gamma radiation from solar
flares and gamma bursts from neutron stars. Conducting these
measurements simultaneously aboard near-earth satellites and
interplanetary probes will make it possible to locate very precisely
space sources of gamma bursts and to make stereoscopic measurements
of solar flares (indeed, now, besides the Phobos vehicles, gamma
bursts are also being recorded by two American satellites--SMM and
Pioneer Venus). On the flight from Earth to Mars, the Phobos
vehicles' instruments were working continuously and were recording
gamma bursts over an interval of 1-3 days. Thanks to the high
sensitivity of the detectors and the use of microprocessors for
preliminary processing of the data, it has been possible to measure
the time structure of the { bursts with a resolution of around 1 ms.
It is already clear that the bursts' spectra have a complex,
multicomponent pattern and change in a matter of fractions of a
second. After joint processing has been performed on the data
obtained from all the space vehicles, the experimenters hope to
determine the location of unknown { radiation sources (both in the
sky and on the sun's disk) with an accuracy of several seconds of
arc.
17. And I would like to talk about one more result obtained, since
it concerns plasma physics--a field that is closest to my scientific
interests. The Phobos vehicles' instruments have located the
intersection of the shock wave front at the boundary of the earth's
magnetosphere, and the intersection was a repeated one. This affected
the relatively slow motion of the spacecraft in such a fashion that
it seemed as if the shock wave front would run ahead and then drop
back. As a result, we have obtained approximately a dozen such
intersections. It must be said that, in and of itself, the
intersection of the shock wave front is not of much interest on
earth. But, for us, this was an extraordinarily important test which
proved that the instruments aboard the spacecraft were operating
properly. We are now firmly convinced that the equipment's
sensitivity is so high that we have reached a world-class level in
plasma measurements. I am talking about the APV-F instrument--the
plasma wave analyzer.
18. Similar such instruments were also on the Vega probes, but the
situation was different at that time: the plasma activity of Halley's
Comet was so great that we were not the least bit concerned about
whether the sensitivity of the detectors was adequate or not. But in
the Phobos project, a number of very delicate tasks had been set up
which require that the equipment have enhanced sensitivity. The
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specialists have no doubts that we will be ablQ to study the shock
wave in the vicinity of Mars; but it will be much more interesting to
observe haw a small satellite, with a diameter of 20 km all told (I
am talking about Phobos), moves within the plasma--after all, it will
create disturbances of a much lesser intensity.
19. This experiment turned out to be the last one in which Frederic
Scarf--the well-known American physicist and researcher of the solar
wind and the magnetosphere and a great and long-time friend of our
institute--participated. He was also engaged in the Vega project:
Phobos became his last creation--Scarf died suddenly, literally
several days after the launching of the vehicles. i7e are now
preparing for publication the materials that were obtained. I recall
this because it was Scarf who, several years ago, discovered a very
interesting graphic method for representing the results of the
investigation of plasma oscillations with these types of
intersections of shock waves or other similar regions. The idea is a
simple one--the spectrum of the electrical and magnetic oscillations
which are characteristics of these types of processes lies in the
region of what for us are the customary sound waves. Scarf simply
converted the electromagnetic noise into sound, and an unusual
polyphonic music was obtained--an actual "sound picture." This
technique was used for the first time during the investigation of
Jupiter's magnetosphere by the Voyager interplanetary probe. I hope
that this time we will also reproduce the- `-~muste'-L--vf -Mar-s--and-------_______
Phobos according to Scarf's recipe.
20. [Correspondent] Unfortunately, on 2 September 1988, contact was
lost with the Phobos 1 probe. How will this affect the entire
research program,and what is being done in connection with this?
21. [Sagdeyev] Of course, this was a heavy blow for us. On 6
September 1988, at 5 pm Moscow time, a telegram with the following
content was sent to the members of the international cooperative who
were participating in the project: "The Control Center has informed
us that Phobos 1, because of an error in a command, lost its attitude
and is not responding to signals from earth. The Control Center is
attempting to re-establish contact with the spacecraft. We will keep
you informed of the situation."
22. So far, the situation has not changed. All kinds of measures are
being taken to re-establish contact with the vehicle. Evidently, it
will be very difficult to do this. But, so long as there exists even
the slightest theoretical possibility of getting in contact with
Phobos 1, such efforts will not cease.3
23. With regards to the scientific program of research, I would like
to remind you that twa vehicles are taking part in the project and,
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to a large extent, they duplicate one another, although,
unfortunately, not in everything. There are several instruments on
Phobos 1 that are not on Phobos 2. Primarily, I am talking about the
Terek instrument, whose tasking included investigation of the sun's
x-ray radiation. It was developed by specialists from the US5R and
the CzSSR. Now we are deprived of a lot of unique scientific
information, and this is extremely disappointing.
24. [Correspondent] One cannot help remembering how successful the
Vega mission was just two years ago, despite the fact that this was
the first multipurpose project. Undoubtedly, the performance of such
space projects is a very difficult matter in which nothing is
trifling and it is too expensive to have to pay for errors.
Obviously, the role of the scientists must increase. Is this not what
you had in mind in your speech at the International Scientific
Council on the Phobos project, which took place at the liSSR Academy
of Sciences' Space Research Institute in June of 1988, when you
called for an end to the "hegemony of the producer? "
25. [Sagdeyev] T would say that everyone is familiar with the
concept of the hegemony of the producer in our economy, on a personal
basis, and all it takes, for example, is to go .into any store. In
actuality, this phenomenon is, of course, much more widespread and,
unfortunately, those who work in cosmonautics also feel the effects
of the faulty system which has come about-fin-our-eeonem~---Por------
example, the numerous--from the first to the sixteenth--
Venera-series craft appeared not at all because our scientists were
reaching out toward Venus so very madly; rather, it was simply a
matter of this: it is either Venus (in the extreme case, Mars) or
nothing. And quite often, it was necessary to contend with the fact
that there was no real competitiveness between the industrial
enterprises which specialized in this area. In each specific field,
monopolies emerged, and, as a result, the scientists had almost no
choice.
26. Moreover, it was even necessary to put up with .them banging
their fists on the table at you. Unfortunately, this practice still
persists, as was demonstrated by the recent events associated with
the analysis of the situation on the Phobos 1 craft. Evidently,
glasnost and democracy will come to the aerospace industry last. It
seems to me that all too often, in general, people take refuge in
"secretiveness " in order to make life easier for themselves. I
attribute this primarily to those managers who lack adequate
capabilities for conducting their own affairs in a professional
(and--as a consequence--successful) manner.
27. [Correspondent] Nevertheless, one would very much like to
believe that, in the end, glasnost and democracy will cc+me to all the
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spheres of our life just the same. But, it is still not clear to me
why,. before recently, it was Venus or Mars that was selected as the
research project?
28. [Sagdeyev] For each space project, with its own scientific or
technical sparkle, it is necessary to develop an appropriate
spacecraft. In order to do this, the designers, together with the
scientists, create technical specifications that, each time, are new.
But, in our case, the task consisted of trying to use an already
existing "machine " over and over again. We were simply lucky that,
in its time, the craft of the Venera series was thought up and its
first models developed by such a remarkable enthusiast as G. N.
Babakin. One can only marvel at the longevity of these craft: after
all, with a design developed on the basis of them at the end of
the'60s for the flights to Mars (recall Mars-3 through -7)--with
certain modifications, of course--we managed in the middle of
the'80's to pull off such a complex, multipurpose project as Vega.
z9. That is why I want to emphasize once again that competitiveness
should be incorporated in the system from the very start, and then
it's a matter of the consumer (in this case, the scientist), based on
his own interests, selecting the best, the optimum version of the
design effort.
30. [Correspondent] Then, will what is now being planriea to be-done ---
during the Mars 94 project also be an example of such
competitiveness?
31. [Sagdeyev] Everything depends on how perestroyka goes. In fact,
there are still a lot of little nooks and crannies (quite a few) into
which, for all practical purposes, it has not yet penetrated because
of "secretiveness." But, I am hoping all the same that, by 1994, we
will develop a good project. And it is very important that, from the
very beginning, the principles of scientific democracy and glasnost
extend to all our international cooperation among scientists. In
fact, we have managed to establish at the Space Research Institute
quite a remarkable, informal scientific association which includes
the laboratories of 15 countries, and, in certain projects being
developed at this time, the number of participants is even greater.
The main thing is for everyone tv realize that each member of such
international cooperation has a right to his own opinion.
32. And, in my opinion, it is quite unimportant that competing
versions developed by two industrial enterprises for the Mars 94
project propose the use of different launch vehicles--either the
Proton or the Energiya, i.e., the space probes will differ in the
overall weight of the scientific package sent into space. The main
thing is that, during the process of the preparation for this
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project, the element of competitiveness emerge immediately. Indeed,
each of the groups, in proposing its own design version for the
flight to Mars, is now trying to find the most interesting features
of its own scenario in order to show that its design is the one which
will enable science to get what it wants, and to the fullest extent.
33. (Correspondent] There are differing schools of thought on manned
flights, particularly to Mars. Do you count yourself among the
proponents of such flights, or are you for the unmanned probes?
34. [Sagdeyev] I consider manned flight a very important measure. It
cannot be based only on the need to solve certain scien~ific
problems. It also has a very important political aspect, inasmuch as
it is its own kind of counterweight.to purely military projects such
as, for example, SDI. But, at the same time, it must be clearly
understood that this is also still a very complex project. It is
clear that no one is ready to do it today: the equipment needs to be
developed, and more information must be obtained about Mars itself
and about what we call its "engineering model." I am talking about
the collection and assembly of the data which must be available to
the engineers and designers in order to develop the unique equipment,
put it into a Martian orbit, and then perform the flight and landing
through the planet's atmosphere under little-known conditions.
35. Now in this first stage, as a precursor-rto~naniredflight,--there--------
absolutely must be unmanned missions by robot vehicles. They need to
be planned as the first links in a long chain of flights. In fact,
even today, we need to think about a general line of research and not
simply "snatch out" some individual flights.
35. [Correspondent] But does such a general line exist at the
present time? Md can you say something about the difference between
the strategy of the space program in .our country and that in the
West?
37. [Sagdeyev] I can freely assert that we have such a line of
research. Thanks to glasnost, which made its way into our space
science very swiftly, we simply were prepared for this, understanding
that it is impossible to work otherwise. We have been a'~le to express
and approve our own point of view on the development of space
research (of course, this point of view is not something hard and
fast--it is continuously developing, and we are taking into
consideration our partners' suggestions as well). This point of view
has now become, I would say, a generally accepted concept.
38. Good orbital craft must first be developed, then descent modules
must be landed on the surface of Mars, and then the landing craft
must be made to move about the planet's surface, i.e., turn it into a
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Martian excursion vehicle and teach it to overcome obstacles and
traverse the various geological and climatic zones of Mars. It is
.possible that, along its path, it will detect some signs of life or,
at very Ieast, traces of organisms which existed at one time.
39. [Co.rrespondent] Do you consider the question " Is there life on
Mars?" still open?
40. [Sagdeyev] Yes, it seems so to me. In any case, our.duty is to
use all of the flights to this planet to obtain a definitive answer.
A negative answer will also be extraordinarily important.
41. Subsequently, in the course of a discussion on the Mars. 94
project, our foreign colleagues proposed adding to the
above-described scenario yet another launching of balloon probes and
even advanced a very interesting idea for their design: a double
envelope--one filled with helium and one with hot air--which would
"lie down to sleep " at night and then, in the daytime, through the
action of the solar rays, rise up once again and continue its own
flight.
42. The next stage, also unmanned, involves the return of soil
samples from the most interesting regions of Mars to Earth. If, by
this time, equipment has been developed for travelling across the
surface of Mars (and it requires not only-air-umzsual-desd$n-for a _______._
self-propelled vehicle, but also, in essence, actual artificial
intelligence, which would control the Martian excursion vehicle),
then we can count on such a vehicle to gather samples of material in
the most diverse regions of the planet and deliver them to a rocket
waiting to be dispatched to Earth.
43. This is one such scenario and sequence of operatio~.s which, in
my opinion, can quite realistically be accomplished in ,.his century.
It is very important that the projects be international ones--then
they will cost each of the participants a lot less. After all, we can
no longer allow ourselves the luxury of thoughtless com;?etition-- who
will get a launch off first--with the parallel expenditures of
enormous sums. But, the main thing is for all of us--the project's
participants--to feel that we are the ambassadors of a single, small
and, unfortunately, rather fragile planet, the planet Earth.
44. [Correspondent] In the spring of 1988, you were in the USA,
where you met with American scientists and politicians. Was the
possibility of a joint preparation and flight to Mars discussed? If
so, what was achieved in these talks?
45. [Sagdeyev] To date, our meetings with the American scientists
are proceeding in this manner: we are exchanging ideas and, I would
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say, working out what are still just speculative scenarios. There is
enormous interest on both sides (by the way, it's in Europe also).
But the matter of an agreement is already being touched upon by the
highest leaders of both countries. You know that M. S. Gorbachev, in
his own speeches, has several times dwelt specially on ~.he subject of.
joint Mars research. Of course, his interest inspires us. But that
the same kind of enthusiasm needs to be displayed by the American
administration. It had no time just then, for as you know, the
election campaign was going on in the United States, but we are
hoping that the new administration will regard these space projects
with greater interest.
46. Yet, all the same, after the Moscow meeting, some changes had
begun to show in the top levels. For example, we were given the
opportunity to discuss officially the approaches to this problem (I
am talking about the flight to Mars) with NASA administrators. For
the time being, we are exchanging views on the unmanned scenarios of
the Soviet flight to Mars, with an eye to starting up, sometime in
the future, a discussion on joint missions.
47. [Correspondent] As is well known, the cost of both multipurpose
space projects--Vega and Phobos--is quite high. Errors and
malfunctions in the program can cost dearly. Would it not help here
to have mathematical modeling of the. planned experiments?
48. [SagdeyevJ In any field of science, not just in cosmonautics,
mathematical modeling is now becoming an imperative and a necessity.
That is how it was during the Vega project: we attempted to model a
large number of phenomena and processes long in advance of the launch
of the space vehicles. The very same thing occurred during the
preparations for the Phobos project as well. Thus, all the
ballistics were constructed on the basis of mathematical modeling;
the same can also be said about many other experiments. And the
farther we go, the more we need to resort to mathematical modeling.
Therefore, we are counting very much on the appearance of the
supercomputers. For us, they are not prestigious toys, Lut rather,
primarily, instruments with which it is possible to carry out a
considerable portion of the operations. Of course, this does not
replace actual physical modeling, but, it assists it to an enormous
degree. And who knows, it is possible that it will replace it in the
future! Unfortunately, for the time being, we can not get domestic
supercomputers.
49. [Correspondent] What's the reason for that?
50. [SagdeyevJ During the notorious stagnant years, when the
progress of our entire society was slowed down, including the
development of many important areas in science as well, there
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appeared yet one more sad feature--reports to the leadership which
embellished reality extremely skillfully. This created the semblance
of well-being, at both the top and the bottom. And, as a result,
entire scientific areas were neglected. Now they need to be developed
vigorously.
51. 'But this problem has another, no less terrible aspect-- the
young scientists and engineers who are working on various projects
and witnesses their supervisors skillfully "pulling the wool over
people's eyes," are simply losing heart. Or what is worse--they
themselves are beginning to work differently, and the same
"wool-pullers " are emerging among them. And that is the most
terrible thing!
52. (Correspondent] Nevertheless, one would like to believe in the
enthusiasm and reasonable optimism of our youth and to count on their
creative potential. And so, the research on the Phobos project is now
in full swing. But, certainly, discussion of-and, possibly,
preparations for other, no less important space programs are going on
at the same time. Which of them in our country and abroad would you
take particular note of?
53. [Sagdeyev] In fact, right now, the Phobos project is, without a
doubt, at the center of the international community's attention. As
the interplanetary probes get closer to Mars;-interest-in-i~-w-il].-____________
only increase.
54. But one more remarkable scientific event is taking place in
1989--the American Voyager spacecraft, after its encounters with
Jupiter and its satellites, Saturn's system and Uranus, will approach
the planet Neptune. This is an example of unusual space longevity. We
are all extremely delighted and, to be honest, terribly envious. But
I want to emphasize that, in this instance, to an enormous degree,
everything is being determined by the extremely high production
efficiency with which this craft was developed. Indeed, its entire
system, as a whole, and each .individual small component--be it a
microcircuit or a capacitor--needs to be able to operate for many
years under extreme conditions (increased radiation, enormous
temperature differentials and so on), without human intervention.
55. [Correspondent] Just how long has this space "Methuselah " been
functioning?
56. [Sagdeyev] It was launched in 1978, so it has already been in
flight for more than 10 years. But even this is not a record.
Sometimes, as a joke, we are sent invitations to a banquet for the
occasion of, for example, the 15th anniversary of Pioneer 6's
continuous operation. That craft is a predecessor of Voyager; and
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there are many such craft. And our mouths are just watering--after
all, we don't have anything like than!
S7. In the next few years, one more remarkable project is supposed
to be accomplished--the placement into space of a 2.5-meter space
telescope which has been named the "Space Telescope " or "Hubble
Observatory." It is a unique instrument; as soon as it is placed
into orbit, astronomers will see much farther than they can with any
powerful ground-based telescope; but the main thing is, they will see
in a different way, because the telescope-has-a completely different
wavelength reception range (not only the visible band, but also the
ultraviolet band of the spectrum), and, in addition, gigantic angular
accuracies are characteristic of it, inasmuch as the atmosphere does
not interfere and does not create scintillations.
58. But this instrument has become a victim of the Shuttle project.
The fact is that, in the last decade, the American space program has
contained an innate flaw--all the space projects have been tied to a
reusable craft, the shuttle. Thfs represented direct political
interference (an example of command-and-administrative methods of
leadership), the result of an unfortunate decision and the fact that
the opinions of scientists and engineers were not taken into
consideration. Now even the NASA administrators have found within
themselves the courage to acknowledge the error (and what is more,
they consider it to be history) and naw, along-with-the-~-reusarb3e-----------------
ship, they are developing (and re-establishing) a whole range of
ordinary, single-use launchers. But the space telescope and its
mechanical interfaces have been constructed in such a fashion that
they are all tied only to the shuttle, and, therefore, it is
difficult to say exactly when the telescope will be placed into
space. I can only note that our American colleagues have been
extremely perturbed by the existing situation.
59. Several other projects are also in a similar situation. For
example, Galileo, which involves the flight to Jupiter and .the
release of a "landing party!' into the planet's dense atmosphere. it
is such a .pity that the American specialists did not tale advantage
at the time of our suggestion that they order Soviet launch vehicles
for their program. Now it is already too late, but, certainly, a year
and a half to two years ago, it would have been possible to consider
this.
60. [Correspondent] But why is it too late now?
61. [Sagdeyev] The reason is the very same one--the complicated
mechanical interfaces which I spoke of in connection with the space
telescope project, and, in the case of Galileo, very extensive
changes are required, while the shuttle flights have already
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recommenced.4 But there are a whole series c.f other space
projects--and not just scientific ones, but also commercial
ones--which we are preparing in our country, in which the West could
participate, and which would also be very beneficial foi them. This
would be mutually advantageous. But, again, political considerations
are interfering. For purely political reasons, the United States did
not want to take advantage of the services of our space industry.
62. [Correspondent] You have listed the most interesting American
space projects. But how do things stand in our country?
63. [Sagdeyev] We currently have ready two astronomical satellites
(one may be launched in early 1989, and the other in mid-1989).
Primarily, I am talking about the Gamma Observatory (a joint
Soviet-French project). I.ts launch dates have already been postponed
several times. This is very disturbing to us, and it is with great
reluctance that we are agreeing to the routine postponement of the
dates about which Glavkosmos is reporting. We are very hopeful that,
this time, the launch date for the Gamma Observatory will not be
postponed.
64. [Correspondent] Why are the dates being postponed?
65. [Sagdeyev] I think it is a result of the same basic problem from
which our entire economy suffers--a lack-of ~esponsibli~~.
66. The second astronomical satellite is the Granat X-Ray
Observatory. This project was born several years after Gamma, and,
therefore, it is more modern and has instruments that are more
precise and sensitive. Thfs is also a joint Soviet-French groject. I
think that, if both observatories are placed into orbit without
further delays, they will make their own mark in space science. But
the United States may surpass us, as they have ready the GRO [Gamma
Ray Observatory] satellite for gamma ray astronomy; the weight of its
scientific instrument package is four times greater than what is on
the Gamma Observatory. It is also waiting for a launch vehicle--the
shuttle is also-supposed to place it into orbit.
b7. [Correspondent] More and more countries. are beginning to develop
their own space research. The establishment of international
cooperatives in this field is no longer a rarity; you yourself have
repeatedly mentioned this in our discussion. Is it not already time
now to develop clear-cut international statutes on space?
68. [Sagdeyev] Regardless of what the international legal norms are,
relations between the space powers will depend on the political goals
which the partners pursue. But frameworks within which these goals
could be accomplished, reliable and firm, are undoubtedly necessary.
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69. Even now, there is a whole series of international legal norms
(for example, the ban against placing nuclear weapons or other
weapons of mass destruction into space). From my point .~f view, they
need to be supplemented by a rejection of the militarization of space
in the broad sense, i.e., also banning the testing of any weapon in
space. A proposal has been made that a series of legal agreements be
concluded regarding the use of outer space in the national economy or
for economic purposes.
70. Thus, this field already has its own science--international
space law. This science is developing and, from time to time, there
are international conferences and seminars, and everyon~.: associated
with space is interested in the development of this sphere of
activity.
71. [Correspondent) Roald Zinnurovich, in our conversation, you have
talked about those space projects which are either already in full
swing or will be conducted in the next few years. But w;.at about a
look into the future? t~That kind of space projects do you foresee for
the 22nd century (in fact, there are only 11 years left until the
beginning of the 21st century)?
72. [Sagdeyev] It is a shame to admit it, but the realities of our
practical economic affairs reduce the rol~of -the--leader~r?any
scientific collective involved in space, be it the director of an
institute or the head of a laboratory, to one of spending nearly 90
of the time on the solution of immediate problems-- "forcing
through " orders, and not just such grandiose ones as an order for a
satellite or a subsequent launch, but also for an instrument which is
supposed to go up; getting the individual component assemblies which
may or may not be produced by our industry--and all of-this
represents an enormous amount of work. And, in the end, it turns aut
that, in that set of everyday current affairs, which, with proper
organization of the country's economic system, should nc,t eat up so
much time, we are not in a position to even think about projects in
the 21st century, let alone the 22nd century.
73. Nevertheless, I am hopeful that, in the 21st century, we will
witness the free travels of man within the limits of the solar
system, even though, true, it may not be us, but rather, our
descendants. I think that, during the next approach of Halley's Comet
in 2061, mankind will certainly succeed in unraveling its mystery.
Certainly, it would be dangerous to land a manned spacecraft on the
surface of the comet's core, but, who knows, it is possible that, by
that time, protection against the dust streams will have been
developed. In any case, taking a sample of material directly from the
comet's core and delivering it to earth will turn out to be a readily
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solvable problem for our descendants (and I do think that our
children's children will live to see this event).
74. [Correspondent] What do you mean by the mystery of Halley's
Comet?
75. [Sagdeyev] Today, we can not answer many of the questions about
the physics of comets--for example, why this comet behaves so
unusually. All it has to do is approach to a given distance from the
sun, and then, over the course of several weeks, it continues to
"stew" with tremendous intensity. Such thermal "memory " of a
comet is retained for a long time. Inasmuch as we know the heat
capacity of fts matter, we can make approximate estimations, but,
based on them, such an evaporation process is not supposed to last so
long. Meanwhile, the comet continues to "stew," and much more
intensely than it did at the same distance from the sun during its
approach. The nature of such asymmetry is not understood. Evidently,
there occur on the surface of the comet's core some unknown physical
and chemical processes which we have not yet been able to investigate
fully.
76. And finally, there is the matter of the comet's origin. It has
yet to be solved. In order to do this, it will first of all be
necessary to deliver cometary matter to earth.
77. [Correspondent] The next question extends beyond the framework
of our present conversation. Keeping in mind_the social and political
events and the process which are taking place in our country, what is
your understanding of democratization and glasnost in science and
how, in your opinion, should the USSR Academy of Sciences reorganize
its own work?
78. [Sagdeyev] It seems to me that our academy has its own unique
and special place in the worldwide family of scientific societies.
Once elected into the academy, its members receive such a bouquet of
privileges as is not possessed by a member of any other academy in
the world. I am not talking simply about additional material goods;
in the final analysis, the processes which are going on in the
country (including the inevitable inflation) are gradua:.ly
diminishing this difference and, later, it will be reduced even more,
What I am talking about is that, in addition to the respect, which is
also enjoyed by members of foreign academies (in fact, election
itself is an act of recognition of their services), the members of
our academy receive levers for influencing scientific policy as well.
As a rule, the academicians head up institutes and, if cne of the
institutes is unable to secure for itself an academician as the
director, it simply considers itself a poor relative. Very
frequently, regardless of the scientific merits of the director of
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such an institute, an attempt is made during .the regular elections to
the academy to "correct" the situation. Moreover, influence on the
scientific policy is achieved through the USSR Academy of Sciences'
Sections, Departments and Problems Councils, which are headed up by
academicians. As a result, thousands of first-rate
scientists--doctors and candidates of sciences, those who, because of
an unfortunate twist of fate, did not manage to become members of the
academy (and there are many such cases)--have, to a large extent,
have been excluded from the actual process of conducting scientific
policy.
79. Therefore, democratization in science, first and foremost,
should liberate the gigantic creative potential of the: main group of
people who create science.
80. [Correspondent] What, specifically, do you suggest be done?
81. Possible measures are being discussed rather widely and the
president of the USSR Academy of Sciences, G. I. Marchuk, has
repeatedly spoken out about this, particularly in the press. There
was talk about greater and greater autonomy for the departments and
about transferring authority from the level of the presidium and the
sections to the level of the departments. This idea immediately
received support, but it became clear rather quickly that, if the
departments concentrate _ all the absolute aut awn------- ------
hands, then, in the final analysis, it will be a restoration of the
ministerial main administrations which are being condemned currently.
82. At the present time, the process of revitalizing the institutes
is going on; they should receive greater autonomy. Therefore, in my
opinion, the next step is the institutes' use of the obtained rights
and genuine democratization inside the institutes. Many different
measures exist for bringing this about. First of all, elections of
the institute's director and the members of the academic council. It
should be said right off that I am against these elections being
turned into an uncontrolled veche [ancient Russian public assembly].
Because then the opinions of people who are not competent and who are
somewhere on the periphery of science are, in essence, equal to the
opinions of the specialists, and, as a result, the election process
(just like any other) becomes uncontrolled. But, of course, the
voice of each scientific associate must be heard.
83. Furthermore, I feel that the democratization of the institute's
scientific affairs should include the further transfer of authority
(including financial and economic) to the laboratories, which should
become the basic unit in the scientific community. It is necessary to
conduct a search for new forms for financing the scientific
collectives on competitive bases and to develop competitiveness
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between them. And then our scientists, many of whom have worldwide
recognition, will actually be able to influence scientific policy in
this country, and it will not be controlled by only a narrow, private
circle of academy members. It is then that our science will actually
take a real step forward.
84. At the same time, of course, it is also necessary to improve
greatly the material conditions in which science is developing.
Because, granting a laboratory autonomy without giving it the
capability of acquiring, for example, a computer, is the same as 3ust
doing nothing.
85. [Correspondent] You were a delegate to the 19th party
conference. What made the greatest. impression on you at that most
important event in our country's affairs last year?
86. [Sagdeyev] The speech by M. S. Gorbachevy and for the
scientist--especially that section of his report which was devoted to
science. At that time, I got the impression that, in that report on
the problems and needs of our science, everything was said that I
myself wanted to say. Perhaps, to some degree, the laci~luster
reaction of the party conference delegates to the speeches by the
leaders of our academy can be accounted for by the fact that it was
difficult to add anything new.
87. But what really annoyed me was the offhand manner in which many
delegates "wiped their feet" on science. As an example, T will
refer to the speech by the general director of the Ivanovo
Machine-Tool Production Association imeni the 50th Anniversary of the
USSR, V. P. Kabaidze. I would even say that, in some seise, such a
style would be more appropriate at a Gennadiy Khazanov concert. With
such an attitude toward science, even the organizational and economic
talent which Comrade Kabaidze undoubtedly possesses wiles not help our
industry to move Soviet technology to the leading edge.
8$. I understand what the roots of such an attitude toward science
are. Indeed, over the course of many decades, particularly during the
period of stagnation, our science was a "packet" science--nobody
thought about us until, basically, it was necessary to substantiate,
for example, a routine decision about a new general assault on
nature. And now, a reverse wave has emerged. Tt is completely
legitimate to question the moral and social integrity of the
scientist. It is no accident that discussions centering on specific
facts--for example, the polluting of Lake Baykal or the notorious
diversion of rivers--and on the names of the specific scientists who
personally participated in those sadly familiar decisions are not
fading away.
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89. In many respects, we ourselves are to blame for the fact that a
loss of interest in science and skepticism-with respect to it are now
being observed. And here, an enormous role belongs to the promotion
of the achievements of science, since science and its importance are
served by the mass media's resources. One idea is to publish a
special USSR Academy of Sciences newspaper; the president of the USSR
Academy of Sciences made such a proposal at the conference.
90. [Correspondent] Are you talking about one more popular science
publication, of which, it would seem, there are quite enough, or
something totally new?
91. [Sagdeyev] The basic aim is to make all the scientists and all
the members of the scientific community feel that they are one family
and to see to it that feedback is faster and not as slog. as, for
example, the feedback with the currently published magazines. This is
why it is necessary to have, if not a daily paper, then at least a
weekly paper.5
92. But even that sort of newspaper will not solve the problem of
the promotion of the achievements and role of science among the broad
masses, since the scientists will basically be the ones reading it.
Here also, I support the idea expressed recently by Academician L. I.
Abalkin: it is necessary that one of our major newspapers, for
example, PRAVDA, once a week, set aside a wile page or sc
is possible that IZVESTIYA would be better suited for this purpose
(but not SOVET5KAYA ROSSIYA!).
93. In general, it should be noted with regret that there was
recently a page in some publications for para-science. But it is not
new. I remember, about 12 years ago, I gave a popular 1Peture in
Gosplan's large lecture hall. An enormous hall, and hundreds of
workers. Hy speech was devoted to the use of the achievements of
cosmonautics in the national economy. At the end of the speech, they
began to put questions to me--orally and in the form of notes. There
were about 20 notes, and they were all devoted to one topic--flying
saucers! I opened one after another, expecting a question actually
relating to the theme of my speech. But when I opened the last one
and saw that it contained that very same question, I could not take
it anymore and shouted in a fit of temper: "Now that I know what
kind of space research interests Gosplan's workers the most, I
understand why we have such a mess in the national economy!"
Academician M. V. Keldysh laughed for a long time when I told him
about it all, but then he noted: "But you really acted very
carelessly--the financing of scientific research depends on them."
94. I think that, back then, we put ourselves too often in the
position of the junior partner, and we did not courageously defend
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the interests of science. I hope that those times are gone for good.
95. [Correspondent] In conclusion, Roald Zinnurovich, all that
remains is for me to thank you for an interesting and substantive
interview. I hope that PRIRODA's readers will have the chance to hear
from you again and again about the achievements and problems of space
research--one of the youngest and most promising areas of science.
97. 1. L. S. Marochnik, G. A. Skuridin, "Rendezvous With Halley's
Comet," PRIRODA, 1982, No 2, pp 2-18; V. M. Balebanov, V. I. Moroz,
L. M. Mukhin, "The First Stage of the Vega Mission: the Study of the
Venusian Surface," PRIRODA, 1985, No 6, pp 3-12.
98. 2. Yu. N. Yefremov, "The Explosion of a Supernova in the Large
Magellanic Cloud," PRIRODA, 1987, No 6, pp 102-104.
99. 3. Communications with the Phobos 1 vehicle have nit been
re-established. (Editor's note)
100. 4. On 15 November 1988, our country also accomplished the
launching of a reusable ship, Buran. It was placed into orbit by the
Energiya rocket, and the landing was accomplished in an automated
mode. (Editor's note) ---~ - -----
101. 5. Beginning in 1989, the weekly NAUKA I VYSSHAYA SHKOLA
[Science and Higher Education] will be published. (Editor's note)