NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005630495
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: April 26, 2011
• Case Number: F-2007-01516
• Publication Date: March 7, 1980

Central
1,APPROVED FOR RELEASED
DATE: 04-13-2011
 NORTH YEMEN - USSR: Soviet Gains
North Yemeni President Salih's attempts to maneuver among
conflicting pressures have Zed to increased Soviet influence in
North Yemen. Frustrated with Saudi Arabia's control' over the
supply of US weapons, Salih last summer signed a mcjor arms deal
with the USSR. In addition, more Soviet military personnel appar-
entZy have arrived in North Yemen, and a substantial number of North
Yemenis recently have gone to the USSR for military training. Al-
though SaZih is now trying to balance these moves with new over-
tures to Saudi Arabia--his primary source of financial support--
the USSR's gains are still intact.
Soviet equipment continues to arrive in North Yemen.
Last month the Soviets delivered 10 SU-7, SU-20, or SU-
22 fighter-bombers, 20 T-55 tanks, 10 BRDM-2 armored
reconnaissance vehicles, some antiaircraft artillery,
and ap roximatel 50 metric tons of small arms ammuni-
tion.
The fighter-bombers and the armored vehicles are
new items for the North Yemenis.
watch part of the unloading of the first shipment of
fighter-bombers on 24 February.
The arrival of the equipment reportedly has already
resulted in an increase of Soviet technicians in North
Yemen.
The latest aircraft deliveries probably will require
additional technicians. Even if Salih does not agree
to accept them, he is not likely to reduce significantly
the number of. those already present.
 Since last November, the Saudis have tried to limit
Soviet gains by proposing to Salih that they provide non-
Communist technicians and advisers for the Soviet arms.
They threatened to suspend their financial support
The Saudi move, combined with Salih's own desire
not to close irrevocably any option, has led him to accept
provisionally the Saudi proposal. The two governments
continue to view one another with deep mistrust, however,
and an agreement between them probably will be tenta-
tive.
Growing Leftist Influence
The Soviets also have benefited indirectly over the
past year by the fact that leftists have replaced pro-
Saudi officials and advisers in the government.
As a result of his maneuvering, Salih risks losing
control over events. While the President may be sincere
in asserting that he has had to negotiate over unity with
Marxist South Yemen to gain time while rebuilding his
military, he probably will be faced with an agreed draft
joint constitution in the next few months.
Prospects
The Yemens take on greater importance for both super-
powers following the invasion of Afghanistan and the
resulting environment, with its increased potential for
Tn^ a et.
14
7 March 1980
 TTop
Arabian peninsula.
US-Soviet military confrontation in the Red Sea - Persian
Gulf area. The USSR is likely to exploit and encourage
Sana's leftward shift, hoping in the process to counter
efforts by the US to obtain bases in the region and to
promote the general erosion of Western influence on the
the results Aden and Moscow want.
Although, in the past, Moscow has sought to dis-
courage South Yemen from-military aggression, there re-
mains the danger that the USSR will encourage increasing
subversion and limited military action by South Yemen--
and the National Democratic Front it sponsors--if the
negotiations between North and South Yemen fail to achieve
A unified and Soviet-backed Yemen would be larger
in population than Saudi Arabia and a potential military
challenger. Riyadh would almost certainly look upon the
500,000 Yemeni workers now in Saudi Arabia as a security
problem. This would heighten Saudi concern for the grow-
ing Soviet role in the region and reinforce Riyadh's
sense of vulnerability and encirclement.