(EST PUB DATE) ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES ON THE PRC NUCLEAR PROGRAM

• Document Type: FOIA
• Keywords: NUCLEAR WEAPONS
• Keywords: PRC
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0000365042
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 27
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 27, 2011
• Case Number: F-2008-00222
• Publication Date: July 1, 1975

Copy No. l
 ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES ON THE PPC NUCLEAR PROGRAM
1 ! i , ' I , . !
if dltu nuclear weapons research, development; fabrication, and testing have accounted
pro uction,, uranium enrichment, and plutonium production)- Rack niiripir Pa .._t.
pro uction of nuclear
a , 1materials (uranium mining and concentrating, ..feed materials and heavy water
a
e
if
Y an a of expenditure
has gone to the construction and operation of facilities for th d
I. , Expenditures on the nuclear program'of the People's Republic of China
up Irregularly in about $150 million in the early 1960s to 1-Inn million a? Pa,.-+
totaled an estimated US, $3.7 billion,through 1974. Annual spending has moved
2. Capital investment and operating expenditures have accou
t
d f
n
e
or about
148 and 52% of total spending, respectively F'ightl mor
th h
; ?V-rAVaVJJiing ~_nma s second generation of production
facilities,, occurred in 1970-71.
p
es merit peaked during the
e
arly;
to
mid-1960s ; as initial production facilities were being completed. A new
---- I -,- vu,?v?I. a uc largest
amounts ;were spent 'on installations for plutoniuproduction, uranium enrichment,
1 and nuclear, 'weapons R&D and, fabrication Ca
ital trip IF
i~ I! ,. j3.. Capital investment through 1974 in facilities identified as part of the
it, 16
., g m o service.
By 1973.74,: 'annual: operating costs had risen to $220 million. Operating costs
n
crease continuously
f since the early years of the program; as new installations have one ' t
,
s Ong, %,
' and basic, nuclear research, 20%. Annual operating costs have i
d
estimated at approximately $1.9 billion. 'Of: this total, production of nuclear
materials accounted for 47%, nuclear; weapons R&D
fabrication and to t' 33
4. Operating expenditures on'the PRC nuclear program through 1974 are
ey:,may! ;be uL'ected to: of the:;Office of Economic Research,
3?C3 V11 LnC:autnor..e;omments and queries regarding the publication are welcomed.
I' 7~h i
?
a
e
summariesof
j( the estimates of capital investment and nnprnfin.. e......_a:...___
d
coordinated arc an
with the Office of Scientific Intelligence More det
'1
d
Note:! This; publication was prepared by the office of Economic Rese
h
July 1975
 :The Chinese nuclear program began in earnest following the signing in
October 1957 of an agreement with the Soviet Union concerning new technology
--- - -- -- -..?.v .....,, ~.uu.Vav %--- wum i n imu to uranium
f eYr'!,ration land . mining and basi nuci:ar : research. Although terms of the
I Sino-Soviet agreement have never been made public, the USSR is known to have
- .------''-- - ..?. ... VYJ.V, JV1VI,,,IIG 1Usv11wi, raw materials
procurement, fi sionable materials production, and weapon production facility
IF Aesign. In 1957-58, ,the Soviet :Union supplied China with major items of nuclear
!f research equinment.j as part of an earlier (April 1955) agreement on cooperation
`m the peaceful uses of nuclear. energy. Included in the equipment was a 7-10
megawatt (MW) (thermal): research reactor that was installed at the newly created
Institute of Atomic, Energy (IAE) outside' Peking.
6. Ins June 1959 the Soviet Union abrogated the 1957 a t
e
gr
emen , and in
mid-1960, with th%; ;widening of the 'Sino-Soviet rift Moscow summaril wtl d
i
i row
` y
? its technicians of all. sorts from China. Peking's determination to continue a nuclear
weapons development program remained unchanged, and work continued on the
E facilities required for research , and the manufacture of nuclear materials. The
,'',People's Republic detonated its first nuclear 'device on 16 October 1964.
fl 7 t The. Chinese program ,has continued to move forward in spite of internal
political upheavals, notably the Great Leap, Forward (1958-60) and the Cultural
(:, Revolution; (1966-69). The program' has had ,the highest priority, and the rapid
I;progress! in; the, field 'reflects the nuclear program's near isolation from nmiri,.,i
I. -? ? ???; c.~a,uy,c, LIM n w... progressea irom its first fission test in 1964 to
the'' successful .detonation ' of a ft, l
ermonuc ear device on 28 December 1966.
Although the USSR took four, years and; France more than eight to make this
'
progression
, China made', it, in less than three years, working with a much less
d
,i
, a vance
,
ndustrial 1 and scientific base. Today, the People's Republic has a
The .nuclear program has absorbed a large portion of China's choicest
Y,u,VYw
I ,l currency represents less
than one-quarter of ;1 of China's GNP, the program constitutes a substantial cost
in forgone opportunities, fore industrial and technical advances on other fronts.
 -TOP SE-GRET
8. Total expenditures on the Chinese,'nuclear program are estimated to have
has constituted operating expenditures.'; The scheduling of expenditures on the
$1.75f billion, or, 48%, has constituted; capital investment, and $1.9 billion, or 52%,
been approximately $3.7 billion through 19,74 (see Table 1). Of this total, about
Although an estimate of cumulative
expenditures at installations built or in operation prior to 1960 has been included,
any allocation of the , estimate year, by year would be arbitrary.
Table 1{
~1', 'II'I -'?~~ i~,i I ~i II .iii ~ 'i, ii i,~ ~
I. ~ ~ f~ ~ it ~ ! I I
Capital :.;' Operating
1 Investment ; !; Expenditures
!, i;' '; 1,750
110
135
,i. 115
Jti'.110:
,,1 .150 !
12S
135
95
95
65 ;,`11
130
~. `I. 430
105
80
30
1,910
20
10
20,
40
50
90
1105
130
140
145
.165 '
165
,190
:200
220
'220
Million US $
3,660
130
145
160
155
160
240
230
265
235
240
230
295
320
305
300
250
 Annual spending on the ; nuclear program since 1960 has increased to
more than $300 million in 1971-73 The largest'jumps in annual spending occurred
new, Chinese :nuclear material production facilities and in a nuclear weapons
completed and placed into operation, the share of operating costs in total spending
development and production complex peaked 'in 1970. As new facilities were
has increases ;steadily (see Figure 2).
CHINA: Estimated Annual Expenditures on the Nuclear Program
Figure 2
 function has not yet' been determined, has been excluded. (To avoid ambiguity
in' the coverage of j the present' estimates, a list, of facilities included is given in
Appendix,. A.) i
dollars used' are; a "mixed breed" based on ruble/dollar ratios, direct analogies,
installations in the West under Chinese technical and administrative conditions. The
i .11'.. 'i,? ! These estimates of expenditure, .on the PRC nuclear program purport to
represent the dollar spending ;required to :build and' operate the various nuclear
and various, foreign 'exchange rates.
of the total cost of the program.
expenditures through 1974 are estimated to have ; been nearly $2 billion, or 54%
production' of nuclear materials (uranium mining and concentrating, feed materials
production, uranium enrichment, and plutonium production). In China's case, these
Functional : Allocation' of Expenditures
llj~ ' 111 ', The ; acquisition of a 'comprehensive, nuclear weapons production
capability requires 'the construction and operation of a large number of diverse ,
facilities. The ~ largest expenditure , is usually associated with facilities for the
13. !,: Facilities; for the necessary basic nuclear research and weapons research,
development,, and testing also require sizable! 'expenditures. Table 2, provides a
functional ;allocation of estimated,, spending on the; Chinese nuclear program. A
brief' discussion of each of the major portions. of the program follows in the text.
Both the.discussion and the estimates of spending presented are limited to activities
required] 'up to and including -the fabrication and, assembly of nuclear devices. No
it have { been made of ,expenditures for, nuclear weapons delivery systems
operating expenses make up '57% and 43%, respectively. Operating costs in 1974
are j estimated' at about $30 n.illion
!11111 !Uranium i Exploration. Mining; and Concentrating
in China, through ;1974 are estimated : to. have been, about $435 million, 12% of
the total 'program costs (see Table 2). Of, this amount, capital investment and
TOP SECRET
1 i~ 1 f I'
~~ Ji 14 lt$~.I4 1 .~l1 iI 1~I1L.~:,)
 on the Nuclear Program Through 1974
Total I1 ` '
!(' Uranium;exploration mining,
!il' I': Feed materials and heavy
Basic nuclear research
i ranlum!enrichment
Plutonium production
'! J, Nuclear weapons research, de-
,'' 'velopment, and fabrication
Nuclear' weapons testing I
1,750
100
1,910
100
3,660 -
100
'250
14
135
!,I 8,
340
18
475
13
180
10
385
20
565
15
!;330
19
215
11
545
15
-360
21
r
155.
8
515
14
3S0' ,
120;
530
28
880
24
145
8
'100
5
245
7
 Production of feed materials and heavy water through 1974. About one-third of
16. The PRC 1 is estimated to have spent approximately $475 million for the
' thew expenditures was for capital investment
Cumulative operating
expen itures are,* estimated at about., $340 million (see Table 2), and annual
operating ;costs in ;l 974 at about :$30 million.
Spending for basic nuclear research
has been
through
4974. ;Capital 'expenditures have accounted for about 32% of this am unt
0
0
, or
approximately ; $180 million, and operating costs for the remainder, about $385
million (see. Table 2).
relatively : constant at
annual operating expenditures have remained
about $25 million since the mid-1960s.
' Uranium Enrichment '
1, program.
million per year in- the period 1964.71 to. more than $30 million in 1974.
at 52l.5 million /see Tahlk 21 nnAratina meta have inerpaenrI frn.,. ahn.,? e I
i Basic ; Nuclear .Research
I9. i Cumulative. ope'rating;expe'nditure's for uranium enrichment are estimated
 iTI
-11
Plutonium Production
21.. , Chinese expenditures for the production of plutonium are estimated at
approximately $515 million. Capital investment has accounted for 70% of this total,
or, $360 million, and operating expenditures about 30%, or $155 million (see
Table: 2).
 TOP SECRET-
I I I ~ I
 ~ I
r~~ i (I~: ;u l J~~ ~I~ .~
 I I f
It!l 7 tN
. ~llIII!.I! I I" ~I Iie~ ..l
 avr S E vi~nz
Nuclear ; Weapons Research, Development, and Fabrication
Capital 'investment of about $350 million and operating costs of $530 million make
123.-; Total expenditures by the Chinese on nuclear weapons R&D and
fabrication through 1974 are estimated to have, been approximately $880 million.
increased 'since the early 1960s to more than, $70 million in 1974.
up I this total.i This spending category is the largest in the Chinese program, making
up 1124% of total program costs (see Table'' 2). Annual operating costs have steadily
}H PRC ' spending for' the; testing of, nuclear weapons through 1974 is
estimated at $245, million, 7% of the cost of the nuclear program.
(China is not a signatory of the
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