ROBUST GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGENDA FOR 1998

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005284779
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2011
• Case Number: F-2008-00831
• Publication Date: January 12, 1998

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Intelligence 'Report'
DCI Environmental Center
Robust Global Environmental Agenda For 1998
about noncompliance with international environmental agreements.
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12 January 1998
Follow-up activities to the December 1997 Kyoto Climate Change agreement will
dominate the international environmental agenda over next year with many divisive
issues to be resolved prior to the Fourth Conference of Parties (COP) in Argentina
next fall. Developed countries will struggle with devising strategies for carbon
reduction during 2008-2012, the first emissions reduction period, and many LDCs,
particularly China and India, are likely to continue resisting future reduction targets
for themselves. Other meetings will address issues such as the global management of
the oceans, negotiations on a ban on dangerous chemicals, and the growing concern
Next Steps After Kyoto
Governments will be assessing the economic impact of the Kyoto accord and
mapping out policy measures to implement their emissions commitments. Canada
and other energy-intensive countries will have a tough time selling the negotiated
reduction targets to their domestic audiences.
The Japanese Cabinet has proposed a package including improved
energy efficiencies in auto transport, construction of more nuclear
plants, and tree planting to absorb carbon dioxide.
? The EU has a list of policies for member states to adopt, but the
European Commission will first reevaluate the policy implications of
reducing emissions of six greenhouse gases, as agreed at Kyoto, rather
than the three it had decided upon earlier. In addition, the EU Council
will debate an equitable burden-sharing formula allocating emissions
obligations among the larger and smaller member states.
? Developed countries also will set the guidelines under which emissions
trading and joint implementation programs will be permitted. The EU
insists that developed countries should be allowed to count emissions-
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DATE: 17-May-2011
 reducing investments in LDCs against only 30 percent of their own
targets, while the US is counting on this device as a principal means of
reaching US emissions reductions.
A top priority for developed countries will be bringing China and India--the two
largest emitters outside of the US and Europe--into the expanding circle of G-77
countries willing to at least consider voluntary caps on the growth of emissions.
? In Kyoto, key LDCs, such as Argentina, Chile, and Mexico, broke
ranks with China and India by supporting the US proposal for an opt-
in mechanism for advanced LDCs, emissions trading, and joint
implementation..
? China and India, however, are likely to remain strident in their
opposition to emissions targets for developing countries which the
see as brakes on economic growth
Other Negotiations Underscore Divisive Issues
POPs. UN-sponsored sessions to draft a treaty on persistent organic pollutants
(POPs) made progress last year on finalizing the initial list of substances--mostly
pesticides and other chemicals--and control measures to be included in the draft
protocol, but significant differences exist mainly between the US and the EU on the
process and criteria for adding new substances to the protocol. Delegates will be hard
pressed to have a draft ready to present to the first formal negotiating session
scheduled for June.
Washington remains isolated in its position
that any proposal to add new substances require a rigorous review to
demonstrate that it meets scientifically based criteria. The EU--
particularly the Nordics and the UK--favors a less stringent process
allowing the Executive Body of the UN/Economic Commission for
Europe's Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention
(LRTAP) to make the determination.
? There also is deep disagreement over whether or not to ban outright the
import or export of POPs whose production and use are prohibited.
The US, Canada, and Italy assert that production and use controls
 effectively address the question, while the European Commission is
adamant that all POPs exports should be banned and all stockpiles be
destroyed to prevent their release into the environment.
? Also in dispute is a phaseout schedule for PCBs that are still in use,
with the US, Russia, and Ukraine pressing for voluntary phase outs
and the EU--concerned about high numbers of leaking electrical
transformers in the NIS countries--demanding firm phaseout dates.
Hazardous Wastes. Debate at the Basel Convention Conference of Parties in
February will revolve around the controversial amendment proposed at the last COP
to ban exports of hazardous waste from OECD countries to non-OECD countries for
disposal and recycling. The debate is over whether to include in the ban wastes, such
as scrap metals, plastics, and paper, that are considered by the US and many other
OECD countries to be recoverable commodities.
? At a meeting of Basel negotiators in June, Brazil, Chile, the EU, and
others said they will support formal adoption in February of the waste
classification list drawn up by the Basel Technical Working Group that
will exclude most scrap metals, ensuring that the multimillion dollar
trade in recyclables will not be disrupted. These countries, along with
Canada and Japan, say that limiting the scope of the proposed ban and
ending ambiguity over, waste classifications has paved the way to
agreement at the COP.
BiodiversityfBiosafety. Biosafety negotiations will center around defining which
genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and products derived through biotechnology
are to be covered under the proposed protocol limiting their use that will be debated at
the COP in May. Negotiators will try to defuse looming trade disputes between the
US and EU over the EU's proposed eco-labeling scheme and rejection of some GMO
products because of environmental and consumer safety concerns.
? The EU is to decide this year whether to adopt the European
Commission's recommendation that all products containing GMOs
be labeled as such and segregated. In particular, US exports of gene-
altered soybeans and corn would be affected; roughly 60 percent
of all processed foods contain soy.
Oceans. The UN has declared 1998 as the "Year of the Oceans" and, under
newly appointed director Klaus Toepfer, former German Environment Minister, will
sponsor several meetings aimed at expanding global management of the seas. The
Independent World Commission on Oceans, founded in 1995 and headed by former
 Portuguese President Soares, recently met in Cape Town and will present its
proposals to the UN General Assembly outlining additional measures to halt ocean
pollution and over fishing, and to ensure equitable use of ocean resources. No new
treaty is likely to result from these discussions, however, because these issues are
managed under existing global agreements such as the Law of the Sea and the London
Convention, as well as numerous regional accords to control ocean dumping of
radioactive and other wastes.
Focus on Enforcement. The G-7 (plus Russia) Environment Ministers will meet in
Washington in late January to discuss how to move forward domestically and jointly
with efforts agreed to last year to better integrate environmental enforcement with
traditional law enforcement institutions and agencies. New initiatives may emerge
that promote harmonization of data collection and management, and that coordinate
existing mechanisms used to track crossborder waste shipments. Interpol and
Europol have taken on environmental crimes as an issue over the past few years and
may participate in the consultations. Participants are likely to present examples of
their efforts to enforce domestic and international environmental agreements,
focusing on the illegal trade in CFCs and the lucrative illegal transport and disposal of
wastes.
? German participants almost certainly will highlight the arrests their
law enforcement agencies made last year of several illegal waste
brokers, and the UK--which assumes in January the presidency of the
EU and will host the G-7/8 Economic Summit in June--will likely cite
the conference it held on environmental crime last year. The UK also
can point to high-profile efforts it has taken to crack down on illegal
CFCs and endangered species smugglers.
? In addition, Germany, Italy, and the UK are likely to try to deflect
criticism of lax enforcement of their environmental rules by
citing the recent decision by the European Commission to pursue
legal action against several member states--including imposing
financial penalties--for infringement of EU environmental directives.
 Selected International Environment-Related Meetings
21-22 January 1998
G-7/8 Environment Ministers Meeting
Washington
on Environmental Enforcement
POPs Working Group on Strategies
Geneva
23-27 February
Fourth Conference of Parties to the
Kuching
Basel Convention on Hazardous Waste
19-20 March
WTO Committee on Trade and Environment
TBD
23 March
EU Environment Ministers Meeting
Brussels
28 March
Summit of the Americas
Santiago
2-3 April
OECD Environment Ministerial
TED
4-15 May 1998
Conference of Parties to the
Bratislava
Convention on Biodiversity
18-22 May
Eighth Meeting of Parties to the UN
TBD
Convention on the Law of the Sea
22 May-30 September
Lisbon World Exposition (EXPO 198)
Lisbon
Theme: The Oceans, a Heritage for
the Future
23-25 June
Fourth Environment for Europe Ministerial
Aarhus
30 June
First Global POPs Negotiating Session
Geneva
June/August
Intergovernmental Forum on Forests
TBD
July
Independent World Commission
Lisbon
on Oceans
24 August-4 September
Second Conference of Parties to the
Convention to Combat Desertification
APEC Senior Officials Meeting on Environment
Singapore
Tenth Conference of Parties to the
Montreal Protocol