INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005284809
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2011
• Case Number: F-2008-00831
• Publication Date: January 16, 1998

er -? .. 9,-t9~
m? +otoeoeQSSeaO~?as~aswsas?~~1~
International Environmental Intelligence Brief
Contents
Articles
Robust Global Environmental Agenda
Postmortem on Kyoto
Next Steps From Kyoto
Malaysia Not Giving Up on Troubled Dam Project
Calendar - Selected International Environment-Related Meetings, 1998
Egypt: First Steps Toward Greening the Sinai
Philippines Concerned About El Nino-Induced Drought
Malawi and Mozambique Preparing To Weather El Nino
APPROVED FOR RELEASEL
DATE: 17-May-2011
12
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
 Robust Global Environmental Agenda
Follow-up activities to the Kyoto Climate
Change agreement will dominate the
international environmental agenda this
year, with many divisive issues to be
resolved prior to the Conference of Parties
next fall in Argentina. Developed countries,
for example, must map out policy measures
to implement their carbon emission
reduction commitments for the 2008-2012
period.
- In addition, developed countries will
set guidelines under which emissions
trading and joint implementation
projects will be permitted.
-- The EU must calculate the economic
and policy implications of reducing
emissions of six gases rather than the
three it has already studied-and
develop an equitable burdensharing
formula allocating obligations among
member states.
Developed nations will push hard to
convince LDCs-who are not part of the
treaty-to cap their emissions voluntarily.
Nonetheless, many LDCs-particularly
China and India-likely will continue
resisting future reduction targets for
themselves, claiming they would be
hurt economically.
Non-Kyoto Issues Remain Contentious
UN-sponsored sessions to draft a treaty
banning the use and export of persistent
organic pollutants made progress last year
on finalizing the list of substances-mostly
agricultural and industrial chemicals-and
the control measures. A draft treaty is to be
presented to the first negotiating session in
June, but significant differences remain
between the US, the EU, and others over the
criteria for adding new chemicals to the ban.
he EU countries-
particularly the Nordic countries and the
UK-favor a flexible approach over a
regime that would subject proposals to
ban additional chemicals to a rigorous
scientific review.
The Conference of Parties to the Basel
Convention on Hazardous Wastes next
month will discuss a proposal to exclude
scrap metals and other recyclable
commodities from the ban on exports of
hazardous wastes from OECD to non-OECD
countries. Increasing numbers of LDCs
support limiting the scope of the ban,
Biosafety negotiations in May will center on
defining which genetically modified
organisms (GMOs) and products derived
through biotechnology should be covered
under a proposed protocol limiting their use.
Negotiators will address the US-EU trade
dispute over the EU's rejection of some
GMO products-such as soybeans and
corn-and the EU's proposed ecolabeling
scheme.
The G-7/8 Environment Ministers and
EUROPOL officials will meet in
Washington this month to discuss ways to
improve enforcement of environmental
treaties over the next year. Germany, Italy,
and the UK will try to deflect criticism of
lax enforcement by highlighting their recent
 efforts to crack down on illegal CFC and
hazardous waste smugglers. They will note
that the European Commission has initiated
legal actions against member states for
infringement of EU environmental laws.
 Postmortem on Kyoto
Several factors were crucial in overcoming
the impasse during the Kyoto negotiations
last month Chairman
Estrada di;played a particularly deft touch in
crafting a compromise that recognized both
sides' positions on an emissions trading
provision in the Protocol. To satisfy China,
India, Saudi Arabia, and some African
countries, he issued a chairman's decision
paper calling for further study of emissions
trading. At the same time, he created a new
article in the Protocol acknowledging that
developed countries committing to
emissions reductions may engage in
emissions trading at some future time.
-Only the article is binding on the
parties.
Disarray among EU countries prevented
them from holding out for their 15-percent
emissions reduction target
The French Environment
Minister told the press she would rather have
no protocol than a flawed one, but the UK,_
the Netherlands, and the Luxembourg
presidency pressed hard for a lowering of
the EU emissions target from 15 percent to a
more feasible 9 percent.
-The creation of an Asia-Pacific
emissions trading regime-comprising
Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand,
Russia, and the US reassured the
EU that the non-EU developed
countries would not interfere with the
EU burden-sharing scheme, which was
vital to EU acceptance of the accord.
The lack of solidarity among the Group of
77 developing countries also facilitated
compromise. Argentina, Chile, Kiribati,
Mexico, Nauru, Samoa, Seychelles, and
South Korea helped stymie efforts China,
India, and Saudi Arabia to obstruct the talks,
In addition,
Brazil-which normally would have
supported China and India-remained silent
because the US agreed to incorporate the
Brazilian proposal for a Clean Development
Mechanism into the Protocol.
-Indonesia, the Philippines, and
Sri Lanka helped by calling for a
compromise.
 Next Steps From Kyoto
Coordinated follow-up has yet to appear,
but official reactions and plans for the next
steps are beginning to emerge. The UK has
listed climate policy as a priority for its
EU presidency, even though the Labor
Government has lost credibility by keeping
coal mines open and stalling further natural
gas substitution, according to press reports.
EU Environment Commissioner
Bjerregaard told Danish journalists that
she would put the "highest possible
political pressure" on the US to ratify
the protocol.
Japan has moved quickly to organize a
Cabinet-level task force to implement the
protocol, including drafting new legislation
on energy-saving measures, according to
press reports. Following the Kyoto
conference, Toyota announced it will
increase production of direct-injection
gasoline engines and its low-emission
hybrid car that operates with electric and
gasoline motors.
US agreement at Kyoto to the Clean
Development Mechanism has earned
goodwill among developing countries.
African governments were pleasantly
surprised at the "flexibility and creativity"
of US policy, although South Africa would
have preferred to fine tune the World Bank's
Global Environment Facility rather than
create a new mechanis
- Malaysia commended the US and
wants to know more about how
emissions trading will work
Indonesia-the new chair of the Group
of 77 developing countries-appears
open to emissions-reducing investments
by Western firms.
China and India, however, continue to
criticize US efforts to harness their carbon
emissions. The Chinese media say Beijing
will not consider a cap on emissions for at
least 50 years. India's Kyoto delegates last
month misled the New Delhi press by
saying they "virtually" thwarted adoption
of emissions trading, but they failed to
mention that the protocol, at Chairman
Estrada's insistence, provides for emissions
trading.
there will be no
change in India's hardline policy until
after a new government comes to power
in March.
 General Areas of Logging Concessions in Cambodio
Tonle
Sap
Kracheh
Pouthisat W
Kaj ~- Bunma
Cl
/?i ;~/ Z. Cham
Kampong
L ~. Spoe Phnum Pen
NOM \ Prey I
Kaoh~Kong PH
PENH K da Veng
Current and pending forest concessions
Protected areas or national parks
- - Province boundary
0 50 100 Kilometers
0 50
Boundary representation Is
not necessady authoritstNe.
 Malaysia Not Giving Up on Troubled
Dam Project
initial site development is continuing for the
Bakun Hydroelectric Power Project in
Sarawak, despite the government's
announcement in October that the project
would be deferred because of the financial
crisis. Press reports say roads, support
facilities, and water diversion tunnels for
the dam will be completed by late spring.
Environmentalists have called the
$5 billion project destructive, and financial
analysts say it is economically unviable.
Environmental NGOs have warned that
massive damage would result from flooding
the approximately 173,000 acres of rain-
forest, which supports various protected
species of fish, birds, mammals, and plants.
- The dam would displace as many as
10,000 natives, according to one
environmental group.
- Environmental groups have taken the
unprecedented step of warning potential
investors that the economics of the dam
are wrong and probably would produce
lower-than-expected rates of return.
The government decision to defer
the dam and its growing cost make
its targeted completion date of 2003
unlikely. A dispute over cost overruns
and subcontractors in August forced
Ekran-the main local contractor-to drop a
Swiss/Swedish/Brazilian consortium that
was responsible for completing the dam.
- The Finance Ministry last month took
control of the project, promising the
government will assume all financial
liabilities.
Malaysia plans to double the amount of
electricity generated by burning coal by
2000 to cover its growing energy needs in
the near term, but it views hydroelectric
power from Bakun as im ortant in the long
term. the dam project
remains a favorite project of Mahathir and
that he views it as a key step in Malaysia's
development. The government will have to
decide in the spring whether to renew
funding for the project. after the initial site
preparation is complete.
 Egypt: First Steps Toward Greening
Nile River
water is flowing only about 3 km into the
Sinai through the North Sinai Canal despite
the project's official opening to great fan-
fare in late October. The section of canal
between the Nile and the Suez Canal,
called the Al Salaam, is complete and
operational, but the section that transits the
Sinai, known as the Shaykh Jabar, is still
under construction.
- Partially completed segments
and pumping stations of Shaykh
F-extend nearly 60 km
- Unfinished canal check stations and
major portions of the trough further
stem the eastward flow of water.
The Al Salaam um station--consisting of
four tunnels appears
to be operations where it passes under the
Suez Canal.
- Adjacent support facilities are still
under construction.
The entire North Sinai Canal project is
intended eventually to transform about
182,000 hectares of desert into arable land
and to create 27 villages for 500,000 to
one million Egyptians.
-The project began in 1993 and is
expected to be completed by 2004, but
the Ministry of Antiquities has halted
operations frequently when the builders
have unearthed artifacts.
President Mubarak publicly has said the
importance of the project is second only to
the New Valley Canal effort. Cairo began
construction on the New Valley Canal in
January to divert water from the Nile at.
Lake Nasser into to the Western Desert.
-The Canal is intended to create up to
570,000 hectares of arable land for
resettling as many as 7 million people.
Potential Military Impact
The Sinai's north coast is a historic invasion
route. In the event of military action, the
large, open canal would serve as an antitank
ditch, forcing troops to divert either north or
south.
-Where the North Sinai Highway
crosses over the Canal would be a
major chokepoint~
Increased irrigation and a network of
smaller irrigation canals eventually will
create larger areas of wet, cultivated land
that could impede heavy, tracked vehicles.
 Commercial development including
power plants and power transmission lines,
water treatment facilities, factories and
residences-would further hamper the east-
west movement of military forces
 et
Philippines Concerned About
El Niflo-Induced Drought
The government is scrambling to mitigate -
the effects of a severe water shortage
projected to last another five months.
authorities are particularly
concerned about the availability of domestic
water supplies in selected areas.
- Officials began rationing water in
Manila in December, in an effort to
reduce usage by about 20 percent, and
the chief of police threatened to arrest
anyone wasting water.
- President Ramos has established
an El Niflo task force and slated
$63 million for relief efforts.
Government estimates indicate 50 of the
country's 73 provinces have experienced a
50-percent drop in rainfall, with only four
recording "near normal" precipitation.
The shortages will reduce crop produc-
tion-which accounts for about 20 percent
of GNP.
- Anticipating shortfalls, the government
has ordered 350,000 tons of rice from
Vietnam, Cambodia, and China,
according to press reports.
The combination of the drought and the
financial crisis in the region has prompted
the government to revise its GNP target for
next year from 6.5 percent to 4.5 percent and
raise its inflation forecast for next year from
5.2 percent to 7.0 percent
 Percentage of Normal Precipitation
in the Philippines, November 1997[
~.?ab
~P .
Percent
40 Less than 25
25 to 50
~} 50 to 75
.> More than 75
? No data available
0 150.t41ometers
0 150 Miles
h ed 744760 (800715) 12-97
 Malawi and Mozambique Preparing
To Weather El Nino
predicts the El Nino effect will cause
drought conditions in southern Malawi and
southern and central Mozambique during the
next six months. Neither country is likely to
experience a drought-related humanitarian
crisis, however, because each has made
some preparations, and donors are aware of
the potential problem.
Malawi Braces for Impact
Malawi's farmers appear to be switching
from maize-which is particularly
vulnerable to dry spells to other crops, and
the government is giving them drought
mitigation advice
production of root crops and cassava
excellent drought-resistant plants-has
increased markedly since the 1994-95 crop
year.
farmers in the
past year have earned $35 million from
cash crops, particularly tobacco, which
will enable them to buy imported grain.
Subsistence farmers-a significant portion
of the population are particularly
vulnerable. More than 50 percent of
Malawian households typically run short of
cereals four to six months before the next
harvest.
less than
1 percent of Malawi's food crops are
irrigated.
Mozambique Better Positioned
the area of
Mozambique north of the Zambezi River
consistently has produced large food
surpluses and should be able to make up for
any crop losses farther south. Even in years
of severe drought elsewhere, maize from this
area has been exported regionally.
- Grain production in the center and
north of the country has increased in
recent years-press reports say the
grain harvest last year was the highest
in 20 years-as a result of Mozambican
refugees returning from Zambia and
Malawi to work their farms.
Maputo appears to be taking proactive
drought measures. According to press
reports, NGOs and the government launched
a publicity campaign to get farmers to
expand cultivation and to plant drought-
resistant crops.
- Other press reports say the National
Water Directorate has ordered the main
dams to increase water holdings for
future use.
- Mozambique's -dilapidated transporta-
tion infrastructure may pose challenges
to food distribution, but these problems
are surmountable.
 Area of Anticipated Drought Due to El Nina
Malawi: Accustomed to Aid
Malawi historically has been depen ent on aid, and
we expect Lilongwe to request aid no matter how
slight the impact of El Nino.
Regional Crop Calendar for Southern Africa
 Selected International Environment-Related Meetings, 1998
21-22 January
G-7/8 Environment Ministers Meeting
Washington
on Environmental Enforcement
11-13 February
Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPS) Working
Geneva
Group on Strategies
23-27 February
Fourth Conference of Parties to the
Basel Convention on Hazardous Waste
19-20 March
WTO Committee on Trade and Environment
TBD
23 March
EU Environment Ministers Meeting
Brussels
28 March
Summit of the Americas
Santiago
2-3 April
OECD Environment Ministerial
TBD
4-15 May
Conference of Parties to the
Bratislava
Convention on Biodiversity
18-22 May
Eighth Meeting of Parties to the UN
TBD
Convention on the Law of the Sea
22 May-30 September
1998 World Exposition (EXPO `98)
Lisbon
"The Oceans: A Heritage for the Future"
23-25 June
Fourth Environment-for-Europe Ministerial
Aarhus, Denmark
30 June -
First Global POPs Negotiating Session
Geneva
June-August
Intergovernmental Forum on Forests
TBD
July
Independent World Commission
Lisbon
on Oceans
24 August-4 September
Second Conference of Parties to the
Dakar
Convention to Combat Desertification
1-3 September
APEC Senior Officials Meeting on Environment
Singapore
November
Tenth Conference of Parties to the
Cairo
Montreal Protocol
361211PM61.98
nc