NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 26 OCTOBER 1985

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005500162
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 25
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00450
• Publication Date: October 26, 1985

Director of
Central
Intelligence
F1
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
26 October 1985
APPROVED FOR RELEASE^ DATE:
07-22-2010
Top Bell.. et
CPAS WO 8 -990
i1
Copy 535
 Jamaica: IMF Program in Jeopardy
Cuba-Latin America: Demonstrations Fizzle
South Africa: White Concerns Growing
Brazil: Sarney Administration Performing Well
 0I?
 Prime Minister Seaga's unwillingness to impose further IMF
austerity measures threatens Jamaica's IMF program even as the
declining economy helps opposition leader Michael Manley's
political fortunes.
missed September targets under its $118 million IMF program and
that the Fund may not grant a waiver. Seaga, fearing a violent public
reaction, told the IMF that he would not institute price hikes for food
and petroleum or other belt-tightening required under the program.
Instead, he wants to trv to limit mer imports to strengthen
Jamaica's finances.
Seaga expects the economy to contract 6 percent in the fiscal year
ending March 1986. Despite recent debt reschedulings by the Paris
and London clubs of creditors, Jamaica's
next fiscal year will reach $200 million,
Recent polls show that Jamaica's economic troubles have increased
popular support for Manley's People's National Party. According to
the polls, the party would win easily if an election were called today.
Comment: Jamalca's grim economic outlook and insistence by
donors and creditors on a valid IMF program as a prerequisite to new
funds, give Seaga little choice but to begin negotiations for a new
program should the current accord collapse. The talks are likely to be
protracted, but, even if he secures another accord quickly, low world
demand-particularly for bauxite/alumina. Jamaica's primary
handling any sporadic violence.
Regardless of the outcome of IMF talks, the weakening economy is
likely to continue to diminish Seaga's popularity, significantly aid
Manley's efforts to force early elections, and further alienate the
influential business community. Unless widespread social unrest
develops, however, Seaga is unlikely to hold national elections soon.
Security forces, although hurt by austerity, probably are capable of
 CUBA-
LATIN AMERICA:
Havana's effort this week to organize an International day of
protest In Latin America against foreign debt proved to be an
embarrassing failure for the regime.
he Communist-
organized demonstration on Wednesday in ell was crippled
by poor weather and an agreement with the government by some
IMF policies
Comment: The poor turnouts are a setback for Castro, in view of his
highly publicized efforts to take the lead on the issue by sponsoring
numerous international conferences on debt and by pressing the
issue in international forums. Even before the day of protests, Castro
took heavy criticism from other Latin American statesmen for his
radical position, and he failed to secure support for a plan to combat
a nationwide work stoppage of 10 minutes
spent scarce resources to finance attendance at the Cuban-
sponsored conferences and to ensure public protests in Latin
Despite Cuba's own serious domestic economic problems, Havana
 V v
a
 0
 Continued disturbances in Lahore and the threat of new opposition
activity may portend increasing trouble for the martial law regime as
Pakistan moves toward civilian rule. Doctors in Lahore are violently
protesting the Punjab provincial government's decision to allot scarce
jobs in public hospitals using a test that questions physicians on Islam
and other nonmedical subjects. Rival student factions there have
clashed over the death of a student leader. The government has
arrested opposition politicans in Lahore and Karachi to forestall
meeting:, protesting recent constitutional reforms that grant immunity
to martial law administrators and the continued detention of
opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.
Comment: Provincial authorities have been unable to resolve the
protests of the doctors in Lahore-the opinion maker for Pakistan's
most influential province. The unrest may develop into a wider protest
against government actions-including Islamization and the
constitutional changes-particularly if the volatile student population
joins in. President Zia almost certainly is worried that such
disturbances will disrupt the transition to civilian government, and he
is likely to intervene to calm the situation when he returns to Pakistan
 Cairo is continuing efforts to reduce domestic tensions caused by the
US interception of an E tian plane but it will take time for public
resentment to cool. Egyptian officials
choose to view the statement made in Cairo this week by the US
Deputy Secretary of State as the "equivalent of an apology" and
believe the crisis is over. Egypt's Information Minister has told the
press to soften attacks on the US, but opposition papers are still
taking a strident line. Only minor anti-US incidents have been
reoorted since roots last SaturdavF_
Comment: President Mubarak's trip to Jordan Thursday in part was
probably an attempt to show strong leadership and to refocus
Egyptian public attention on the peace process. Nevertheless,
opposition leaders and Islamic fundamentalists will probably continue
potential for anti-US outbursts remains high
6
 KI&
USSR: Sending Signals on Jewish Emigration
The chart entitled "USSR: Jewish Emigration in 1985" that appeared
in the Daily on 25 October should have read "Visas Issued," not
6
 *)v
 - South African security forces have detained over 50 nonwhites in
crackdown in Cape Town ... ANC probably responsible for
- Former Sudanese Vice President Tayyib, others go on trial for
treason today for role in airlift of Ethiopian Jews last year ... US
- Tanzanian presidential elections to be held Sunday ... sole
candidate Vice President Mwinyi expected to receive large vote
despite lackluster reputation . . . first change of leadership since
President Nyerere led country to independence in 1961.
- SWAPO guerrillas probably responsible for bombing gas station in
Namibia's eastern Caprivi Strip earlier this week ... first guerrilla
- President Suazo failed in latest legislative maneuver to postpone
Honduran election scheduled for 24 November ... wants to
extend own term for two years ... armed forces taking active role
 State of
emergency
extended port Alfred
Cape Town; 25 October sport
. ` Elizabeth
 The unrest of the past 14 months has started to affect the white
community directly. It the violence continues to intensify and
involves more white civilians, as is likely, the government
probably will respond with a show of force that will further swell
the ranks of urban blacks unwilling to settle for Pretoria's offers
of limited reform. Yesterday, President Botha extended the _Iopa state of emergency to cover the major towns of Cape
Province.
During the past year, most of the violence has occurred in areas well
away from whites. Government-controlled television newscasts have
not given the full picture of the unrest that has claimed almost
800 lives. Government warnings or lack of reader interest also led
some white newspapers to play down the unrest until recently.
Many whites had a rude awakening as the violence spilled recently
into white business and residential areas. White pedestrians, as well
as white-owned cars and shops, have been attacked at random in
downtown Johannesburg and Cape Town. Nonwhite militants appear
to be responding in kind to the arbitrary violence that increasingly has
Whites undoubtedly are concerned as well by the rising casualties
among white security personnel as nonwhite mobs and individuals
Increasingly use knives, guns, and grenades. Arson attacks, usually
carried out with gasoline bombs, also are spreading in white and
Pretoria has tried to curb whites who have sought their own solutions
to the unrest. The government recently blocked efforts by liberal
white students and clerics to follow the example of progressive white
politicians, businessmen, journalists, and academics who have held
talks with African National Congress officials in Zambia this year.
Police have harassed both blacks and whites in at least one
community-Port Alfred in Cape Province-for successfully
negotiating a fragile modus vivendi apparently without Pretoria's
approval.
According to press reports, many whites are leaving the country to
escape the violence, the ailing economy, or the draft-the latter
especially because resident foreigners can be conscripted under a
 law introduced late last year. Foreign firms are actively recruiting
professionals for positions abroad. The magnitude of this trend is not
yet known; government statistics indicate more people immigrated to
South Africa than left the country in the first quarter of the year. Most
whites, moreover, lack the skills or means-especially given the
current low value of the South African rand-to settle in another
country without a major reduction in their standard of living
White vigilante attacks are likely to become more common. The white
populace has long been heavily armed, and gun dealers are reporting
strong sales. Already there have been scattered incidents involving
white civilians firing on nonwhite looters, attackers, or passers-by.
unlikely to stifle the unrest. Attacks against whites will continue and
perhaps increase. At some point the government is likely to respond
to rising white concerns-either overnight or step by step-with more
If Pretoria uses unbridled force to stop the unrest, its limited reforms
will have far less chance of calming black anger over the long term.
 President Sarney In his first six months In office has guided
Brazil through a smooth transition to civilian government
following 20 years of military rule. No longer regarded as a stand-
in for the late President-elect Neves, Sarney is now setting his
own policy course and apparently beginning to install his cabinet
choices. His major challenges in the coming year probably will
be rising inflation and a huge burden of foreign debt, butte are
Sarney has Improved his political standing and kept his opponents off
balance by taking on popular issues; he has instituted direct
presidential elections, legalized banned political parties, and publicly
condemned austerity measures prescribed by the IMF. His moves
have preempted prominent leftist politicians, particularly Governor
Brizola of Rio de Janeiro, who has refrained from attacking Sarney yet
remains a focal point for potential opposition.
The administration has successfully controlled labor so far through
negotiations and moderate increases in real wages. The two major
labor confederations, however, have agreed to cooperate in
bargaining with employers and may launch a general strike in early
November to demand additional concessions.
The armed forces solidly back the President. Sarney has avoided the
kind of military opposition surfacing in Argentina by forgoing drastic'
cuts in the military budget and vowing to limit investigations into past
abuses of human rights. He has brokered compromises between
Congress and the armed forces on sensitive military-related
 The relaxation of fiscal and monetary policies has contributed to a
resurgence of domestic demand, helped economic growth reach
6 percent, and improved living standards this year. But at the same
time the policies are raising borrowing requirements in the public
sector and domestic credit as a percentage of GNP to record levels.
Government price controls have been only partially effective; inflation
this year probably will substantially exceed last year's rate of
Brasilia probably will face growing economic disorder early next year,
when Inflation Is likely to surge following expected easing of price
controls. A sharp jump in prices probably will damp the confidence of
domestic business and further sour relations with foreign creditors. At
worst, a substantial contraction of exports would render Brazil unable
The President will retain sufficient political support to stay in office
over the next year, even with recurring economic difficulties. Brizola
and other leftists favor a direct presidential election in 1986, but the
military and most civilian political groups would be reluctant to
remove Sarney before the constituent assembly scheduled to
 M. `v