NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 2 JANUARY 1982

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005065421
• Release Decision: IPPUB U
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00446
• Publication Date: January 2, 1982

Director of
Central
p ,~ Intelligence
Top Secret
 I Poland: Regime Concerns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
Ghana: Coup Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Portugal: Possible Government Dismissal . . . . . . . . . 2
3
Chad : Insurgent Gains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Saudi Arabia - Libya: Diplomatic Relations Resumed . . . 5
India-Italy: Interest in AWACS Project . . . . . . . . . 5
France: Reactivation of Nuclear Test Site . . . . . . . . 6
Algeria: Role of the Private Sector . . . . .. . . . . . . 6
Special Analysis
10 Ethiopia - Libya - South Yemen: Close Cooperation . . . . 7
2 January 1982
 POLAND: Regime Concerns
The regime continues its efforts to demonstrate a return to
order and normality but remains worried about potential centers of
I resistance. At the same time, the government seems intent on using
the force of martial law to push through steep retail price increases.
/ Soviet military officials in Poland continue to regard the situation
as quiet, and more Soviet officers who arrived in early December
are returning home. Moscow, meanwhile, is maintaining a barrage of
l media criticism of US economic sanctions, but appears anxious to
enforced furlough since before Christmas.
Warsaw radio claimed on Thursday that steel mills
and other heavy industrial plants are working at full
capacity for the first time since the imposition of
martial law, but admitted that the situation is "still
/ difficult" in the Baltic ports. The authorities clearly
0/ are nervous about the prospective return to work on
Monday of militant shipyard workers who have been on
~ could become staging grounds for demonstrations.
/0 university students. It obviously fears the universities
The government is opening most schools next week
but has delayed for perhaps a month the return of younger
pressed to sign loyalty oaths.
language and Marxism-Leninism. A Western diplomat as-
serts that factory directors are being instructed to
dissolve Solidarity chapters and that workers are being
Abandoning a concession granted last February, the
Military Council has decided that all Polish university
students will have to take compulsory courses in Russian
2 January 1982
 Pope Supports Solidarity
establishing it.
Pope John Paul II yesterday made his strongest
ty statement to date in support of Solidarity in extempo-
raneous remarks at the end of his New Year's Day message.
He called free trade unions a basic right and described
Z Solidarity as an integral part of Polish traditions.
The Pope in effect asserted that the union's right to
exist is based on much more than the Gdansk agreement
martial law restrictions.
In an effort to avoid a complete breakdown in the
market supply situation, the government has announced
proposed price. increases ranging from 300 to 400 percent
on a wide assortment of goods including meat, milk, coal,
17 "will utilities. The date and exact amount of the hikes
will be decided after a two-week period of public dis-
cussions--which are virtually impossible under current
The price increases would help restore badly needed
equilibrium to domestic consumer markets, which in the
past year felt the impact of a more than 20 percent hike
in wages and a decline in the availability of goods.
7 They also would curb hoarding and speculation--including
~1-private purchases of farm produce--and help ease shortages,
but at significant cost to the standard of living of
Polish consumers. The government's promised offsetting
compensation is likely to help only those in the lower
income groups.
Soviet Activity
TASS on Thursday quoted a high Soviet Central Com-
mittee official as stating that disarmament issues are
the key questions for 1982 and that the USSR still favors
2 January 1982
 constructive dialogue, including a US-Soviet summit. An
official of the USA Institute, speaking to US diplomats
the same day, urged that the two countries concentrate
on "strategic" issues and overlook "peripheral" matters
like Poland.
An article in Pravda yesterday by the head of the
USA Institute warned that the Polish crisis could lead
to a US-Soviet military confrontation. The primary pur-
pose of the article was probably to heighten West European
apprehension over the implications of US economic sanc-
tions, but the commentary also argued implicitly for a
mndPrat-e Soviet resnnnse to the measures-
2 January 1982
 GHANA: Coup Uncertainty
The postcoup situation in Accra remains confused, volatile
3 and potentiaZZy ripe for another u heavaZ because of uncertainty
as toz.hoi s Zh
n c ".U& t.
Sporadic fighting and looting continued in Accra two
days after former head of state Jerry Rawlings began a
coup. Forces loyal to Rawlings apparently cnn all
major military installations in the capital.
Radio Accra continues to broadcast in the name of
Rawlings' Provisional Military Council, whose makeup
still has not been revealed. None of the approximately
2,700 Americans in Ghana have been harmed, and no threats
have been made against them.
Rawlings has not been heard from directly since his
coup announcement Thursday, and there are rumors that he
has been wounded. President Limann is still at large and
may be hidin
somewher
t
id
'
g
e ou
s
e the capital
.
Limann appealed on Thursday to several West African
states for military aid. Unsuccessful counterattacks have
3 been reported in two provincial cities by troops loyal to
Limann, who so far has refused to give up power.
Rawlings began his second try for power with minimal
support and apparently counted on gathering momentum as
the coup progressed. He headed a short-lived populist
military regime in 1979 and blames Limann's two-year-old
3 government for further ruining Ghana's economy. Rawlings
has appealed for a revolution to transform Ghana's social
and economic order, but there has been no outncuring
f
o
popular support as yet.
In retirement, Rawlings kept loose contacts with Libya
and Cuba and counted several radicals among his advisers.
If it survives, his government may seek radical solutions
3 to Ghana's debilitating economic problems. There is no
evidence of foreign involvement in the coup.
If the conditions of near-anarchy continue, Army
elements loyal to neither Rawlings nor Limann may stage
another coup. Whatever government that emerges will face
severe problems trying to put Ghana's house back in order
and reestablishing a sense of nati
l
ona
purpose
.
2 January 1982
 There are signs that President Eanes is considering dismissal
of Prime Minister Balsemao's government, a move that would block
constitutional revisions designed to cut the President's influence
over the military.
Presidential advisers and Revolutionary Council
members Melo Antunes and Vasco Lourenco, moreover, have
publicly advocated dismissal of the government. Neither
L_. 1.-__ __- ?
If Eanes dismisses the government, he would be sup-
ported only by the Communist Party and leftists outside
the Socialist Party who oppose the government's proposed
constitutional revisions. All the democratic parties
would bitterly oppose Eanes' action, which they would
see as a threat to the consolidation of democracy in
Portugal.
New elections would almost certainly be held because
the President and the Democratic Alliance, which holds a
parliamentary majority, would find it extremely difficult
to agree on a successor to Balsemao. Deputy Prime Min-
ister and Defense Minister Freitas do Amaral reportedly
will make a television address Monday in an effort to
head off any move by Eanes.
2
January 1982
 3
2 January 1982
 C5 CHAD: Insurgent Gains
Insurgent leader Habre's forces are closing on Ati--the only
government stronghold between them and N'Djamena--and nrosnects for
a negotiated settlement are rapidly diminishing.
Rebel reconnaissance units reportedly have already
reached the outskirts of Ati. Last week, the insurgents
captured Oum Hadjer, where the government had hoped to
stop their westward drive, and they now may try to sur-
round Ati or bypass it to avoid clashing with the 1,000
OAU troops there.
Habre is angry at President Goukouni's refusal to
consider reconciliation, and the rebel leader may be en-
couraged by recent military successes to seek a military
solution. If he continues fighting in an effort to seize
power, the feeble coalition government may break up, and
civil war could resume. If a cease-fire were somehow
arranged, however, Habre would use his recent territorial
gains to bargain for a role in the government.
A move to bring Habre back into the leadership--still
only a remote possibility--would be as dangerous as keep-
ing him out. He probably would not accept a subordinate
position for long if he again concluded that the prospects
were good for taking control. The former defense minister
was responsible for the last round of civil war in 1980,
when he mounted an unsuccessful coup against the regime
that resulted in Libya's intervention on Goukouni's
behalf.
4
2 January 1982
 because of the limited time it can remain airborne,
additional US sanctions against it.
hopes that a resumption of ties will improve its stand-
ing in the Arab world and perhaps reduce the chances of
SAUDI ARABIA - LIBYA: Diplomatic Relations Resumed
Saudi Arabia's decision to resume diplomatic ties
with Libya now--after a 14-month break--is part of Riyadh's
overall strategy to unite the Arabs against Israel's
annexation of the Golan Heights. Saudi leaders probably
hope that the rapprochement with Libya will set an exam-
ple for others--particularly Syria and Iraq--to patch up
/ their own differences and enable the Arabs to exploit
the current strain in US-Israeli relations. Riyadh
almost certainly will shy away from a close relationship
with Tripoli soon, however, because the Saudi royal
family distrusts Libyan leader Qadhafi. Libya probably
visit to Italy, he expressed interest in Aeritalia's
program to develop a mini-AWACS for its G222 transport.
INDIA-ITALY: Interest in AWACS Project
India is attempting to obtain an airborne warning
and control system in response to what it regards as a
growing threat from Pakistan's impending acquisition of
F-16 fighters. During Air Chief Marshal Singh's recent
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before the mid-1980s, but the increased interest in the
program--the Iraqis also are considering it--could in-
crease the Italian motivation to develop a successful
system. The choice of aircraft, however, appears poor
2 January 1982
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