AFRICA REVIEW

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005302073
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 8, 2009
• Case Number: F-2007-00156
• Publication Date: February 16, 1990

APPROVED FOR RELEASED
DATE: 09-02-2009
 Liberia: Doe Grapples With
Dissident Incursion
Liberian President Doe's hapless Army remains unable
to suppress a seven-week-old tribally based insurrection
in Nimba County in northern Liberia, the effects of
which could further weaken his regime. The
insurrection was spearheaded by a group of about 100 to
150 dissidents who-with some support from Libya and
Burkina-infiltrated through Ivory Coast late last year
intending to mount a coup. Although government
troops captured plotters found in Monrovia, the rebels
have gained the support of some 200 fellow tribesmen
in Nimba. Military indiscipline and tactical and logistic
problems have severely hampered government efforts to
counter the rebels' hit-and-run attacks. Meanwhile,
Army and rebel atrocities so far have driven an
estimated 40 percent of the county's population into
neighboring Ivory Coast and Guinea
Although the fighting has not threatened the President's
immediate hold on power, security in northern Liberia
probably will remain unstable for at least the next
several months, aggravating ethnic animosities, regional
tensions, and US-Liberian relations. The brutality and
ethnic character of many of the Army's atrocities are
likely to deepen domestic opposition to Doe's regime-
especially as more inexperienced troops are sent to the
area-and encourage more Nimba residents to flee or
join the dissidents. The Army's ineffectiveness
probably will enable the dissidents to continue to harass
government forces and civilians for as long as their will
and supplies hold out. The unwillingness of Liberian
refugees to return home without credible guarantees of
safety is likely to cause Ivory Coast and Guinea to
renew public criticism of Liberia's mishandling of the
insurrection. Doe may try to deflect criticism by
blaming Washington for not offering lethal military
Dissident Leader
Charles Taylor
The Incursion and Dissident Challenge
In late December, from 100 to 150 Liberian dissidents
-members of one of several anti-Doe exile groups-
entered Liberia from Ivory Coast intending to mount a
coup against the Doe government. Although the
plotters-apparently the recipients of modest Libyan
training and funding-passed through Ivory Coast
undetected from their safehaven in Burkina, their
scheme was ill-planned and ill-executed. They were
poorly armed and some apparently hoped to rendezvous
in Monrovia and seize weapons from a government
armory. The dissidents include many former Liberian
Seerrt
AL.A AR 90-005
/6 February 1990
 Chronology of Selected Events
26 December 1989 Dissidents who infiltrated from Ivory Coast capture Nimbi County towns of Butlo, on
Ivorian border, and Knetu
27 December Military placed on alert, troops dispatched to Nimba under command of General Smith.
Dissidents attack government forces in Bahn.
30 December Doe broadcasts first public statement about coup attempt, assuring listeners "all is
well."
31 December Fighting begins at Kahn ple. Dissidents capture resupply convoy with substantial
quantities of arms and munitions.
l coops rln.cr Iu.Nhw'aY between Sanniyuellic and Yekepa.
1 January 1990 Fighting in Kahnple continues. Charles Taylor, in BBC interview, claims to command
rebels, calls for Liberians to join the struggle to remove the Doe government. Butlo
_ _rcrulistred by.iniliturti.
2 January Kahnple recaptured by military, but hit-and-run incidents continue throughout Nimba,
4 January Doe publicly indicts Ivory Coast for harboring Liberian dissidents and allowing its
territory to be used as a "springboard" for rebel incursions; warns we know how to
cross borders."
6January Ivorian President Ilouphnuct-Boigny denies Doe's allegations of support for rebels,
stresses humanitarian nature of Abidjan's policy ofallowing presence of unarmed exiles.
10 January Ivortan Foreign Minister makes demurrche informing Doe that Ivory Coast would defend
its territory against incursions, but stresses commitment to peace.
Captured dissidents displayed at pres.y conference; claim Libyan and Burkinabe support.
military officers and were organized by Charles Taylor, become available. Although the rebels probably have
a former Liberian official and a fugitive from US lost a large number of men, they still are able to launch
justice, under the banner of his National Patriotic Front hit-and-run attacks, inflicting casualties, capturing
of Libcria government weapons and ammunition and keeping the
Armed Forces of Liberia (AFL) on the defensive. The
Although government troops quickly captured the few military has brought in reinforcements (there are now
plotters who reached Monrovia, fighting in northern between 400 and 500 troops in Nimba) and evacuated
Liberia's Nimba County-home of the dissidents' border villages in an effort to isolate rebel forcesF_
 E
Chronology of Selected Events
13 January Heavy fighting at Zali, on border with Ivory Coast.
15 January Fighting moves farther south, incidents reported at Bleivali.
refugees in Guinea and Ivory Coast exceed 50,000. Doe
threatens publicly to execute soldiers who harm civilians.
24 January Rebels retake Kahnple and seize weapons, also attack AFL troops near Zogowe.
General Craig arrives in Nimba County to take command of the anti-insurgency force.
26 January AFL retakes Kahnple.
29 January Doe accuses US of focusing on military abuses rather than the "Libyan-backed
incursion."
Guinean President Conte and Sierra Leone's President Momoh meet with Doe in
Monrovia to urge restraint. Offer expressions of solidarity but refuse to join Doe in
blaming Ivory Coast.
Liberian refugee count in Guinea may exceed 80,000, with another 60,000 estimated in
the ivory Coast.
The AFL's Poor Performance
We believe the inability of military leaders to control
their troops has been a key factor in the government's
failure to restore order in Nimba County, and has
Military Indiscipline,
operational ineffectiveness
contributed to human rights abuses as well as
the inability-or unwillingness-of AFL commanders
to control their troops has contributed to military
atrocities against local tribesmen as have intertribal
Soldiers have refused to obey orders and
Ethnic Tensions. AFL atrocities have fanned deep
hostilities between local Gio tribesmen and members of
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* National Capital
n County seat
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 the dissidents may have killed Krahns and
Mandingos in a deliberate attempt to stir up tribal
animosities. Neighboring Guinea and Ivory Coast
blame the atrocities for the flood of refugees into their
countries. Reports of random killings have diminished
in recent weeks since the AFL evacuated most of the
towns along the Nimba-Ivory Coast border and declared
a dusk-to-dawn curfew for the entire region. Still, the
mostly Gio refugees say they are unwilling to return
home because they fear more military violence as well
as further ethnic score-settling by civilians
Tactical and Logistic Difficulties. The rebels' ability to
conduct ambushes in Nimba's thickly forested areas has
confounded and demoralized AFL troops, who are
almost entirely lacking in counterinsurgency training,
and given the rebels a clear tactical advantage. The
military's strategy of retaking towns only to abandon
them to the insurgents at nightfall has enabled relatively
small groups of rebels to tie down large numbers of
soldiers over extended periods. The soldiers' refusal to
leave the main roads to pursue their attackers, because
the fear the rebels'
resupply to Nimba is provided by a twice daily run by a
Cessna 208 carrying troops, arms, and ammunition.
Liberian troops in Nimba have exercised poor fire
control and, at the current
rate of usage, they will run out o ammunition soon.
Regional Scapegoating
Doe has tried to deflect domestic criticism of the
Army's mishandling of the Nimba situation by charging
Ivory Coast, Burkina, and Libya with supporting the
insurgents. Citing confessions by captured dissidents,
he has claimed that these countries harbored, financed,
trained, and equipped the rebels. The President's
accusations pushed regional tensions to a flash point in
early January when he asserted that his troops were
prepared to cross the border to battle insurgents
harbored by Ivory Coast. In response, Abidjan warned
that Ivory Coast would defend its boundaries. Even
though tempers have cooled in recent weeks
outside support for the rebels was probably fair]
5 Sri
 unlike his
Responding to International Concerns
The human rights abuses by the military and resulting
after a coup attempt in 1985, Doc this time has tried to
respond to criticism from the United States and
dismissal of oreign accusations of military brutality
Liberia's neighbors.
refugee populations in Guinea and Ivory Coast have As accounts of brutal killings by the military have
made the Doc regime a target of international criticism surfaced, Doc has shifted key military personnel and
and led to relief efforts to assist refugees0 taken other measures to reduce tensions in Nimba.1
 Tackling the Burgeoning Refugee Problem. Monrovia
is concerned about international pressures to reverse the
tide of refugees streaming into neighboring Ivory Coast
and Guinea. Both countries are ill-equipped to handle
large numbers of refugees and have pleaded with Doe to
resolve the situation in Nimba so the refugees can return
 E
Ivorian officials estimate
that during January some 40,000 to 60,000 refugees
crowded into small Ivorian border villages between
Toulcpleu and Dananc. The isolation of Guinea's
border areas has severely hampered accurate refugee
counts in that country, but local officials and. an
international relief agency estimate that roughly 80,000
Liberians from Nimba have fled to Guinean border
areas. Ivorian and Guinean officials have appealed
successfully to the international community for
assistance, but so far only a trickle of relief goods has
reached the refugees, Based
on our observations in similar situations, organizational
and logistic problems are likely to delay the delivery of
the prospect for serious food shortages.
Monrovia has tried to coax Liberian refugees back
home, but has few resources to commit to the effort.
Doe has commissioned the Liberian National Disaster
Relief Committee, a poorly organized, normally
dormant group, to provide food and basic government
services as AFL troops clear parts of Nimba from
threats of rebel attack, and Liberian legislators and other
officials from Nimba have agreed to try to convince the
refugees that it is safe to return. Meanwhile, the
 International Red Cross has been granted access to
Nimba and has distributed limited quantities of rice,
cooking oil, and other emergency supplies.
President Still in Control ... For Now
The fighting in Nimba has not yet threatened the
President's hold on power. Doe's public appearances in
recent weeks have helped case popular anxiety about his Outlook
ability to cope with the situation. The major opposition The AFL's ineffectiveness probably will enable the
parties apparently are abiding by public pledges not to Nimba dissidents to continue to harass military troops
 rebels probably can survive by hiding in tiny off-road
hamlets where AFL troops are unlikely to venture.
Rebel operations will be limited not so much by AFL
troop movements as by their small numbers and ability
to capture weapons, ammunition, and other equipment
probably will become even less willing to risk patrolling
outside base camps, leaving the field open for expanded
rebel activity. If rebel threats to attack Krahn towns in
neighboring Grand Jide Count
are
Liberian refugees are unlikely to return to their homes
during the next several months without credible
assurances that the government can protect them and
provide access to economic aid. Relief workers in Ivory
Coast have programmed relief supplies for at least three
months with a likely extension to six months, if
warranted. Still, Guinean and Ivorian impatience with
Monrovia's ineffectiveness is likely to grow and the
criticism is likely to be renewed if the situation drags
Fallout from the dissident incursion is likely to
complicate Doe's already chronic domestic problems.
The President's tribal reconciliation campaign, which
has helped lower resentment of the regime in recent
years, has been set back dramatically by ethnic
animosities fanned during the recent fighting.
become increasingly reluctant to bolster his regime if
the executive mansion continues to fail to provide
adequate materiel and personnel to units fighting in
The economy of Nimba-considered a vital economic
belt is likely to be hard-pressed if the fighting is not
halted soon. Logging operations have been suspended
in much of the county. Some of the recently harvested
rice crop probably has been destroyed or stolen, and if
refugees do not return by April to plant rice, a large
portion of Nimba's annual crop-which accounts for
20 percent of Liberia's rice production-will be lost.
Although iron mining has not been disrupted, a wider
insurgency could jeopardize ore shipments from Yekepa
Doe's difficulties coping with the incursion and its
aftermath are likely to aggravate tensions between
several quarters is likely to mount for Washington to
take stronger steps to express US displeasure with the
Doe regime as reports of human rights abuses continue
to surface, especially if Doe shows signs of