PROSPECTS FOR US MILITARY ACCESS ABROAD A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY APPRAISAL

• Document Type: FOIA
• Keywords: MILITARY
• Keywords: LIBERIA
• Keywords: MILITARY
• Keywords: LIBERIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005281831
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 45
• Document Creation Date: June 22, 2015
• Document Release Date: March 11, 2009
• Case Number: F-2007-00443
• Publication Date: November 1, 1988

Director of
Central
Intelligence
(b) (1)
(b) (3)
A Research Study for
National Intelligence Estimate 4/2-88
This Research Study represents
the views of the Director of Central Intelligence
with the advice and assistance of the
US Intelligence Community.
APPROVED FOR
RELEASED DATE:
09-Dec-2008
--Serefet,
NI AS 88-10003
Alnitomh.r 1 OPP
f
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All material on this page
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Director of
Central
Intelligence
NI RS 88-10003
Prospects for US Military
Access Abroad
A Country-by-Country Appraisal (u)
Information available as of 21 October 1988 was used
in the preparation of this Research Study.
The following intelligence organizations participated
in the preparation of this Research Study:
The Central Intelligence Agency
The Defense Intelligence Agency
The National Security Agency
The Bureau of Intelligence and Research,
Department of State
The Office of Intelligence Support,
Department of the Treasury
also participating:
The Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence,
Department of the Army
The Office of the Director of Naval Intelligence,
Department of the Navy
The Office of the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence,
Department of the Air Force
The Director of Intelligence,
Headquarters, Marine Corps
This Research Study was approved for publication by the
Chairman of the National Intelligence Council.
-Streret.
November 7988
Contents
Discussion
Liberia 29
"M'eci.at-
v -SZtt.st?
Discussion
This study complements NIE 4/2-88, Prospects for
US Military Access Abroad. It appraises the status of
and outlook for US access in each of the foreign
countries where US military forces have any form of
continuing access. The annex to this study addresses
analogous prospects in each of the foreign countries
beyond the Soviet periphery where Soviet forces
currently enjoy such access.
' The descriptions under each country heading of the nature and
extent of US access are skeletal and often incomplete, meant only
to covey a general sense of the significance of US military facilities
and activities in that country
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Africa and Neighboring Islands
Excluding Egypt, which is covered in the section on the Middle
East and South Asia. (u)
26
Figure 4
US Military Access Abroad: Africa and Neighboring Islands
Boundary representation is not
necessarily authoritative.
US Security Assistance to Host Countries a
in Africa and Neighboring Islands
Million US $ b
1978 1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 1987
Liberia
38
43
45
48
56
34
16
, These figures constitute the total of ESF disbursements, FMS b Total amounts less than $500,000 have been ignored.
credits, MAP grants, MASF, and IMET.
"Strre4.
27
714583 (300663) 10.88
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1...e-tiret.
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Liberia
Nature of Access. US access in Liberia is more
extensive than in any other African host country. The
US military forces have access, if needed, to both the
port of Monrovia and Roberts International Airfield.
The airfield can be used for the rapid deployment of
US forces into Africa and the Persian Gulf and was so
used in 1978 when the US military responded to the
insurgency in Zaire's Shaba Region. Liberia also
hosts a number of US communications and intelli-
gence facilities.
Outlook. Continued US access to Liberian facilities is
far from ensured. The Doe regime has lurched from
crisis to crisis. Its political legitimacy is widely ques-
tioned. A military coup could be attempted at any
time with little or no warning. None of Doe's likely
29
successors, whether they be military officers or mem-
bers of the increasingly strident civilian opposition, is
likely to go so far as to revoke US access rights.
However, spurred by growing Liberian nationalism
that has lately included a large anti-American compo-
nent (probably owing to perceived US Government
support of Doe), a successor government might osten-
tatiously stand up to the United States by demanding
additional money in return for continued access.
Actually, the Doe regime is already doing that.
Angered by reductions in US aid, the Liberians
canceled two joint military exercises and refused, for
a time, to let a US military team inspect facilities at
Roberts Airfield. We suspect that Doe would back
away from the confrontation if faced with the com-
plete loss of US support, but there are too many
uncertainties in Liberia's muddled economic and po-
litical situation to invest much confidence in that or
any other assessment. In response to a continuing US
refusal to restore security assistance to its previous
level, or to additional aid cuts in the future, we can
envision the mercurial Doe responding with further
restrictions on US access.
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Annex
37
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