NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005301308
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 27
• Document Creation Date: June 22, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2009
• Case Number: F-2007-00571
• Publication Date: July 26, 1990

APPROVED FOR RELEASE DATE:
09-01-2009
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NATIONAL
INTELLIGENCE
DAILY
Thwiday, 26 July 1990
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CPAS NID 90-173JX
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26 Jul), 1990
 Liberia: Heavy Fighting Resumes
USSR: Supply Problems Squeeze Industry
USSR-India: Relations Warm but Old Issues Persist
Notes UK: Projecting Large Cuts in European Forces
Yugoslavia: Croatia's Serbs Declare Sovereignty 8
USSR: Trying To Control "Illegal" Armed Groups 9
USSR: Military Presence in Angola Criticized
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 Military Situation, Late July 1990
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 LIBERIA: Heavy Fighting Resumes
rebel groups engaged Doe's army from opposite ends of the capital.
Heavy firing occurred yesterday morning between the army and
Prince Johnson's forces at the two bridges leading from Bushrod
Island into the city, in Waterside, and parts of downtown Monrovia.
Fighting was also reported in Sinkor and Congo Town, probably
between Charles Taylor's troops and government soldiers. Although
the fighting downtown abated by afternoon, skirmishes continued
throughout the day in the southern Congo Town suburb. Shooting
also was heard at Spriggs-Payne Airport, and some
]claim Taylor's troops have captured the airfield.
the
army was preparing to attack the mission compound at Elwa and
warned people to leave. After their departure, loud explosions and
heavy firing began.
The army remains suspicious of US intentions and of those seeking
refuge at area churches, schools, and hospitals. A government
communique charged that US officials, including the former
Ambassador, had been involved in helping the rebels. Soldiers
yesterday entered a local hospital and school and chased people out.
Johnson's forces have gained a
number of recruits since arriving on Bushrod Island last week.
Johnson reportedly has set up headquarters there and is passing out
free rice and rallying the residents. He claims he plans to "get" Doe
then deal with Taylor.
Comment: The vise on Monrovia may tighten again today. Johnson's
forces seem to be continuing their strategy of hit-and-run attacks
downtown, followed by a return to Bushrod toward the end of the day
to regroup. Taylor's troops apparently have decided to abandon their
more cautious tactics and bypass Camp Ramrod, risk a rear assault,
and enter the capital along back roads. As the army becomes penned
in on both sides, the behavior of government soldiers toward those
suspected of sympathizing with the insurgents-including displaced
unpredictable.
ofi
 The East German government crisis is moving toward compromise, and
political unification may now take place before December; even if Prime
Minister de Maiziere is forced to lead a minority government, the
all-German elections almost certainly will stay on schedule.
East and West German legislative committees meet today to seek a
compromise on all-German election procedures and the timing of
unification. East Germany's Liberals, who withdrew from de
Maiziere's coalition on Tuesday, and its Social Democrats, who are
threatening to withdraw, have been pressing for unification before
elections so that West German rules would apply. De Maiziere
yesterday hinted he might accept accession before elections,
especially if the 5-percent threshold now required in West Germany
for legislative representation is reduced. Press reports indicate he is in
Comment: A compromise is likely, perhaps at today's meeting; Kohl
is increasingly confident he does not need different election rules to
win in East Germany. He, de Maiziere, and the East German
coalition parties also want to avoid prolonged uncertainty. Several of
the existing proposals would let de Maiziere save face and still retain
some leverage in negotiations with Bonn on the terms of political
union. Accession directly after the unity treaty is ratified could
become increasingly attractive if the East German coalition is
weakened and public confidence ebbs.
Even if no compromise can be reached and de Maiziere's coalition
breaks up, his Christian Democrats probably can build ad hoc
majorities on key issues, although cooperation with the former
Communists could hurt them. Even in opposition, the Social
Democrats and Liberals probably would endorse the unification
treaty-the final major task of the East German legislature-to avoid
voter backlash. Continued East German squabbling could, however,
mar Kohl's envisioned triumphal march toward the all-German
election and his portrayal of himself as "Chancellor of all the
 oT seff,eL
 Increasing supply disruptions are contributing to an absolute decline in
industrial production and are prompting leading enterprise managers to
increase pressure on the central leadership to reassert control over
distribution.
Strikes, ethnic disturbances, transport bottlenecks, environmentally
motivated plant closings, and republic efforts to establish economic
sovereignty have combined to create serious supply backups. Official
statistics show delivery shortfalls in industry during the first six
months of this year are almost double those for the same period in
1989 and became much worse last month. Press reports indicate lack
of input has forced several major factories to halt production
temporarily. Severe shortages of raw materials last month threatened
to close the Magnitogorsk metals plant, the country's largest steel
producer; its customers include key auto and farm equipment
Citing the snowball effect of supply interruptions in the highly
monopolistic'economy, senior managers at some 50 machine-
building enterprises made an urgent public appeal last week for
Moscow to reinstitute fixed quotas for material supplies, They
warned that supplies of mining equipment, turbines, and oil-
processing machinery would be in jeopardy without emergency
measures and that several key industrial facilities have been unable to
sign "a single supply contract" for next year.
Comment: Oil supply arrangements have been coming apart as the
power of the central supply apparatus and ministries has dwindled.
Although Gorbachev has encouraged enterprises to make their own
deals with suppliers, the green light has not been given for a total
decentralization of wholesale trade, and enterprise managers are
unsure how to proceed. Moreover, questions of price reform and the
percentage of total output the central government can requisition are
beginning to paralyze enterprise decision making. The longer Moscow
vacillates on its economic reform program, the longer such confusion
will continue at the enterprise level and the more likely industrial
production will decline further and the economic crisis will grow.
 Indian Prime Minister Singh has reinforced longstanding strong ties by
developing good working relations with his hosts in Moscow this week;
press reports indicate slow but steady progress probably was made on
bilateral military and economic issues.
Gorbachev termed the visit an act of continuity and trust, and both
leaders emphasized the all-encompassing, cooperative nature of
bilateral relations, a theme echoed in the media. A joint statement
focused on the benefits of disarmament, equitable international
economic relations, and the growing interdependence of nations. The
two sides advocated an extension of their Friendship Treaty and
called for a long-term economic cooperation plan, both to be signed
next year during a Gorbachev visit to India
Singh was accompanied by a full complement of defense, economic,
and foreign policy advisers and officials who held extensive
discussions with their Soviet counterparts. According to TASS,
Moscow reiterated its low-key support for India's stand on Kashmir.
Earlier this month, Izvestiya had voiced some concern about the
possible use of nuclear weapons in an Indo-Pakistani war, but the
Soviets did not follow up with public comments during Singh's visit.
Discussions resumed on the ruble-rupee clearing account mechanism
to govern bilateral trade; Moscow and New Delhi had agreed in
principle last month to continue the arrangement.
Comment: Singh accomplished his primary goal of reaffirming the
importance of India's ties to the USSR; neither side had expected
significant movement on military and economic issues. Moscow
almost certainly raised its concerns about Indo-Pakistani tensions,
but it did not press the Indians to be more flexible on Kashmir. The
Soviets probably remain satisfied that war is not imminent and did
 UK Defense Review Projects Large Cuts
Defense Secretary King yesterday outlined sweeping changes in all
British forces over the next five to seven years:
- Military personnel will be cut by 57,000, leaving manpower
strength of approximately 250,000.
- Army-40,000-man cut to about 115,000 troops. British I
Corps cut from four to two divisions. New mobile strategic
reserve division to be formed. New main battle tank order to
be reduced further.
- RAF-14,000-man cut to 75,000 personnel and from 27 to
22 combat squadrons. Both Buccaneer maritime strike
squadrons will be cut as well as all four Phantom fighter
squadrons. Three Tornado fighter-bomber squadrons to be
stored, and two to be converted to maritime strike.
- Royal Navy-3,000-man cut to 60,000 personnel. Escort fleet
to be cut from 48 to 40. Attack submarines cut from 29 to 16.
Trident program retained.
 The deep cuts in military forces that Defense Secretary King outlined
yesterday will sharply reduce the UK's military presence on the
continent while maintaining forces for home defense and overseas
intervention. King said the cuts would occur over the next five to
seven years if Soviet forces continue to leave Eastern Europe and a
CFE accord is signed. Total personnel cuts could reach 57,000 troops
nearly a fifth of the UK's active military manpower
Comment: King's announcement shows Thatcher's belated
recognition that the threat from the East has declined radically and
that the public expects a peace dividend of increased social spending.
London may try to secure its European presence by merging its two
remaining army divisions in West Germany into multinational corps
and relying more on reserve units for reinforcements. Although
personnel cuts in UK-based forces will be relatively small, the fleet
will lose almost a fourth of its warships. Plans to retain three aircraft
carriers and two amphibious assault ships and to form a mobile
reserve division, however, indicate London will maintain a modest
capability to intervene overseas.
YUGOSLAVIA: Croatia's Serbs Declare Sovereignty
Leaders of Croatia's 600,000 Serbs asserted at a mass rally yesterday
that Serbs have the right to secede from the republic and "integrate"
with other Yugoslav "nations." Croatian President Tudjman in a
speech to the republic legislature denounced the move as an attempt
to destabilize Croatia and provoke armed intervention. He indirectly
accused the hardline Communist leadership in Serbia of
manipulating the Serb minority in Croatia in order to to le his
government.
Comment: The sovereignty declaration will aggravate ethnic tensions
in Croatia and increase the prospect of civil conflict, especially if the
nationalistic Tudjman carries out his threat to purge Serbs from the
bureaucracy. Tudjman's allegation of Serbian subversion in Croatia
will complicate efforts to work out a comvromise on the future
structure of Yugoslavia.
 Tom
USSR: Trying To Control "Illegal" Armed Groups
in the Ukraine. Azerbaijan President Mutalibov in a meeting with
Gorbachev last Friday demanded that immediate steps be taken to
Gorbachev's decree yesterday ordering armed units not authorized by
Soviet legislation to disband within 15 days will provide an important
test of his authority in the non-Russian republics. The decree
authorizes national and republic security authorities to confiscate
weapons and related materiel and to prosecute anyone aiding or
abetting the formation of extralegal groups. The Lithuanian
legislature last week began setting up republic military formations;
Latvia, Georgia, and the Ukraine have asserted a right to their own
armed forces; and armed independent or quasi-official units are
operating in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, and are being formed
Comment: The decree is almost certainly meant to reverse the steady
growth of organized violence in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Central
Asia and the formation of republic militias. The text is not likely to be
taken seriously by republic officials or the armed groups. The use of
force to disarm radical groups-the most pressing problem-almost
certainly risks provoking a violent confrontation, especially in
Armenia and Georgia. If Gorbachev does not try to enforce the
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 USSR: Military Presence in Angola Criticized
Izvestiya has denounced the Soviet military presence in Angola. In
the latest in a series of articles critical of Moscow's military support
to Third World regimes, it faulted especially the role Soviet advisers
played in helping plan the recent Mavinga offensive, which "sharply
exacerbated" the situation. Calling the war senseless, the author
wondered how Soviet efforts to promote a political settlement square
with the USSR's involvement with an offensive military operation.
He lamented the secrecy surrounding the amount of military aid
given to Angola and urged the US and Soviets to help promote a
peaceful settlement.
Comment: The Soviets have 1,100 to 1,200 military advisers in
Angola and show no sign of drawing them down, as they have from
Ethiopia and Mozambique. The Izvestiya piece appears meant to spur
public and legislative debate on the wisdom of continuing military
support to Angola in an era of constrained resources and as Moscow
promotes regional settlements. Izvestiya has also harshly criticized
Soviet military aid relationships with Ethiopia and Syria; it has
reviewed more favorably the USSR's profitable arms relations with
India.
 - Algeria freed 15 Islamic terrorists yesterday as gesture to Islamic
Salvation Front ... Bendjedid hopes move will enable him to
avoid early national election ... vote now could improve chances
for fundamentalists.
first time president has given up defense portfolio since
independence ... may give military renewed political role.
Middle East - Algerian President Bendjedid shuffled government yesterday ...
former Army Chief of Staff Nezzar named Defense Minister ...
indigenous technology, tracing shipments.
difficulties include lack of training, problems classifying
- East Germany opening office to focus on controlling strategic trade
to USSR ... probably not fully operational until September ...
alternative to special relationship with Germany.
Europe - Italian Prime Minister Andreotti, Gorbachev will discuss West
European aid in Moscow today ... Rome hopes aid will give
Gorbachev time to reform economy ... also wants USSR to see
while buying time following coup attempt this month.
year ... trying to placate critics calling for political liberalization
Africa - Zambian President Kaunda has announced release of 1,000 political
prisoners, postponed referendum on multiparty democracy until next
rights but not military reform ... FMLN reportedly prepared to
- Salvadoran peace talks ended yesterday with agreement on human
assess talks before deciding whether to go ahead.
despite easing of economic sanctions.
- UK, Italy, West Germany, France, Australia, Canada to boycott
China's Army Day celebration next week, following US lead ...
Japan will attend .... suggests resolve on lethal military sales ban
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