ANALYSIS OF SERIES PRODUCED BY ESP EXPERIMENTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00787R000200090023-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 17, 1998
• Sequence Number: 23
• Content Type: RS

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SG1I
ANALYSIS OF SERIES PRODUCED BY ESP EXPERMENTS
ical ESP experiments involve the comparison of guesses with
external states presumably both uncontrolablerand unperceivable by the
percipient by normal sensory means. The following note points out
statistical variables available &'r~analysis in these experiments and
their possible interpretation in terms of ESP effects. The SRI
experiments with the 4-state random number generator are experiments
of this type.., In the following, for simplicity, a 2-state or binary choice
device is assumed, but by obvious extension the ideas may be applied to
an analysis of 4 state_.data as well.-
Denoting the two states of the machine by +2. and -~ the series
produced by the machine during the test is a time-ordered series (nZi )
where m., takes the value of #1 or -:1 , and denotes the position
in the series N(total number of states in test). The
corresponding guesses made by the percipient form another series 94 )
where % is either +1 or -j ,and again L indexes the guess. Yet
another time-ordered series is that produced by the machine during a calibration
run with no percipient which we denote ( Ci ) and assume 4 = 1,2,??? N.
as before with the same value of N,
There are thus three time-ordered series to be analys&d and compared.
1. ( MI ) the series produced by the machine during the test
2` ( 9Z ) the series of guesses of the percipient
3: ( CZ ) the calibration series of the machine
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The statistical properties of each series separately is described by
a heirarchy of correlation functions:
I d1Z~ mean value (average properties)
m. > = -
N L.
CM (y)'v 1 M4m4#i
i
emrn,n (,k)
2nd order autocorrelation (
displacement within series
b t1 ? . /fc,k 3d order autocorrelation
Higher order correlations
If randomness is at issue it can be determined from the measured values
of these functions compared with the probable values they would have for
a truly random series. For most purposes it is deemed sufficient to use
no higher than 2nd order correlations. A further simplification is to
restrict attention to transition probabilities, i.e. cm (I) with j =:t,
only. The cut-off point in the analysis is dictated by practical considerations
of sample size ( magnitude of N), or convenience of computation. In inei g,
however, the entire heirarchy is required for a complete analysis.
In addition to the autocorrelations, the cross-correlations of the series
with each other may be computed. There are threee(3) 2nd order- crossacorrelation
functions among the three series above.
mg (~ ,) '~" fn4 94a-a' machine test- percipient test
4, in ccf~ machine test- machine calibration
Cce / C 9d.* machine calibration-percipient test
The essential point of this note is that a proper description of, an ESP
experiment requires a computation of these correlation functions together with
embody the very information sought in the experiment.
. They
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The significance of the various functions is as follows.-
l.- Averages and autocorrelations
Determine whether each of the series is random, and especially
and ('j) determine whether other than random strategy is used
by percipient?
x.'/n> and ) compared with