LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING NOVEMBER 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100150013-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 7, 2009
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: November 20, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
?
NIC 06550-84
20 November 1984
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM:
Acting Assistant National Intelligence Officer for
Latin America
SUBJECT: Latin America Warning and Forecast Meeting
November 1984
1. The Warning Meeting of 14 November 1984 addressed recent and
potential developments in Uruguay, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Jamaica.
Uruguay.
2. Uruguay's 25 November elections appear to be a fairly tight
three-man race, with the moderate Colorado Party still in the lead over
the leftist Blancos and the far left Broad Front. However:
-- The less moderate candidates may dominate the newly-elected
parliament, and Uruguayan foreign policy may become more
"nationalist"--i.e., opposed--to some United States
interests, particularly concerning the mounting foreign debt
and relations with the IMF.
-- The Broad Front appears better organized and financed and
more popular than we earlier expected, although the military
establish
t
men
probably will continue to bar its path to power.
1
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El Salvador.
4. Analysts considered it worth recording that since last July the
Warning Meetings had predicted--correctly--that there would be no major
guerrilla offensive prior to the US elections.
-- Sustained offensive sweeps by the Army generally have kept
the insurgents off balance and forced them to revert to
smaller unit operations. Nevertheless, the recent major
attack on Suchitoto showed the guerrillas are still capable
of surprise large-scale
-- At present we anticipate that the next round of negotiations
between the government and the guerrilla leaders, tentatively
scheduled for late November will produce few results.
Nevertheless, the insurgents may try to put Duarte on the
defensive by offering a series of moderate proposals,
including a holiday ceasefire. These would be designed to
cause friction between the President and conservative
hardliners opposed to any reconciliation with the insurgents.
Nicaragua.
6. Key items of equipment delivered by the Bulgarian ship Khristo
Botev and the Soviet ship Bakuriani included MI-24 Hind helicopters and
TT. AAA with fire control radars. Analysts agreed there are at least
seven of the Hinds now in the Sandinistas' inventory, with the likelihood
that they will end up with at least 12.
-- There is a possibility that foreigners (Cubans) may be
piloting the Hinds or operating the fire control radars for
the 57 mm. AAA.
-- The next improvement in Nicaraguan air defense most analysts
expect are SA-2s or SA-3s.
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7. Politically, the Sandinistas may have begun the crackdown
expected in the wake of the elections. La Prensa is being harassed
again, and the security forces of hardline Minister of Interior Borge are
more active.
Jamaica.
9. The Community's concerns have eased somewhat since this topic was
inscribed on the warning agenda. do
not see any correlation between a recent increase in leftist violence and
outside funding of radical leftist groups.
Nevertheless, the violence is a serious domestic problem, and
over the long term serves Havana's goal of destabilizing the
pro-US government. Meanwhile, the worsening economic
situation spells real trouble for the political future of
Seaga.
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SUBJECT: Warning Report for Latin Amer ca NIC t06554-84
DATE: NUVEt1BER 1984
DISTRIBUTION:
1 - Department of State (DeWitt)
1 - Department of State/INR/IC/RD
(Suzanne D. Kuser, Room 6845)
1 - NSA
1 - NSA
1 - Treasury (Mulholland)
1 - DIA/
1 - DIA
1 - DIA
1 - Vice President's Office (Hughes)
1 - NSC (Menges)
1 - USMC (Call)
1 - ONI (LeBauve)
1 - NAVOPINTCEN (Greene)
1 - USArnpr (Brown)
1 - USAF (Silva/Kelbaugh)
SECREII
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SUBJECT: WARNING REPORT FOR LATIN AMERICA NIC 06554-84
DATE: NOVEMBER 1984
DISTRIBUTION:
1 - DC I
1 - DDCI
1 - EXDI R
1 - ER
1 - DDI
1 - DDO/EPDS
1 - DDO/PCS Room 2D55 Hqs)
1 - C/NIC
1 - VC/NIC
1 - DDI Registry
1 - NIO/W
1 - NIO/AF
1 - NIO/EA
1 - NIO/GPF
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - NIO/AL (Low)
1 - NIO/AL (Ford)
1 - NIO/AL (Hutchinson)
1 - NIO/USSR
1 - NIO/Europe
1 - NIO/SP
1 - NIO/ECON
1 - NIO/S&T
1 - NIO/Counterterrorism
1 - NIO/FDIA
1 - SRP
1 - IPC/DDI
1 - D/CPAS
1 - D/OCR
1 - D/SOVA (Room 4E58 HQS)
1 - D/OIA
1 - D/NES
1 - D/OEA
1 - D/OSWR
1 - D/NPIC
1 - CE::AD (Room 3DOO Hqs)
SECRET
25X1
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