WARNING REPORT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100010030-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 14, 2008
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: March 25, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

National Intelligence Council
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
NIC #2209-83/1
25 March 1983
THROUGH . National Intelligence Officer for Warning
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Acting National Intelligence Officer for Africa
SUBJECT : Warning Report: Sub-Saharan Africa n
Community representatives and specialists met on 22 March 1983 with the
Acting NIO/AF as chairman. The attached report has not been coordinated with
the other participants, but is being circulated to them. If they feel their
views have been misinterpreted, or if they have significant additional
concerns, I'll report further to you.
Attachment
NIC #2209-83
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S
NIC #2209-83
25 March 1983
WARNING REPORT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
THE VICE PRESIDENT'S TRIP TO AFRICA
Bill Eckert of Vice President Bush's staff and Fred Wettering of the
National Security Council accompanied Vice President Bush to Africa last
November and presented a brief overview of the trip to the Community
representatives. A lively question and answer period followed. The trip went
very well and was an excellent opportunity for African leaders to express
their concerns and for the Vice President to reiterate and reinforce US policy
objectives toward Africa. As might be expected, economic assistance was on
the top of the agenda for most of the countries visited. The Vice President
repeated the Administration's concern for Africa's economic development but
reminded his African audiences that the US alone cannot solve Africa's
problems through bilateral aid. He encouraged African leaders to make use of
the wide array of economic resources available, including international
financial institutions, but also emphasized the importance of I~e_st_e__cn~rivate
investment and the need to initiate economic reforms at home. -
The Vice President also reaffirmed the Administration's desire for a
settlement in Namibia and underscored its belief that a withdrawal of the
Cubans from Angola remains a crucial element of US policy toward Namibia.
Military activity in Chad appears to have fallen off at least for the
time being, and the focus has shifted for now to the political front as the
Habre government prepares a campaign in the United Nations against the Libyan
presence in the Aouzou Strip. Analysts are concerned, however, that Habre is
not getting the external military assistance that he needs to counter the
dissident forces in northern Chad. The Goukouni-led dissidents appear to be
building their resources but have not yet undertaken aggressive actions.
Although Habre now has some 3,000 troops in northern Chad, he does not have
any defense capability against air attacks if air support is ever provided to
the dissidents by the Libyans. Analysts do not expect the Habre government to
fall anytime in the near future, but they warn that Habre's failure to
establish his government's authority more f ri mly throughout the country,
particularly in the South, and to secure economic assistance, may erode over
the longer. term the "winner" image that he projected when he seized the
government last year.
ZIMBABWE
Considerable concern was expressed over the potentially serious internal
security problems that are developing in the wake of the government's often
heavy-handed military efforts to suppress dissidence in Matabeleland, the base
of opposition leader Joshua Nkomo's popular support. Most analysts feared
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to cope with internal problems.
Key questions now are the future of Nkomo's Zimbabwe African Peoples
Union party and whether or not Nkomo returns to Zimbabwe. DIA, supported by
others, felt that Nkomo's return would sharpen tensions and that it would be
better for.the internal situation if he remained abroad. Analysts seemed to
feel that this is what Mugabe prefers. With Nkomo abroad, Mugabe might then
have more time to weaken ZAPU, as he moves gradually toward creating a one-
party state. Concern was expressed that ZAPU loyalists, especially those who
have deserted the army, might disburse to nearby countries such as Botswana,
thereby creating unneeded tensions for Mugabe with his neighbors as he tries
government's military operations appear to be winding down.
that there would be a continued and perhaps rising level of violence there in
the next few months--possibly involving white civilians--even though the
SOUTH AFRICA AND ITS NEIGHBORS
Analysts continue to keep close watch on South Africa's cat-and-mouse
games with its neighbors. South Africa's aggressiveness has its neighbors off
balance and, in the view of one CIA analyst, Pretoria can afford to rest on
its laurels for awhile. Thus, barring some "spectacular" terrorist operation
by the African National Congress inside South Africa, the South Africans may
act with restraint, except, perhaps, toward Angola where military operations
could begin at any time. Analysts expect that the South Africans will meet
again soon with the Angolans but are doubtful that meaningful measures will be
taken concerning a military disengagement in southern Angola.
be increased to clarify what is still a somewhat murky situation.
UPPER VOLTA
Recent information suggests that Libyan involvement in Upper Volta may be
developing. All of the representatives agreed that collection efforts sh uld
adeptly as he has in the past.
SNIPPETS
-- Sudan continues to bear further watching for indications of North-
South frictions. The North-South relationship appears to be deteriorating,
and President Nimeiri does not seem to be managing this threatening problem as
-- Coup rumors abound concerning the Comoros and Seychelles.
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