WARNING REPORT--NUCLEAR ISSUES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100010027-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 14, 2008
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: March 29, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/11/14: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100010027-1
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
NIC #2380-83/1
29 March 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH . National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM . Hans Heymann, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer at Large
SUBJECT : Warning Report--Nuclear Issues
The Interagency Intelligence Working Group on Nuclear Proliferation
(IIWP/NP) met on 23 March 1983 to discuss six nuclear issues:
-- India's start-up of reprocessing spent fuel at PREFRE.
-- Indigenous production of fuel elements in Pakistan.
-- The forthcoming OPANAL Conference in Jamaica in May.
-- The USSR and the IAEA: Benefits and detriments.
-- Status of proposed French reactor sale to Iraq (Osirak).
Among these six issues, only the first two generated enough concern
to be highlighted in my report--attached.
-- Extent and nature of Argentine
Hans Heymann, Jr.
,Attachment:
As Stated
SECRET
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Warning Report: Nuclear Proliferation
(1
Ar entina
Argentina expects to com lete work on its Ezeiza Re rocessing
a oratory (LPR) by 1986.
First use of the LPR, when completed, would probably be
for reprocessing spent fuel from the Atucha I reactor. That reactor
is under IAEA safeguards, but there are troublesome questions about
the adequacy of the IAEA inventory controls, surveillance equipment
and inspection procedures in place at Atucha I. Given Argentine
attitudes toward safeguards generally, this gives us cause for
concern.
(2) Indian Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing. Sensationalized press reports that
India is reprocessing spent fuel from the Rajasthan Atomic Power Plant
at the PREFRE (Power Reactor Fuel Reprocessing) facility at Tarapur
has raised widespread concern that India may be diverting the
plutonium being recovered to a separate military stockpile. While
this is certainly possible in principle, the available evidence does
not point to such an interpretation:
o The reprocessing activity at PREFRE is being monitored by
IAEA inspectors. To our knowledge, they have found no
violation of India's safeguards obligations.
25X1
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Warning Report: Nuclear Proliferation (Continued)
o There are no apparent irregularities in the movement of
RAPP spent fuel to PREFRE, i.e., "batching" of fuel into
high burnup and low burnup lots which would indicate an
attempt to recover weapons-grade plutonium from specially
selected fuel elements.
o There are no indications of frequent shutdowns of PREFRE
to allow "rearrangements" to switch from reprocessing high
to low burnup spent fuel.
o There appears to be no strong incentive for India to
divert more plutonium to weapons use, since it already has
a sizable stockpile of weapons-grade plutonium (probably
in excess of 100 kg) recovered from spent fuel discharged
from its CIRUS reactor.
2
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Nevertheless, the recovered plutonium, stored at the reprocessing facilty,
would be available at any time for bomb purposes, though the plutonium, if
derived from high burnup spent fuel, would be of inferior quality and
somewhat unreliable in weapons use.
There is no indication of Pakistani anxiety over the Indian
reprocessing actions--i.e., it seems to make little difference to the
Pakistanis in their weapons outlook.
Approved For Release 2008/11/14: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100010027-1
 Approved For Release 2008/11/14: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100010027-1
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SUBJECT: March Warning Report--Nuclear Issues
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?9 March 1983 NIC 2380/83/1
Approved For Release 2008/11/14: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100010027-1