THE INSURGENT SUPPLY NETWORK IN AFGHANISTAN: BUILDING AN EFFECTIVE SYSTEM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90T01298R000300310001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 23, 2009
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 1, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90T01298R000300310001-7
Directorate of Secret
A(ES. 19 - - -~ 8'S'- os jG
Effective System
The Insurgent Supply Network
in Afghanistan: Building an 25X1
Secret
NGA Review Completed
NESA-10156
August 1985
Copy 31 3
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
UN Intelligence
Directorate of Secret
The Insurgent Supply Network
in Afghanistan: Building an
11 Effective System
This paper was prepared byl Office of
Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis. It was
Comments and queries are welcome and may be
directed to the Chief, South Asia Division, NESA,
Secret
NESA 85-10156
August 1985
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
The Insurgent Supply Network
in Afghanistan: Building an
Effective System
Secret
Key Judgments Increases in military supplies delivered via Pakistan and Iran to insurgent
Information available groups fighting in Afghanistan have gradually improved the resistance's
as of 17 July 1985 ability to attack Soviet targets. Despite numerous problems, the guerrillas
was used in this report.
are establishing a fairly effective system of resupplying their forces, and
they appear better armed than at any time since the Soviet invasion in
1979.
In addition to the danger of attacks by Soviet and Afghan troops,
insurgents must overcome many other obstacles in trying to supply their
forces:
? Transportation problems will continue to be a major hindrance to
resupply efforts.
? The cost of transporting goods rises substantially with the distance and
difficulty of the route, and insurgent groups in remote locations are
poorly armed compared to their counterparts in the border provinces.
? Confrontations between rival guerrilla groups sometimes cause delays
and supply losses.
? Corruption and theft prevent a small quantity of weapons and ammuni-
tion from reaching the insurgent groups for which they were intended.
Concern about losses to Soviet and Afghan forces has prompted many
resistance groups to take extensive precautions to ensure the safety of their
supply lines. Soviet efforts to reduce insurgent infiltration-enhanced by
tactical changes, equipment improvements, and small force augmenta-
tions-are making insurgent movement more dangerous but are unlikely to
prevent the resistance from resupplying their forces in Afghanistan. The
guerrillas most likely will be able to adjust their tactics to counter the
recent improvements in Soviet capabilities in the border areas, and
Moscow's reluctance to increase its forces sufficiently to seal the border
will continue to limit Soviet success.
iii Secret
NESA 85-10156
August 1985
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Secret
Key Judgments
Resupply Problems
Corruption and Theft
Soviet Efforts To Reduce Insurgent Infiltration 8
Countermeasures to Soviet Interdiction Efforts 9
Prospects 10
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Secret
The Insurgent Supply Network
in Afghanistan: Building an
Effective Syste
We estimate that the number of armed Afghan
insurgents has risen dramatically from 50,000 to
100,000 at the time of the Soviet invasion to at least
150,000 full- or part-time fighters.' An improving
resistance logistic system has abetted the growth of
insurgent arms holdings
Alliance of Afghan Resistance Parties
Based in Pakistan
Group
Leader
Ethnic
Compo-
sition
Hizbi Islami (Islamic Party)'
(Gulbuddin)
Gulbuddin
Hekmatyar
Pushtun
Hizbi Islami (Islamic Party)
(Khalis)
Mohammad
Yunus Khalis
Pushtun
Islamic Union for the
Liberation of Afghanistan
Abdul Rasul
Sayyaf
Pushtun
Jamiat-i-Islami (Islamic Society)
Burhanuddin
Rabbani
Tajik
Harakat-Inqilab-i-Islami (Islamic
Revolutionary Movement)
Mohammad Nabi
Mohammadi
Pushtun
Jabna-i-Najat-i-Milli
Afghanistan (Afghanistan
National Liberation Front)
Sibghatullah
Mojadedi
Pushtun
Mahaz-i-Milli-Islami (National
Islamic Front)
Sayed Ahmad
Gailani
Pushtun
25X1
25X6
tions; some capture them from Soviet and Afghan
forces; others steal arms from rival groups; and some
guerrillas purchase their supplies directly from arms
bazaars in Pakistan and sources inside Afghanistan.
Insurgent groups operating in Afghanistan obtain
their arms in several ways. Most insurgents are
supplied by the Peshawar-based -resistance organiza-
Some insurgent groups in Afghanistan apparently
bypass the Peshawar resistance organizations and
receive their supplies directly from
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Criteria for Supply Distribution
party
General criteria used by Pakistan-based resistance
parties for determining the distribution of supplies to
commanders in Afghanistan:
? Strategic importance of the group's area of
operations.
? Size of the insurgent group.
? Political and military influence of the commander
and his personal contacts in Pakistan.
? Extent of losses suffered by group in operations.
? Level of activity of the group.
? Nature of the group's mission or missions.
? Amount of supplies available to the Pakistan-based
25X1 Transporting the Supplies
The insurgent commander to whom the supplies are
issued in Peshawar is responsible for arranging for
their transportation from
his group in Afghanistan.
supply caravans consist of insurgents and privately
owned trucks and animals. We believe the mode of
transport depends mainly on the funds available to the
insurgent group, transportation costs, and the route
the insurgents will use to reach their' destination. In
the eastern provinces, most supplies are transported
on mules, horses, or half-ton trucks. Insurgents resup-
plying their forces in southwestern and western Af-
ghanistan tend-to use mostly trucks and camels.
25X1 and trucks and moved in by road from Pakistan rather
than through remote regions on the backs of animals
The generally rugged geography of Afghanistan's
borders is a major advantage for the resistance. Over
the past five years, the insurgents have used hundreds
of routes from Pakistan and Iran to deliver military
nods to their groups fighting in Af hanistan.0
Soviets believe _ 25X1
that the insurgents can use approximately 300 moun-
tain passes between Pakistan and Afghanistan to
move arms and other equipment, but we believe that
the number is higher. If the Soviets succeeded in
closing all of the main passes to Pakistan, guerrilla
forces probably would switch to alternative-albeit
less convenient and more time-consuming-routes.
Resistance movements across the long Iranian frontier
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Iq
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Figure 1
Areas of Afghanistan Unsuited to Cross-Country Movement by Wheeled and Tracked Vehicles
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Secret
Corruption and Theft
We believe a small quantity of the insurgents' mili-
tary supplies is lost through corruption and theft.
Most field commanders for large guerrilla groups in
Afghanistan report few significant problems with
corruption, and some, like Panjsher Valley command-
er Masood, authorize harsh punishment for insurgents
involved in arms thefts. Nonetheless, arms smuggling
and black-market dealing are traditional in Afghani-
stan, and there are some insurgent leaders who hoard
the arms and ammunition they receive from Pakistan,
trade them for other weapons, or sell them for private
gain. We question the claims of some insurgent
sources, most of whom have ties to groups that receive
few arms from resistance organizations in Pakistan,
that as much as 60 percent of the military supplies
provided to the insurgents are diverted. Based on
reporting from fairly reliable sources, we believe that
the amount lost because of corruption or theft is.
probably only 10 to 30 percent of supplies
25X1 Desire for personal profit or political gain motivates
some insurgents to divert arms intended for groups in
Afghanistan. a few
insurgent staff members in Pakistan who are responsi-
ble for distributing arms sell them to noninsurgent
buyers or to groups other than those to which the
supplies are authorized. At least one arms distributor
in late 1983 and early 1984 sold for personal profit all
of the arms and ammunition consigned to him for
routing to western Afghanistan.
some arms caravans heading into Af-
ghanistan turn around at the border and bring the
arms to secret caches from which they are sold on the
open or black market
some arms an ammunition
that were authorize or distribution to the resistance
were sold to Pakistani dissidents or smuggled into
India. Some Afghans are also selling Pakistani-
supplied weapons in Iran to the Tudeh (Communist)
Part
Some insurgent groups in Afghanistan-mainly those
with no or only poor connections to the seven major
Peshawar resistance groups-steal arms and ammuni-
tion from other groups, probably because they are
disgruntled with the supply network and their inabil-
ity to obtain sufficient arms in Pakistan
insurgent commander from the small Fedayed-i-
Islami organization, has waylaid caravans entering
Qandahar Province near Spin Buldak and stolen their
weapons because he is not receiving weapons from the
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Pakistani Corruption
Most of the allegations against Islamabad are by
leaders of the moderate resistance organizations-
25X1
Pakistanis. He recently defected to the Kabul govern-
ment. Small groups like Ismatullah's are strong candi-
dates for recruitment by the regime because they tend
to switch loyalties often to obtain military supplies,
Accusations of Pakistani diversion in'the medial
25X1
-
re based 25X1
on rumors and contacts with insurgent leaders like
Gailani. These reports are not, in our view, reliable
other goods, or money
Soviet Efforts To Reduce Insurgent Infiltration
The Soviets and Afghans are implementing tactical
changes to try to stem infiltration in the border
regions. They continue to rely mainly on large block-
and-sweep operations, which they are conducting
frequently. The Soviets also are increasing their use of
small-unit tactics and heliborne assaults to trap insur-
gent caravans:
? Unlike in the past when Soviet and Afghan attacks
dropped sharply in the winter, fighting in border
areas has continued with little interruption since last
summer. The Soviets launched one of their largest
operations of the war in the Konar Valley in late
May, concentrating on blocking resistance infiltra-
tion and escape routes and sweeping the area.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Soviet heliborne as-
especially Sayed Ahmad Gailani-whose groups re-
ceive fewer arms from Pakistan than the rivalfunda-
mentalist organizations. Gailani probably receives
smaller quantities of weapons than other groups
because his insurgents are neither very active nor
effective. Islamabad
decided in January 1980 to provide arms mostly to
groups that would use them effectively. We believe -
that the accusations by Gailani are aimed at discred-
iting the fundamentalists and the Pakistani Govern-
the Soviets
began using mobile ambush teams in southwestern
Afghanistan in late 1983. Helicopter-supplied teams
of some 30 troops operate for two to 20 days to
monitor insurgent movements and conduct am-
bushes in a given area.
the Soviets have
increased their air patrols of passes from Pakistan
into the eastern provinces and are trying to respond
more quickly to aerial reconnaissance confirmation
of caravan movements.
? Late last year Afghan regime units renewed their
efforts to halt guerrilla traffic on roads into Afghan-
istan by garrisoning a series of posts and temporary
camps in the eastern provinces
Recent increases in Soviet manpower in the border
provinces are improving their capabilities against
insurgent infiltration, but their numbers are still far
too few to seal the border.
saults and ambushes of insurgent caravans have
increased over the past year.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Secret
In some areas of Afghanistan terrain offers few
places for concealment and leaves the insurgents
open to 'pop-up " attacks by Soviet or Afghan
helicopter
more than doubled the number of special-purpose
forces-Spetsnaz-in the country and sent an addi-
tional motorized rifle regiment from the USSR to
Herat. The regiment will enhance pipeline security
and probably conduct sweep operations close to the
Iranian border
Rough terrain often complicates insurgent resup-
ply efforts, making vehicular traffic impossible
and straining humans and animals. It also con-
ceals convoy movements and reduces their vul-
defuse the mines]
The Soviets probably hope new equipment will also
improve their capabilities. The use of BM-27 multiple
rocket launchers, which reliable sources report are
now in Afghanistan, in addition to helicopters will
greatly enhance their ability to quickly sow antiper-
sonnel mines in areas of suspected insurgent infiltra-
tion from long range. The Soviets, however, will be
unable to mine all insurgent trails, and the guerrillas
as in the past most likely will devise tactics to avoid or
25X1 Besides increasing air and ground reconnaissance and
continuing to rely heavily on informants, the Soviets
apparently are trying other methods to improve their
abilities to detect supply efforts.
nsurgents from Lowgar
on a camel in a convoy from Pakistan
and locating transmitter-hidden between blankets
Province found a sma evice-probably a tracking
Countermeasures to Soviet Interdiction Efforts
Many insurgent groups take extensive precautions
while traveling to ensure the safety of their supply
lines. guer- 25X1
rilla groups usually split their caravans into units of
no more than 10 animals to avoid detection by Soviet
and Afghan forces; trucks resupply some insurgent
groups in Afghanistan, but they rarely travel in
convoys. When a caravan is attacked by Soviet or
Afghan troops, the guerrillas usually scatter, take
defensive positions, and hold their fire to avoid coun=
terfire. The caravan then reforms at a predetermined
location where its greater strength will protect it
against attacks by rival groups. In regions where
terrain provides little natural cover, guerrillas travel
at night so their movement will. not be detected by
aircraft. Travel during the day is usually restricted to
rough terrain, away from main roads, where the
groups run less risk of being spotted
The insurgent information network often allows cara-
vans to alter their routes to avoid Soviet and Afghan
operations or patrols. Villagers, contacts in the Af-
ghan military, and other resistance groups provide
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 weapons
Because Moscow realizes that resistance activity in-
side Afghanistan depends on arms flows across the
borders, it is likely to continue intensifying political
and military pressure on Pakistan and Iran to stop
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
their support to the insurgents
Soviet political and military efforts to stop the flow of
arms to the resistance, however, are unlikely to
prevent the insurgents from resupplying their forces.
The number of insurgent counterambushes of Soviet
and Afghan heliborne assault teams is likely to in-
crease over the coming months. According to a fairly
reliable source, insurgent leaders in Qandahar Prov-
ince have instructed their forces to aggressively patrol
areas known or suspected to be landing zones for
Soviet heliborne forces attempting to ambush resis-
tance supply columns. Panjsher Valley guerrillas al-
ready have practiced counterambush tactics during
several Soviet and Afghan regime campaigns into the
valley and could use them to protect their supply lines.
Prospects
The Afghan insurgents will have to overcome numer-
ous problems if they are to maintain their resupply
routes. The availability and high cost of transporta-
tion will continue to be significant hindrances. Resis-
tance forces also are likely to find travel more hazard-
ous and lose more military supplies over the coming
months as Soviet forces conduct large and more
frequent operations near the borders and become
more adept at locating supply routes and confiscating
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Secret
Figure 2
Insurgent Counterambush of a Soviet
Heliborne Assault Team
1. Insurgent caravan moves along scheduled route.
2. Local insurgent group patrols sections of the caravan route and
sets up counterambush teams ahead of the caravan.
3. Soviet ambush team (heliborne assault force) attempts to ambush
4. Pre-positioned insurgents open fire on Soviet ambush team,
warning caravan in the process.
5. Caravan scatters and regroups at predetermined point.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Moreover, the guerrillas quickly adapt to Soviet and
Afghan regime tactical changes, and they probably
will try to offset their losses by bringing in larger
quantities of military goods and switching to less
convenient routes. Moscow's reluctance to increase its
forces sufficiently to seal the border also will continue
to limit Soviet success in reducing the flow of insur-
gent supplies into Afghanistan
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Moreover, the guerrillas quickly adapt to Soviet and
Afghan regime tactical changes, and they probably
will try to offset their losses by bringing in larger
quantities of military goods and switching to less
convenient routes. Moscow's reluctance to increase its
forces sufficiently to seal the border also will continue
to limit Soviet success in reducing the flow of insur-
gent supplies into Afghanistan
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7
Secret
Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/24: CIA-RDP90TO1298R000300310001-7