POTENTIAL DECLINE OF US MILITARY PRESENCE/INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89B00423R000300330003-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2008
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: September 28, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

~. Approved For Release 2008/12/03: CIA-RDP89B00423R000300330003-4
SE C RE T_________
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC 05608-84
28 September 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH: Chairman, National Intelligence Council %
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT: Potential Decline of US Military
Presence/Influence in Central America
1. Several actions over the past few months point to a potential
sharp decline in the US military presence and influence in Central
America:
-- In Panama, the US is being forced to close the School of the
Americas on 1 October, ending at least temporarily a
long-standing program of training for Latin American
officers. Plans are now to move the school to Puerto Rico or
Florida.
-- In Costa Rica, the Monge government)
has been pushing ahead with a bilateral peace
treaty with Nicaragua that would create a neutral zone along
their common border patrolled by a multi-lateral Latin
America/European force. An earlier proposal to send US
military engineers to Costa Rica's northern border area to
improve access to the region appears to be a dead issue.,
-- In Honduras, the government is asking for a complete review of
its security relationship with the United States. It will
halt training of Salvadoran troops by US advisers at the RMTC
as well as several US military construction projects in the
interim.
-- In El Salvador, President Duarte has said he is prepared to
send US military advisers home in the context of a CONTADORA
peace treaty as long as Nicaragua does likewise with the
Soviets and Cubans. Meanwhile, he has been promised military
aid and training assistance by Venezuela and Colombia.
SECRET)
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-- In Guatemala, the government appears to have come under the
increasing influence in its regional outlook, and
may no longer support a strong US miltary presence in Central
America.
2. The Central American countries may all be influenced by the
CONTADORA process. The current draft treaty would reduce US military
influence in the region considerably.
-- It would prohibit any US military bases or schools in Central
America.
-- It would require all military advisers to leave except for
technical maintenance personnel.
-- It would prohibit any international military maneuvers in the
region.
-- It would end the supply of new US weaponry to Central America.
3. Although the US is attempting to get the Core Four to modify or
change these provisions, there is some danger that we may not succeed
satisfactorily.
-- The draft treaty probably strikes a basic sentiment in the
region against past and potential future US interference in
their internal" affairs. This sentiment is shared by many
regional liberals and conservatives alike, especially the
extremists on both ends of the spectrum.
-- Even the Core Four countries may believe that if they somehow
can get the US-Soviet confrontation removed as a major factor
in the region, they can contend with the Sandinistas on their
own and limit Nicaraguan interference in their internal
affairs.
-- All the Core Four would still want US economic aid, and they
presumably would still see the Rio Treaty as a safety net
against any direct aggression by Cuba or Nicaragua.
4. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union, Cuba and Nicaragua have all leaped
to support the current draft of the CONTADORA Treaty. Their intention is
to put the US and the Core Four on the defensive about asking for further
changes.
-- Nicaragua has said it will sign the Treaty if there are no
further changes to the text and the US signs the supporting
protocol.
SECREII
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-- Nicaragua and Mexico also have pushed for endorsement of the
current draft by the EC countries and by the United Nations.
5. Nicaragua may use the draft Treaty as an excuse to obtain
MIG-211s. The draft would prohibit the import of new armaments within
thirty days of its signing, but Managua has said it would not need the
MIG's if the US signs.
-- Thus a US refusal to sign the current draft could be used to
justify the acquisition of the MIG's.
- 3-I
SECREII
STAT
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 Approved For Release 2008/12/03: CIA-RDP89B00423R000300330003-4
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SUBJECT: Potential Decline of US Military Presence-./Influence in Central America
NIC 05608=84
28 September 1984
DISTRIBUTION:
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - CLINIC
1 - VC/NIC
1 - ER
1 - NIC Registry
1 - NIO/LA
N IO/J-A/RDVi ckers~
SECRET
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