REPORT OF THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY COMPUTER STUDY PANEL ON CONTAINMENT OF ODP COMPUTER SPACE GROWTH IN THE EXISTING AND NEW HEADQUARTERS BUILDINGS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89-00244R001002390005-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 26
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 21, 2010
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: February 15, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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REPORT OF THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
COMPUTER STUDY PANEL
ON
CONTAINMENT OF ODP COMPUTER
SPACE GROWTH IN THE EXISTING
AND NEW HEADQUARTERS BUILDINGS
15 FEBRUARY 1985
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
COMPUTER STUDY PANEL
C. DANNY MAY (CHAIRMAN), COMPUTER SCIENCES CORPORATION
JAMES H. BURROWS, NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS
JAMES CROKE, MITRE CORPORATION
~TRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY
WILLIS H. WARE, RAND CORPORATION
FREDERIC WITHINGTON, ARTHUR D. LITTLE, INC.
The above named Panel members participated in the preparation of this
Report and have concurred in its contents.
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UNCLASSIFIED
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................ PAGE
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1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 1
2. BACKGROUND ........................:
3. TECHNICAL OPTIONS .............................................................................. 3
4. MANAGEMENT OPTIONS .....................................................:
5. NEW BUILDING OPTIONS ........................................................................ 9
6. FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................. 19
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
A Panel, convened at the direction of the CIA Deputy Director for Administration,
studied the planned expansion of Office of Data Processing (ODP) computer systems
with the goal of determining the most feasible and cost-effective method to prevent
the continuing displacement of personnel in the Headquarters building.
The Baseline information which provided the foundation for the study included:
? ODP's estimates of ADP system growth through the year 2001.
? ODP and Office of Communications (OC) plans for satisfying that growth.
? Plans for allocation and use of computer-grade space in the new Headquarters
building addition.
None of the basic assumptions in the ODP plans were challenged by the Panel;
therefore, the findings and recommendations in this report are based on the premise
that ODP's growth projections are reasonable and that their plans for satisfying the
demand are similarly reasonable ... or, at least, that alternatives which might be
better on some dimensions did not differ materially with respect to space needs.
Findings
? ODP plans to retain 36,000 sq. ft. of computer space in the present
Headquarters, even after the computer-grade space in the new addition
becomes available. The Panel sees no benefit in this approach, and urges that
all ODP computer space in the present Headquarters be released. This would
assure effective use of available space in the new addition, which has
TEMPEST features, and is specifically designed for machines.
? The computer-grade space available to ODP (150,000 sq. ft.) in the new
Headquarters addition could satisfy all growth requirements up to the year
1995, but not without displacing people. Initially, (1987), ODP plans to use
60,000 sq. ft. of this space for computers, with the remainder used for ODP of-
fice space. As computer space needs grow, the ODP people would be displaced
to make room for the computers.
? Improved technology (such as disk drives with greater storage density and
more powerful computers) make better use of space. More improvements are
forecast. ODP plans include the acquisition of this improved equipment as it
becomes available. These measures can slow the rate at which computers will
displace personnel, but not stop it.
? As long as the Agency was committed to locating all its computers in the
Headquarters building, there was no alternative but displacement of people to
accommmodate computer growth. The displaced people could be readily
accommodated elsewhere, as is evidenced b locations for
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? While there may have been valid reasons in the past for not doing so, today it is
technically possible to relocate all or part of ODP's computer files and
processing capability to a remote site
? The security, communications, and operational problems associated with such
a remote operation are manageable, although the risks would be high if the en-
tire ODP processing capability were to be located to a remote of campus site.
? Dividing ODP services into a local and a remote operation will have a major
impact on the ADP system architecture, but not to the extent that technical
risks are high. There is a significant peripheral benefit from a divided
operation. With proper planning and design, the remote facility and the
Headquarters facility can back each other up, providing protection against a
catastrophe at either site.
Recommendations
The Panel recommends that:
? The Agency set a ceiling of 100,000 sq. ft. of space for ODP computers in the
Headquarters compound, which would be obtained from the computer-grade
space in the new Headquarters building addition;
? The 47,462 sq. ft. of computer space in the present Headquarters building be
released for use as office space;
? An expandable, computer-grade facility of initially 50,000 sq. ft. plus support
space be provided (purchased or leased) off-site by 1992 for ODP computers
and peripheral equipment;
? The off-site facility be located at any one of several possible sites
STAT
? The off-site facility be used to provide services which are less communications-
intensive (i.e., Community, development, and possibly batch applications);
? The off-site facility be linked to the Headquarters building via redundant,
secure, high bandwidth communications;
? Both the off-site facility and the Headquarters building contain computer
systems sufficiently similar to each other to provide mutual backup;
? Less critical, less frequently used computer files be relocated to data storage
facilities in the off-site facility, which could be retrieved on-line by the on-site
computers;
? A modified system architecture (computing, communications, and user serv-
ices) with its implementation plan be developed by ODP and OC to support the
relocation by 1992 of some computing services off-site;
? All future ODP budgets for procurement of large computer systems be
accompanied by communications plans from OC and facility plans from OL;
and,
? The user offices be required to budget for the start-up costs (computer
procurement, applications development, and facility expansion) for major new
ADP systems. (The Directorate for Administration would budget for common
user systems serving many offices.)
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Costs
Rough budget estimates (highly site dependent, recurring costs not included, and no
addition for inflation) for implementing the above recommendations are as follows:
? Construction of a new of site facility, including security and support - S44M
? Providing redundant, secure communications to remote site - S2M
The Panel notes that locating the new remote facility on the Langley compound
rather than of site could eliminate most of the communications costs and risks
associated with a remote operation. The Panel did not recommend the Langley
location for two reasons:
? Local community opposition might indefinitely delay its construction.
? ,The remote facility's benefits as a backup would be partially lost.
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REPORT OF THE CIA COMPUTER PANEL
ON CONTAINMENT OF ODP COMPUTER SPACE GROWTH
IN THE EXISTING AND NEW HEADQUARTERS BUILDINGS
1. INTRODUCTION
At the direction of the CIA Deputy Director for Administration, a study panel was
convened on 5 November 1984, and given the charter to "determine the most feasible
and cost-effective method to prevent the continuing displacement of personnel in the
Headquarters building" (including the new Headquarters building addition) "by
machines." Membership on the Panel consisted of the following:
C. Danny May, (Chairman), Computer Sciences Corporation
James H. Burrows, National Bureau of Standards
James Croke. MITRE Corporation
tral Intelligence Agency
National Security Agency
Willis H. Ware, Rand Corporation
Frederic Withington, Arthur D. Little, Inc.
The Panel was assisted in its work b of CIA, serving as the
Panel's Executive Secretary, and a support staff consisting of representatives from
the Offices of Data Processing (ODP), Communications (OC), Logistics (OL), and
Security (OS).
Early in the Panel's deliberations, upon advice from the Deputy Director for
Administration, it was decided to focus on the machines (computers and associated
equipment) that are the responsibility of ODP. The Panel is aware that Agency
computer growth outside of ODP's purview could also result in displacement of
personnel. However, the Panel did not review non-ODP plans and is not offering any
comments in that area. Additionally, the requirements baseline for the Panel's study
was the ODP-provided projections of growth in machines and services, and ODP
plans for satisfying that growth. The Panel did not attempt to verify those projections
or ODP's plans.
The Panel requested and received a series of briefings and handout material from
ODP, OC, OL, and OS. These included information on:
a. The current ODP computer center and workstation environment, the services
it provides, its expected growth, and its transition to space that will be
available in the new Headquarters building addition.
b. Present and planned communications support of the ODP machine
environment.
c. Feasibility, costs, and risks of providing secure communications to a future
ODP environment which would include off-site computers and associated
files.
d. Options for splitting the ODP operations by service (some on-site and some
off-site).
e. Considerations involved in site acquisition and new building construction, on-
site and off-site.
f. Security considerations in providing ODP services from an off-site location.
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2. BACKGROUND
ODP currently has the following space allocated for large mainframe computer
centers in the present Headquarters building:
ter 20,949 sq. ft.
enter 15,363 sq. ft.
Special Center 9,800 sq. ft.
FOURC Center 1,350 sq. ft.
TOTAL 47,462 sq. ft.
The new Headquarters building addition has 200,000 sq. ft. designed for accommo-
dating technical equipment (computers and communications). The utility support (air
conditioning, UPS, etc.) for the Headquarters compound is being upgraded to
accommodate a total of 200,000 sq. ft. of technical equipment space in the present
Headquarters building and the new Headquarters building addition. 50,000 sq. ft. of
machine space in the new Headquarters building addition is reserved for the Office of
Communications. ODP plans to use the remaining 150,000 sq. ft. Initially, 60,000 sq.
ft. of this will be used for machines, and the remaining 90,000 sq. ft. will be occupied
with ODP people. As machine space requirements grow, the ODP people will be
relocated to make room. When the new Headquarters building addition is ready for
occupancy in 1987, ODP plans to establish a New Center in the new Headquarters
building addition, release the Special Center, and rearrange all the services as
follows:
STAT
STAT
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tenter: DDO Support and FOURC
Center: CAMS2, W2, and DESIST
New Center: DDI Expansion equipment, and SAFE
At that time, according to O P lans 96,000 s q. ft. will be available for machines
(36,000 sq. ft. in the present enters, plus a 60,000 sq. ft.
"New Center" in the new Headquarters building addition.) This will satisfy ODP
space needs until 1990. Beginning in 1990, further growth in space requirements
would be largely met by enlarging the New Center at the expense of ODP office
space in the new Headquarters building addition. However, some expansion of the
of growth, the load on the utility support system would be nearing the limit by the
year 1995, with ODP using about three-fourths of the utility systems capacity, and
OC using one-fourth.
The Panel believes that it is not possible to put a ceiling on the growth in ODP serv-
ices and the Agency's eventual space requirements for information processing. The
behavior patterns of analysts and consumers of the intelligence product are changing
in response to the new capabilities available, and the volume of information to be
processed is continuing to grow explosively. Instead, measures must be sought which
will moderate the rate of growth in space requirements where feasible, and channel
the growth in a direction where it will not compete for Headquarters personnel space.
The balance of this report addresses these measures, which include technical,
managerial, and new building options.
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3. TECHNICAL OPTIONS
There are a number of technical options available to the Agency which may offer
some reduction in Headquarters space requirements for ODP computer systems.
These include:
? Use of new technology, direct access, data storage devices which provide
greater storage density per unit volume.
? Architectural changes which enable space consuming on-line computer files to
be remotely located.
? Use of new technology computers which provide greater processing capacity
per unit volume.
The Panel considered each of these options as discussed below:
3.1 Direct Access Storage Devices
Figure 1 shows the historic growth in space requirements for ODP computer systems
and the projected space needs through 1995. The space requirements in Figure 1 are
further broken down to show which part is for Mainframes (computers), Direct
Access Storage Devices (DASD) and All Other (tape drives, printers, etc.). As can be
clearly seen, the major contributor to the explosive growth in space requirements is
DASD. Figure 1 does not take into account any reductions in space needs that might
result from technological improvements.
The Panel asked one of its members, Ted Withington of A. D. Little, to conduct an
assessment of what improvements in data storage density might be possible as the re-
sult of technical improvement. ODP also provided estimates of possible space
reductions from technical advances. The results of these studies are summarized in
Figure 2. This provides a snapshot of what might be expected in 1995-10 years from
now.
ODP estimates that 17,146 gigabytes (gb) of storage capacity must be available in
1995. Assuming that space available to ODP for computers will be limited to a fixed
amount (100,000 sq. ft.), only 3,247 gb could be provided in this limited space using
today's technology. ODP's planning is based on a 4X improvement in storage density
by 1995 due to technical improvements. This would provide a capacity of 12,990 gb
in 1995 which is still inadequate to satisfy the requirement of 17,146 gb. The A. D.
Little study projects a minimum capacity of 17,800 gb, about adequate to satisfy the
need. This estimate is based on the most advanced magnetic storage technology
expected to be available with some optical storage. A. D. Little also believes that a
predominately optical storage capability might be available in 1995, thus providing a
capacity as high as 71,200 gb. On the other hand, ODP's estimate of the maximum
capability that technology might provide is 44,750 gb.
ODP's plans reflect a continuing improvement in storage capacity due to technical
improvements as shown in Figure 3. But they believe that the rate of growth in re-
quirements will exceed the rate of growth in capacity and that requirements will
exceed capacity by 1992 if space is limited.
The Panel has concluded that substantial improvements in storage technology can be
expected in the future; however, it cannot be certain that the improvements will be
sufficient to satisfy growing needs if space continues to be limited. As can be seen in
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 ODP SPACE REQUIREMENTS and PROJECTIONS
1977-1996 .
DASD = Sin* Density
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Legend
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77
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YEAR
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T
fads 187 No 1~1 YEAR
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A DASD CAPACITY REQUIRED
Im ml 1st
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FORECAST STORAGE CAPACITY
1995
100,000 Sq Ft COMPUTER SPACE
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W P QASD STORAGE iEINE"
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