LATIN AMERICA - EXAMPLES OF POSSIBLE CONTINGENCIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88T00528R000100090003-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 8, 2008
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: February 28, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

1 --1
Approved For Release 2008/12/08: CIA-RDP88T00528R000100090003-0
28 February 1983
NOTE FOR: Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Constantine C. Menges
NI0/LA
SUBJECT: Latin America - Examples of Possible Contingencies
As requested here is a sketch of three possibilities.
1. Soviet deployment of cruise or ballistic submarines to the Caribbean
with basing in Grenada. In March 1982 Brezhnev threatened that the NATO
Pershing II deployment will be met with "analogous steps" close to the US.
Soviet hydrographic research service, the new Cuban port of Punta Movida and
activities in Grenada all point to the possibility of such an event.
2. Military Coup in El Salvador by the far right. Though a low
probability it might possible that the minority of far right officers
(10% - 15%) combine with the civilian far right and convince a sizeable group
of officers to take power in order to "win the war more quickly." The
probability of such an event increases the greater the uncertainty in El
Salvador about continued US support.
3. Latin American oil exporters debt payment moratorium. Mexico,
Venezuela, Ecuador and Peru will all be adversely affected by the decline in
oil prices. Their foreign debts total about $120 billion. What might be the
political and economic effects of their being unwilling or unable to meet
their debt payments later this year?
c4c
Constantine C. Menges /Nk-
Approved For Release 2008/12/08: CIA-RDP88T00528R000100090003-0