LETTER TO JOHN HORTON FROM WILLIAM J. CASEY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220003-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 26, 2010
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: September 25, 1984
• Content Type: LETTER

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/02/26: CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220003-7
- The Director of Central Intelligence -
25 September 1984
Dear John,
I was disappointed at the report I read of your speech in the
Portland Press Herald because it seems to me your public disclosure of a
discussion involving conflicting views in the Intelligence Community was
inconsistent with your professional obligations. I thought also that the
implication about my wanting the estimates to come out a certain way,
and that this had a policy purpose, was a distortion, or hopefully a
misunderstanding, of the way things work, as well as of the relations
between us. I must say that in reading your draft speech I was stunned
by the very unflattering references to a magazine editor and a scholar, whom
you call a writer, and "rich friends." All of these people are knowledgeable,
have quite a bit of experience, and are dedicated to helping our country
with analysis and information and I find it rather unfair to slough them
off by affixing labels to them.
A fair account of the estimate I believe you are concerned with would
be that there were differences of opinion thrashed out over a period of many
months as to the likelihood of serious instability in the country. I and
others felt it was something like one chance out of five; you and others
felt it was more remote. These two opinions were clearly indicated on the
first page of the Key Judgments along with a unanimous judgment that, despite
these differences, the country would suffer a series of incidents and crises
which would need to be monitored closely to protect U.S. interests. There
was no policy urged or to be supported except one of vigilance. The prevailing
view at the meeting is expressed in the minutes with this statement by a
member of the National Foreign Intelligence Board: "The Intelligence Community
has an obligation to prepare the U.S. policymakers for the possibility that
the country concerned will come apart."
This episode, rather than an example of pushing on the Intelligence
Community an assessment designed to support policy, seems to me to be a good
illustration of how we have gone to pains to see that all elements are
encouraged to formulate and articulate views and to see that all well-
substantiated views are reflected in each national estimate going to
policymakers.
It seems to me that your speech, as reported, also reflected that
estimates were fashioned to support policy views. John, if you reflect, I
think you will remember that you urged me to take action in support of your
policy views more than once. Your memoranda dated 28 September 1983,
7 March 1984, and 28 March 1984, urged pressing for negotiations with the
Sandinistas and the Salvadoran guerrillas and other policy initiatives.
These memoranda went well beyond the intelligence assessments which we are
charged with providing. As you are aware, the possibilities of negotiations
had been discussed and considered in the interdepartmental committee with
which you sat and in other fora.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/02/26: CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220003-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/02/26: CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220003-7
? ?
I really hope that on reflection you feel that all those concerned were
seeking to reflect their honest judgment, to discharge their responsibilities
as they saw them, and were engaged in a process which is designed to gather
and reflect the full range of views on difficult intelligence assessments,
and that we take considerable pains to make it work that way.
Sincerely,
7
~~cL t
illiam J. Casey
Mr. John Horton
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/02/26: CIA-RDP88B00443R001604220003-7