NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000500020051-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 51
• Publication Date: October 16, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Turkey-Iraq: Security Concerns .................................................. 4
Canada: Conservatives on Defense ............................................ 4
Jamaica: Closure of US Alumina Refinery .................................. 5
Japan-North Korea: Fishery Impasse Resolved ......................... 8
Egypt: Coptic Newspaper Reappears .......................................... 8
Special Analyses
Cuba-Africa: Moves To Expand Presence .................................. 11
USSR: Macroparticle Weapons .................................................... 13
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Former Solidarity leaders are continuing their efforts to
reestablish c other and to devise tactics for
overt action.
Western journalists report that Lech Walesa met senior leaders and
advisers of Solidarity over the weekend in Gdansk to discuss how to
revive the movement at the grassroots level. The meeting took place
in the church of Walesa's priest, Father Jankowski. Walesa met with
some of the same leaders two weeks a o Burin a workers'
pilgrimage to a monastery.
Several leading Solidarity advisers told the US Embassy at the end of
last month that they were still evaluating the mood of the country and
that it was too early to devise new programs of action. Some of the
advisers believe it would be difficult to carry out any program because
the remnants of active local chapters of the movement are isolated
and often do not coordinate their actions. Others, however, believe
the union's very fragmentation protects it from a police crackdown.
Comment: The leadership probably concentrated on how to
reestablish a degree of coordination between local Solidarity
activists. In addition, it probably debated how the regime would react
to their attempts to address church-sponsored worker groups and to
The movement's chiefs apparently cannot agree on such fundamental
questions as whether it should continue its boycott of regime-
sponsored unions and worker self-management organizations or
whether it should try to penetrate them. Some local Solidarity leaders
The leaders would risk reimprisonment under the terms of the recent
amnesty if they were to engage in opposition political activity. The
regime may hesitate, however, before responding in a tougher
fashion. Rearresting recently released political prisoners would
undercut Warsaw's efforts to improve its standing on the eve of a
To Se r
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Turkish Foreign Minister Halefoglu and the Deputy Chief of Staff
traveled to Baghdad Sunday for two davs of talks with Irani leaders
Press reports in Turkey indicate that the meetings will focus on
border security. They also report that Ankara wants to improve its
intelligence along the border and establish buffer zones there. ~
Comment: Kurdish insurgency has become a serious problem for
both governments, and no doubt is the principal matter of discussion.
The visit comes at an awkward time for the Iraqis, since they are
negotiating a limited form of autonomy for their Kurdish population.
The Turks almost certainly will try to undercut such an arrangement
because it could encourage similar demands among Turkish Kurds.
According to a senior military officer, Prime Minister Mulroney's
government is having trouble finding funds to fulfill its campaign
promise to improve substantially Canada's defense effort. Mulroney
has raised the status of the Defense Minister by elevating him to the
inner cabinet and placing him in charge of national emergency
planning. The new government also is committed to putting the armed
forces back into distinctive service uniforms and bringing the
headquarters of the ma~or commands-land, sea, and air-back to
Ottawa.
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Comment: During the election campaign, the Conservatives promised
? I to raise defense spending and manpower in the armed forces, but
i I continued poor economic peformance makes substantial increases ~
unlikely. While Canada has met-and will continue to meet-NATO's
~ 3-percent real defense spending growth goal, the low overall
spending level means that any increases the Conservatives are likely
~ to achieve will only marginally improve current capabilities. The ~
i elevation of Defense Minister Coates to the senior cabinet
~ committee-making him responsible to the Prime Minister rather ~
i than to External Affairs Minister Clark-may reflect not only a desire i
~ to give defense a high profile but also to avoid friction between Clark
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The manager of the ALPART alumina refinery, the largest US
investment in Jamaica, has told US Embassy officials that its owners
are likely to decide at the end of this month to close down operations.
The plant processes more than 15 percent of Jamaica's bauxite
production, earns 10 percent of the island's foreign exchange, and
employs 1,200 workers. High operating costs have long hurt the ,
profitability of the refinery. Only complete exclusion from the
governmgnt'c haiixitw tax could keep the plant open, according to the
treatment from other local producers and still might not persuade
ALPART to maintain production over the longer run. A shutdown of
the ALPART refinery would increase pressure to further devalue
Jamaica's currency, reduce government revenues, and increase the
30-percent unemployment rate. The gloomy outlook for Jamaica's
vital bauxite/alumina industry makes the chances remote that Prime
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~ 5 16 October 1984
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A Soviet official has told US businessmen recently that new
equipment orders for the Astrakhan, Tenghiz, and Karachaganak
"sour" oil and gas projects will be worth about $1 billion each.
According to the US Embassy in Moscow, the Soviet expressed
interest in US equipment but considers it risky to order items of US
origin. Several US firms that can supply equipment from overseas
plants have been contacted, according to the official, but obtaining
US engineering technology directly would be more complicated. The
official expressed willingness to accept direct bids. Reporting for
several months, however, has indicated a eneral Soviet olicy noY,to
accept equipment from US sources.
Comment: The US executives had earlier complained that the Soviets
would not allow US firms to submit bids as direct contractors on
these projects, and the official's statement, even with its
qualifications, suggests that equipment from US sources would be
acceptable. By using US firms only as subcontractors, Moscow
probably believes it can hold, the crime contractor responsible for any
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yesterday paves the way for Tok o to lift sanctions im osed after the
Rangoon assassination attempt.
of the n ions wou a total and could occur as early as next
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Comment: The North's willingness to settle this longstanding issue-
the last agreement lapsed in June 1982-is part of a broader effort to
improve P'yongyang's image in the West and will strike a responsive
chord in Tokyo. A senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official is
scheduled to visit Seoul next weekend and probably will explain that
relaxing the ban on official contacts simply returns Japan's North
Korea policy to its pre-Rangoon status and will help ease tensions on
the Peninsula. South Korea recognizes the sanctions are not
permanent and will not allow their removal to damage seriously its.
community by allowing its weekly to be published for the first time
since the late President Sadat banned it in 1981. The US Embassy
says the issue last weekend featured articles by prominent Coptic
politicians praising Mubarak for his program of political liberalization.
It also carried a spiritual message from the Coptic Pope, who is still in
government-imposed internal exile in a monastery near Cairo.
Comment: Mubarak is gradually easing the restrictions on religious
activity imposed by his predecessor. Sectarian tensions have
decreased during his presidency, but he is still concerned about a
possible renewal of strife between Muslims and Copts. The weekly
publication was allowed to reappear only after the conclusion early
this month of a trial of Islamic extremists implicated in disturbances
following Sadat's assassination. Egyptian Copts will now expect
~~ 8 16 October 1964
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Reuter says Soviet Politburo member Romanov stated in Helsinki
Sunday that Marshal Ogarkov "commands Soviet Union's largest
western forces" ...could refer to those in Western Theatre of
Military Operations opposite NATO's Central Region ...may
Dutch officials worried leftwing opposition will exploit media
attention to allegedly conflicting numbers of Soviet SS-20 missiles
...could undermine credibility of US and NATO data ...future
Dutch decision to allow NATO cruise missiles tied directly to SS-20
French President Mitterrand has announced that he will introduce
electoral reform bill in April ...probably will feature proportional
representation and redistrictino designed to aid leftist and centrist
Zaire plans to begin withdrawing its 1,100-man force from Chad
next week ...will take at least a month . trainino of 600
- Recent Soviet request to set up separate trade mission in
Zimbabwe turned down ...Harare did agree to permit trade
officer and small staff to be attached to Soviet Embassy .. .
request p r f Moscow's Ion standin effort to expand official
presence.
Soviet officials again requesting permission to base TASS
correspondent in Uruguay ...Soviet offers of cultural agreement
and briefings for officials before UN General Assembly ignored by
Peruvian President Belaunde has named Army General to head
Interior Ministry ...experienced in counterinsurgency and should
mollify military by strengthening that effort ...new Minister also is
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Middle East -Jordan's King Hussein going to Iraq today ...probably will urge
President Saddam Husayn to resume diplomatic relations with)
Egypt soon ...King may be concerned h
have not backed his move toward Cairo.
- Iraq claims its aircraft attacked a ship south of Khark Island
yesterda ... strik f I t Iranian attack on tanker
Friday.
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- Israeli consumer prices rose by record 21.4 percent in September
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muted ...wage increases of 17 percent on 1 November also will
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- E ypt recent) sold 19 older Soviet SU-7 fi hter-bombers to Ira 25X1
airo provided 35 MIG-21 and SU-7 aircraft to Iraq in i
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South Asia -Opposition parties firmly rejected Bangladesh President Ershad's
~ plans for holding elections and ending martial law ...large turnout ~
fnr noacofiJ nrnTCeTe lae} Cunriav uiae imnnrTa n} ehn~.. of
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i opposition strength ...protests will continue.
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President Castro's intensive courting of several African leaders
over the past three months apparently is aimed at bolstering
Havana's position in Africa and possibly at oHSetting setbacks
Havana may experience in southern Africa. These overtures, i
particularly to the leaders of Ghana and Burkina-formerly
Upper Vo/ta~juring recent state visits to Cuba, may be designed
to test their receptivity to closer relations with Havana that i
would involve a larger Cuban civilian or military advisory
presence. The Castro regime probably recognizes, however, that '
France has a major stake in the area and that a sudden influx of
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Castro accorded Burkinan Chief of State Sankara lavish attention
during his recent visit to Cuba. Their discussions focused on
expansion of Cuban medical, agricultural, and technical assistance
programs. Havana's newly appointed Ambassador to Burkina is an
expert on Cuban aid programs in Africa, and some Cuban
construction and agricultural specialists arrived in Burkina last week.
Ghanaian leader Rawlings was the highest ranking foreign
representative at Cuba's 26 July celebrations and during his stay was
decorated with Cuba's most presti ious medal.
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large Cuban military and civilian contingents in Angola and
Mozambique eventually may have to be withdrawn, and his recent
actions probably are designed to offset such major policy setbacks.
Havana probably views closer ties to black African leaders as a way to ~
influence Angolan and Mozambican positions in negotiations with ~
South Africa. Castro is becoming increasingly concerned that the
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Havana's fears of a forced retreat in southern Africa probably have
been heightened by the ongoing negotiations announced last week to
end hostilities between the Mozambican Government and the
insurgents, supported until recently by South Africa.
According to the US Embassy in Luanda, the Angolans also appear to
be considering an eventual reduction of Cuba's role in their country.
To limit the damage to Cuba's image resulting from a major
withdrawal from southern Africa, Castro may urge other African
nations to accept some Cuban advisers now based in Angola or
Havana probably will have increasing success placing civilian-and
perhaps security-advisers in West Africa, particularly in Burkina and
Ghana, where young revolutionary governments have voiced
admiration for the Cuban revolutionary model and have emulated
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jeopardize Western aid to these countries or upset their domestic i
stability. Castro is unlikely to ask them to accept Cuban combat ~
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The Soviets are developing a completely new kind of device to
destroy targets. Soviet research on electromagnetically launched
streams of macroparticles may eventually be applied in
developing air defense and space-based antisatellite and
ballistic missile defense weapons. Laboratory research,
apparently begun in the early 1960s, may possibly now be moving
A Soviet scientist stated in 1982 that he had a "film depicting
80-kilometer-per-second impacts that the Soviet Army generals like
to see." He disclosed that the USSR has conducted research using
hot plasmas to accelerate particles for an experimental weapon that
The open Soviet scientific literature indicates that the USSR has had
an experimental "gun" since 1966 that shoots very fine heavy-metal
particles-a macroparticle stream-at velocities of up to 68
kilometers per second in a vacuum. Experimental data from the open
Macroparticle streams differ significantly from the particle-beam
weapons under investigation both in the US and in the USSR.
Particle-beam weapons use subatomic or atomic particles that have
been accelerated to near the velocity of light. Macroparticle stream
devices would shoot much heavier particles at much lower velocities.
The status of Soviet efforts to ex loit the technolo for w a n
develo ment is not et clear.
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The experiments have been conducted since the late 1960s by the
Institute of High Temperatures and other organizations associated.
with directed energy and ballistic missile defense research. Space,
Research Institute Director Sagdeyev has an important role in these
studies. He was a spokesman of a delegation of Soviet scientists who
visited Washington this summer to make a case that the US Strategic
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Since 1981, the Soviets have been considering construction of a new
institute 160 kilometers east of Moscow for work on macroparticle
stream technology. In early March of last year, however, construction
The Soviet studies appear to be an extension of US ballistic missile
defense research conducted between the late 1950s and the late
1960s involving the electrical explosion of materials. The experimental
devices developed have been described by Soviet scientists and
military writers as "electrocannons" that use a new orinciole for
Before the Soviets could field an effective macroparticle stream
weapon, they would have to develop major components, including
power supplies and fire-control systems suitable for a combat
environment, and perform tests using afull-scale prototype. The
Soviet research on the Phalanx-like weapon may be a step beyond
laboratory research toward a large experimental or developmental
The current development of the weapon possibly could lead to
improved conventional air defense gun systems with extended ranges
and able to engage tactical missiles. It eventually could also lead to a
space-based ballistic missil def n n efensive weapons on
satellites.
~ 14 16 October 1984
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