THE SOVIET OFFENSIVE IN AFGHANISTAN TALKING POINTS FOR THE D/DCI

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00420R000501140008-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 14, 2009
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: May 31, 1984
• Content Type: MISC

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The Soviet Offensive in Afghanistan
Talking Points for the D/DCI
Prepared by the Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis
31 May 1984
The Soviets almost certainly launched the present offensive
to regain the initiative from the Afghan resistance. Their main
goals are to inflict a major defeat on the Panjsher Valley
guerrillas and capture their leader, Ahmad Shah Masood:
-- A victory over Masood would cripple one of the most
effective insurgent groups and deal a blow to the morale
of the resistance throughout Afghanistan.
-- It would also deny the insurgents a strategic area of
Afghanistan that overlooks the main highway from the USSR
to Kabul and is a major infiltration route from Pakistan.
-- The Soviets may also hope to destroy the civilian base of
support for the Panjsher insurgents by high-level bombing
of crops and villages.
The Soviets' largest campaign of the war--involving some
20,000 troops, mostly Soviet--so far has failed to achieve their
goals:
Fragmentary evidence suggests that the Soviets believe their
casualties have been high, considering the low level of fighting:
-- We estimate that insurgent losses range from 300 to 500
killed and wounded.
-- Afghan civilians suffered higher casualties than the
insurgents.
Soviet tactics in the present campaign have been largely
unsuccessful:
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 The Panjsher insurgents have not suffered serious losses in
the Soviet campaign, and appear likely to emerge with a
significant moral victory leaving them as strong as ever:
-- The insurgents generally have avoided fighting except
where they have the advantage of terrain.
The Soviets have been frustrated by their inability to
locate and capture or kill Masood:
The Soviets are establishing new bases and improving their
defensive positions in the Panjsher Valley, indicating that they
are preparing to leave a sizable force when the present offensive
ends:
-- They presumably hope to prevent Masood's forces from
using the valley as a staging base.
-- The Soviets will be able to control the valley floor, but
will be vulnerable to costly harassing attacks.
-- The insurgents will be able to continue attacking Soviet
supply lines outside the Panjsher Valley by using their
bases in the surrounding mountains and adjacent valleys.
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Failure to achieve major gains could cause Moscow to revise
its strategy and tactics:
-- The Soviets could decide to emphasize more mobile small
unit tactics--as they did earlier in the war without
E rest success
-- Moscow still appears reluctant to send major troop
reinforcements to Afghanistan.
r Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/05: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000501140008-3